Months of Inventory or Absorption Rate for Cupertino Real Estate

Cupertino is a red hot sellers’ market, but primarily or the most in the lower price ranges.  The higher the price of the home goes, generally speaking, the cooler the market gets.  Part of this is because Cupertino is not considered a luxury market.  Luxury homes are far more likely to be found in Los Altos and Saratoga than in Cupertino. Even so, there are areas, primarily in the foothills and west of Foothill Blvd., where high end homes can be found.

Yesterday afternoon I ran the “months of inventory” by price point in the city of Cupertino.  The absorption rate, or MOI, will tell us how long it would take for the current inventory to be totally absorbed by the market of buyers if no other homes came on the market.  The shorter the MOI is, the hotter the market is.  (Houses and duet homes only, not condos or town houses.)Have a look:

Houses up to $500,000: n/a (there aren’t any)
$500,000 to $999,999:    .2 Month of Inventory or MOI (2/10 of a month)
$1 million to $1,499,999: . 61 MOI
$1,500,000 to $1,999,999:   2.75 MOI
$2 million to $2,499,999:  infinite (3 homes for sale, none closed in last 30 days)
$2.5 million to $2,999,999: 1 MOI
$3 million and up:  n/a

It’s a little bit of a fluke that the 2.5—3 million group was “1”. There was one sale and it was just barely over the line – it sold for $2,505,000.  Had it slipped just a little bit, the group prior would have had 3 months of inventory (1 closing for 3 listings currently active). The trend is pretty clear: the higher the price, the longer homes take to be absorbed into the market.  We can fairly think of this segment as 3 months of inventory, which isn’t bad at all but is not “red hot”.

Hottest of the hot are houses listed for sale at under $1,000,000 in the city of Cupertino – they are flying off the market at .2 months of inventory, or about 1 week!  It cools as prices rise.

Cupertino Median List Prices Compared to Neighboring Saratoga, Sunnyvale and Los Altos

We know that the median sales price in Cupertino has been climbing steadily since March 1st (reflecting sales beginning in early February). How does it compare to nearby areas?

Los Altos is selling for the most of these 4 areas, but list prices are now falling. Saratoga was dippping but now rising again. Sunnyvale has been somewhat flat recently but improving. But Cupertino’s prices are making the steepest improvement. Perhaps these low prices are the drivers for the crazy hot market activity. (more…)

Home buyers (and sellers too) here in Silicon Valley like to “see the comps” when trying to determine fair market value or the probable buyer’s value for real estate.  Usually that translates into seeing what sold & closed escrow recently and for how much.

In a rapidly appreciating market and a strong seller’s market, though, the comps are not so much help as you might hope.  They are yesterday’s news!  What closed escrow last week was negotiated 30 or 35 days prior, in most cases.  By the time a San Jose area home is on record as a newly closed sale, it may already be out of date information. Not only that, but the MLS won’t tell us, at least not in most cases, how many offers there were or details about them - such has how many of them were all cash offers.

I see this mistake a lot in my real estate practice across Santa Clara County.  Clients want to view sales around a property they’re interested in. With our terribly severe inventory shortage, there may not be enough recently closed sales – so we look further out in location, futher back in time.  If prices are going up fast (as they are in Cupertino, Palo Alto and elsewhere), the only way you will be in step with the market is if you also factor in the appreciation that has likely taken place since each comparable property has closed escrow, whether that was 2 weeks ago or 3 months ago.  And that’s hard to guage.

What to do, then?

Your best knowledge will come from or be supplemented by information from pending sales; the most recent ones and closest ones are going to be the best, of course.  This is where your agent may be of great help to you either from the networking he or she does naturally, from direct experience on sales made or lost, or from proactively reaching out to listing agents to see if they can glean some information.

Addionally, you will want to factor in the number of offers a property is getting before deciding the price you will offer.  It is another very common home buyer mistake to look at the price of sold homes nearby, determine what seems fair, and then plough ahead without considering the level of interest that the house or condo is generating.  If there are multiple offers, you can reasonably expect that most of the time (if not all, in today’s market)  the sales price will be above the list price.  It will be unproductive for you to lowball (writing an offer more than 5% or 10% under list price).  Even if your offer is all cash, remember that sellers want the most possible for their property – they are not going to give you a huge discount on pricing.  Some, yes – in my experience usually around 2-3% – but not a huge amount off. They would rather wait a month and get a lot more money!

Factoring in the absorption rate (months, weeks or days of inventory) may be helpful to you also, especially if you cannot get info on the homes which are sale pending. (My Santa Clara County REReport includes this information, btw.)

In summary, don’t just look at the comps – they are a backward and incomplete view of what happened when the sale was negotiated.  Consider what’s under contract or pending now, and perhaps above all, take into account the current competition for the property you want.

Large Cupertino view home now available!   10387 Amistad Court, Cupertino California

Fabulous 5 bed + den, 4 bath home with lovely valley views from several rooms!  Room to accommodate two or more generations or live in help if so desired.  Lower level includes 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and bonus room or retreat.  Upstairs are the main living areas (living, dining, family, kitchen, nook), master bedroom suite, one more bedroom and a large den or office.  Living room, office, balcony and master all enjoy views.  Good sized, private yard.  Located on quiet cul de sac in lower foothills, a very easy drive.  Best schools, including Monta Vista High School!

Please enjoy a slideshow of this fine home, and click to see more photos as well as some panoramas.

This property is co-listed

10387 Amistad Court, Cupertino California is co-listed with Mary Tan and George Tan of Coldwell Banker in Cupertino, tel # 408 861-8832.

Please stop by our open house this weekend!

This fine home will be open Saturday, 3/31/2012 from 1:30 – 4:30 (hosted by Mary Tan) and Sunday, 4/1/2012 1:30 – 4:30 (hosted by me, Mary Pope-Handy)

More information on  10387 Amistad Court, Cupertino California – a beautiful view home in the prestigious Cupertino foothills!

We're sorry, but we couldn't find MLS # 81211438 in our database. This property may be a new listing or possibly taken off the market. Please check back again.

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Silicon Valley real estate’s market madness is back -in case you weren’t looking, this is what we are seeing in places like Cupertino, Palo Alto, Los Altos, and Saratoga – or anywhere in which there are great schools (especially with a shorter commute) or some other reason why a neighborhood is very highly desirable:

• multiple offers, bidding wars and sky high overbids
• non-contingent offers
• buyers willingly paying costs that the seller normally would cover
• pre-emptive offers

If this all sounds vaguely familiar to you, then you were here in the South Bay or San Francisco Peninsula and involved in real estate in 2000 (and to a lesser extent in 2005).  Whether you’re a Realtor, lender, or consumer trying to sell or buy a house or townhouse/condo in a great area, you knew it was happening.

One of the elements for this madness is the pre-emptive offer.  What is it?

When the real estate market in Santa Clara & San Mateo Counties runs red hot – in the seller’s favor – often the listing agents will direct that there is an offer date or deadline. Most of the time it’s about a week after the property is listed for sale on the MLS.  The reason for the wait time, of course, is to provide enough exposure so that all interested parties have a chance to tour the home, review presale inspections and to write up a purchase contract for it.  Otherwise, you have a foot race and only the swift have a chance. The lack of multiples will limit the sales price, so savvy Silicon Valley home sellers will usually set an offer date if multiples appear to be likely.

A pre-emptive offer is one in which the home buyer doesn’t wait for the offer deadline, but submits a purchase agreement ahead of time. Sometimes it’s even “sight unseen”! Obviously the latter will be considered shaky since the buyer could easily get a bad case of buyer’s remorse.

Smart listing agents will warn their home sellers about the temptation to accept a pre-emptive offer.  That Siren Song can be tempting!  But those would-be home buyers are unlikely to disappear if made to wait a week, so in many cases, it’s best to stick to the plan.

Median List price for San Jose 95129

In the middle of the last century, the Santa Clara Valley was bursting with vineyards, fruit and nut orchards, and groves of citrus trees. The mild climate and all of these beautiful blossoms mile after mile warranted the nickname, “The Valley of Hearts Delight“. Most of it was, of course, unpaved.  Following the end of World War II, the agricultural land began giving way to housing and industry, later more housing and high tech in particular, and Silicon Valley was born. And, to quote a song, “they paved paradise”.

Water can be somewhat scarce here at times – the sub tropical climate means mild temps and just enough rain, about 20″ per year for most of the San Jose area, but more as you get closer to the Monterey Bay and Pacific Ocean.  When we do get rain, where does it go? In the days of big agriculture, most of it found its way back into the drinking water: it was absorbed by the soil, and then it filtered down into the underground streams.  Wells tapped into this water source and the water was used for drinking, cooking, bathing, watering the crops and more.  Now, though, much of the valley is paved.  Water runs to gutters, and they lead directly to the bay, skipping the aquifers and also skipping the filtering process that the soil provides.  As you might imagine, this can screw things up a bit.

One solution is to create more places for the runoff water to get back into the soil and meander back to the aquifer.  The City of Cupertino has vegetated swales for just that purpose behind the library and city buildings, and a large sign explains why the landscaping looks the way it does (a dirt strip with a sunken section in the middle, but landscaped).  This is not uncommon in many parts of the US – I have seen it all over the east coast and the southern states – but a little less common here.  A great idea, I hope it catches and becomes more typical. Kudos to Cupertino for working to improve the local ecosystem and water quality! We need to do more for water reclamation. If it gets all the way to the bay, it cannot be drunk any more, but from the aquifer it can. So many reasons why we should be diverting water away from pavement and gutters and onto soil!

After taking note of this a week or two ago, I did some searching online and found a 2006 article by the Cupertino Courier (now owned by the San Jose Mercury News) about this same effort. It’s a well written piece and if you want to learn more, read on over at the archive:
http://mytown.mercurynews.com/archives/cupertinocourier/20060201/cu-news1.shtml

Today we’re looking at the real estate market for houses in some of the “west valley” communities along the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains – areas where schools are good, crime is low, residents enjoy scenic views of the hills (or of the valley from the hills, depending on the location) and overall, a highly educated population not too far from Highway 85.

Of the four municipalities, three are really very similar to each other in several regards.  Cupertino has the largest population – about 58,000 people – but Los Altos, Los Gatos and Saratoga are all similarly sized, somewhere between 27,000 and 30,000 residents.  The latter three also enjoy a traditional “downtown” area which is popular with pedestrians, bicyclists and motorists alike. (Monte Sereno has 4,000 residents, which is so small that the statistics are very easily thrown from month to month, so it is omitted in this quick study.)  Of the four, Cupertino, then, is the least similar due to size and lack of a central downtown area.

We’ll take a quick look at these areas now in terms of the real estate market trends and statistics for each area, considering just “class 1″ (houses and duet homes).  The charts used below are from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription, and they will be automatically updated each week.

(1) Median List Price (per Altos Research):

Los Altos and Saratoga are neck and neck for most expensive areas in which to purchase a house. Over the last year, though, Los Altos has seen a rise in the median list price. There has been a corresponding rise in demand with the success of several local companies in the region (Apple, Google, Microsoft, LinkedIn, Facebook), some of which have gone public and others of which are on the verge of doing so. Los Altos is more convenient to most of these.

Los Gatos, which is a little more affordable than Saratoga and Los Altos, has seen a very noticeable increase in pricing also, while Cupertino’s prices have declined a little.

(1A) Median list price of the bottom quartile of all four:

(1B) And, very interestingly, same data but for the top quartile – the luxury market:

Here we see Los Altos clearly overtaking Saratoga! And also that Cupertino’s pricing is significantly lower than Los Gatos in this tier, and also that it has lost a lot of ground in the second half of 2011.  (more…)