How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?

Today we’ll look at the monthly sales numbers for Saratoga, CA 95070 and also view live charts reflecting homes listed for sale on the MLS. Both houses and condos/townhomes will be considered as will varying price quartiles via the live charts.

Monthly Real Estate Update for Saratoga – prices of houses rising:

As with much of the “west valley”, the Saratoga, CA real estate market is a seller’s market, but it does not appear quite so overheated as neighboring – and far more affordable – Cupertino right now. Unlike many other areas, though, inventory is a little looser and is up month over month (which is seasonally expected) and year over year (not a seasonal issue, of course). 

Here are the real estate sales statistics for closed sales in March 2012 among houses in the 95070 zip code (click on link to read the full Saratoga Real Estate Report for houses):

And February

The median sales price, which is the number indicating that half of the homes sold for more and half less than this number, has risen almost 8% from a year ago.  This implies that more expensive homes are selling – and possibly that home values are rising too. The average is also up about the same amount year over year.

Next, please find the basic statistics for closed sales in February 2012 among townhouses & condominiums in the 95070 zip code (see the Saratoga Real Estate Report for condos & townhomes):

And February

To really understand the condo and townhouse market it’s better to see actual sales and compare them quarter by quarter, using similar units.  If you are interested in buying or selling a condo or townhouse in Saratoga, don’t go it alone or rely on online stats – give me a call and we will crunch the numbers specifically for your home and pinpoint the pricing.

Median List Prices of Saratoga Homes for Sale

First, a graph displaying the overview of the median list prices for condominiums and single family homes in Saratoga – all price quartiles combined:

In general, the seller’s market is showing itself for houses in the fact that list prices are rising.  Not so with condo and townhouse pricing. That’s a much cooler market.

Next, the median list prices for single family homes with a breakdown by price quartile. (Please note that the info would be even more precise if broken down by school district, but this particular program doesn’t yet filter by schools.)

In most price points, the list prices are now rising slightly, but most of all in entry level homes. In the last few months we’ve seen the high end home sales start to pick up in Saratoga, with a good run up in late 2010 before sliding earlier.  Starting to improve now, though.

And now, list price of condos by price quartiles.

Interestingly, the condo market is not enjoying at all the decent seller’s market seen among houses in this city.  Every price point appears to be suffering, but the high end most of all.

Inventory of both houses & condos in Saratoga

It’s seasonally typical to have more inventory in summer than other times of the year. Going back a few more years (see below), please note where the peaks are found – always sometime in summer. (Single family homes only.)

It’s less clear, but still visible, with condominiums and townhouses in Saratoga:

Average Days on Market for Saratoga Homes for Sale

Houses by quartile is not much different – DOM was rising across all price points and has been since August until spring, when the bottom and two quartiles (blue and green) reversed the trend. These are the “hotter”or improving segments of the market right now.

It is strangely disjointed in the Saratoga Condo market, though. I can’t explain why this had been so “all over the board” based on just this data. But since August, all four groups appear to be following the same general trend.

My suspicion is that the homes with the better schools are faring the best, but that’s just a hunch based on how well homes usually sell – it’s not provable with this info at hand.

If you’re interested in buying or selling a Saratoga home, please contact me. I’ll be happy to meet with you for a no obligation initial consultation.

Saratoga Real Estate Listings – Saratoga Homes for Sale – Condos, Townhouses & Houses for Sale in Saratoga

If you’d like to browse Saratoga homes for sale, I invite you to have a look here! Below please find all properties currently listed as available on our local MLS.  Please be advised that there are a number of different property types and school districts listed here.  For more precise information on houses, condos or town houses on the market, please contact me via email or complete a form at SiliconValleyHomeHunt.com or on my popehandy.com website.  Either way it will come to me and I will personally set up your search for a Saratoga property. (If you are moving to the South Bay area from far away, please also see my Silicon Valley relocation website for helpful tips.)

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 89. See more city of Saratoga real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $1,198,000 : 20376 Knollwood Dr, Saratoga
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,803 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,680 sqft
   
2. $1,550,000 : 13663 Howen Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,128 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,370 sqft
   
3. $1,898,000 : 19171 Allendale Av, Saratoga
   
   5 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 3,306 sq ft

   Lot size: 23,220 sqft
   
4. $3,895,000 : 19905 Sunset Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 2 part baths

   Home size: 4,800 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.17 ac
   
5. $1,988,000 : 20795 Russell Ct, Saratoga
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,238 sq ft

   Lot size: 22,200 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Interested in buying or selling a home in Saratoga?  I grew up there (and in Santa Clara), graduated from Saratoga High before heading off to college, and have been selling homes in Saratoga and nearby parts of Santa Clara County & Silicon Valley since 1993.  I understand the impact of Saratoga’s school districts on home buying decisions, the importance of various locations to market value, and resale concerns that can improve or detract from your return on investment.

Read more about my background on the Valley of Hearts Delight website (sister site to this blog) and learn why my past clients and other readers of the San Jose Mercury News named me “best real estate agent in Silicon Valley” in 2011. There you’ll also see my accomplishments/honors/awards, info on sales experience, and more. 

Or just take a moment to phone me at 408 204-7673, or email me at mary (at) popehandy (dot) com.  If you prefer, you can simply fill out a form online instead.

Today we’re looking at the real estate market for houses in some of the “west valley” communities along the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains – areas where schools are good, crime is low, residents enjoy scenic views of the hills (or of the valley from the hills, depending on the location) and overall, a highly educated population not too far from Highway 85.

Of the four municipalities, three are really very similar to each other in several regards.  Cupertino has the largest population – about 58,000 people – but Los Altos, Los Gatos and Saratoga are all similarly sized, somewhere between 27,000 and 30,000 residents.  The latter three also enjoy a traditional “downtown” area which is popular with pedestrians, bicyclists and motorists alike. (Monte Sereno has 4,000 residents, which is so small that the statistics are very easily thrown from month to month, so it is omitted in this quick study.)  Of the four, Cupertino, then, is the least similar due to size and lack of a central downtown area.

We’ll take a quick look at these areas now in terms of the real estate market trends and statistics for each area, considering just “class 1″ (houses and duet homes).  The charts used below are from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription, and they will be automatically updated each week.

(1) Median List Price (per Altos Research):

Los Altos and Saratoga are neck and neck for most expensive areas in which to purchase a house. Over the last year, though, Los Altos has seen a rise in the median list price. There has been a corresponding rise in demand with the success of several local companies in the region (Apple, Google, Microsoft, LinkedIn, Facebook), some of which have gone public and others of which are on the verge of doing so. Los Altos is more convenient to most of these.

Los Gatos, which is a little more affordable than Saratoga and Los Altos, has seen a very noticeable increase in pricing also, while Cupertino’s prices have declined a little.

(1A) Median list price of the bottom quartile of all four:

(1B) And, very interestingly, same data but for the top quartile – the luxury market:

Here we see Los Altos clearly overtaking Saratoga! And also that Cupertino’s pricing is significantly lower than Los Gatos in this tier, and also that it has lost a lot of ground in the second half of 2011. 

(2) Inventory:

The inventory patterns are pretty consistent over the last year across all four cities and the town of LG.

(3) Average days on market:

It is really interesting to see the days on market by city or area. Los Gatos (the furthest from the high tech giants mentioned above) has had the hardest time with home sales, and Cupertino the easiest. Cupertino is not the closest to all of these firms (though its home to Apple, of course), but it is the a very good value for people who are buying homes based on school performance tests. As others have said, if you’re buying for high API scores, Cupertino offers the most “bang for the buck”.

(4) Median MAI – Market Action Index:

What’s hot?  Everything is under 30, which is the cutoff between buyers’ and sellers’ market – all of these are buyers’ markets when the areas are taken as a whole:

But tease it out by price quartile, and we can see that Cupertino was a seller’s market for the most affortable houses for awhile last summer, but it has crashed back into the buyers’ market range again:

And among the most expenses homes or luxury estates, Cupertino has the “best market” but not by a huge margin:

Right now, Los Gatos has the most inventory and is the deepest buyers’ market – making it an excellent time to purchase a home there!  Of course it always depends on the micro market – the exact neighborhood, condition of the home etc. but overall it’s a very favorable time to purchase a house in all four of these areas, but Los Gatos in particular.  Cupertino is a little more affordable and remains a great bargain in the west valley areas of Santa Clara County.  High end housing or luxury homes are the softest market of all – a tough time to sell but a great time to buy.

Interested in buying or selling a home in Silicon Valley’s west side or nearby? Please call or email me and we can discuss your plans & goals – no obligation.  mary (at) popehandy (dot) com or 408 204-7673

How is the Williams Elementary School area of San Jose’s Almaden Valley 95120 doing in terms of the real estate market? Today we’ll look at the Williams area as compared to Almaden as a whole to see. First, the basic realty trends and stats for this nice section of Silicon Valley side by side for this year only (I pulled and crunched all of this data from MLSListings.com myself tonight, “deemed reliable but not guaranteed”):

1. Comparison of the average price per square foot for all of Almaden (including the Williams area) with just the Williams area of 95120:

While there is some fluctuation from one status to the next, at the end of the day there’s one number that matters the most, and that’s what actually sold and closed.  In the Williams area, homes have sold at an average of $418 per square foot while in Almaden generally (including this area), the price is $399 per square foot – about 5% less. This is tremendously important to understand if you are trying to purchase a home in the Williams area – homes there do, in fact, sell for more than in most parts (perhaps all parts) of the Almaden Valley.

Next, the stats for just the Williams area followed by the stats for all of 95120.

2. Real estate market statistics for Williams area of Almaden year to date by status:

3. Real estate in Almaden (San Jose 95120) as a whole (including Williams neighborhood):

4. Some graphs on the market in these two areas of San Jose 95120:

All Almaden - average sales price per month

And next, just the Williams area within 95120:

Average sales price per month in Williams School area of Almaden

Days to sell (days on market prior to going under contract) in Almaden…

Almaden (all) days to sell over time

Same data but just for the Williams Elementary School neighborhood in San Jose:

Wiiliams area of Almaden: days to sell over time

Supply and demand -  San Jose 95120 homes for sale and homes sold each month:

All Almaden homes for sale vs sold

Next, supply and demand in just the Williams area (most months, the ratios are tighter in Williams):

Williams neighborhood - homes for sale vs sold (supply demand)

New listings – first, all of Almaden (buyers will be interested in seeing the price spread):

Almaden listings by price range each month

Wms area price spread – it’s a smaller neighborhood with fewer inexpensive, and more expensive, properties:

Listings by price range in Williams area of Almaden Valley (San Jose 95120)

Months of inventory for San Jose 95120 (Almaden Valley or Almaden area) – six months is considered “balanced”, less a sellers market and more a buyers market.  It’s been pretty good in this corner of Silicon Valley, as you can see, except for the worst of the market in 2008-09 especially.

Months of inventory for all of San Jose 95120

Next, same info but just in the Williams subset of the Almaden market:

Months of inventory in Williams area

Note that the market in the Williams area has been a little harder hit than Almaden as a whole for the months of inventory. Why is that? My hunch is that it’s a couple of things: first and foremost, these homes are more expensive. The typical 4 bed, 2 bath home is about $1 million in Almaden generally but about $1,150,000 in the areas with the best schools, including Williams and Graystone.  The more expensive homes have been challenged by the financing regulations – these are not FHA homes and require a lot of cash down. Many would be move up buyers are stuck due to lack of equity.  A secondary reason may be the further commute.  Many buyers are more frugal now that gas is hovering near $4 a gallon.  Whatever the cause, these premier homes are not selling as well as many of their owners would like to expect.

List price to sales price ratio Almaden

And finally the same list to sales price ratio just in Williams:

Sale to List Price Ratio in Williams area of Almaden

I hope you’ve found this information and analysis helpful.  Whether you’re buying or selling, it’s very helpful to know the local market.  These types of posts do take a lot of time to produce, so I don’t do them so extensively so often, but I can do this type of thing for my clients. If you are looking for a Realtor who’s committed to giving you top grade information so that you can be best informed, please call or email me. I’d love to have the chance to chat with you and see if we might be able to work together on your next purchase or sale in Almaden or anywhere in Santa Clara County.

mary (at) popehandy (dot) com

Related reading:

Schools, API Scores & Maps of School Boundaries in San Jose’s Almaden Valley

The RE Report for Almaden Valley (updated monthly, stats also quarterly and annually going back 10+ years)

The Campbell, CA, real estate market for condos and townhouses has been a little up & down, but for houses it’s a stronger market.  That does not mean that prices in Campbell are where the owners or sellers would like them to be – just that residential real estate which is appropriately priced is selling pretty well.

Here’s a visual of market conditions (not prices) generally, through June 2011:

What about prices and home values?  Are they holding up?

Campbell houses for sale:  prices appear to be slipping slightly.  Some volatility is to be expected this year and next, so it’s possible to see some up and down (but probably not super dramatic unless you just barely have equity and it’s the difference between being able to sell without bringing money to the closing table or not).  Here are the figures for June – see the whole report on my R E Report site for Campbell CA houses:

The market for houses is good, but pricing is soft, as you can see in the numbers above.

What about for condos?

Condominiums and townhouses in Campbell – see the full real estate report online (updated each month around the 5th – 8th).  Isn’t it interesting that although it’s a cool or cold buyer’s market, prices there are actually inching up pretty noticeably.  That is very good news to condo and townhome owners who want to be doing a “move up”.

Next we’ll take a brief overview of the “big picture” in Campbell’s housing market by looking at statistics related to currently listed homes for both houses and condos or townhomes there. (Charts and data by Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and permission to use here.)

Median Price of condominiums and single family homes:

It’s interesting to see that there’s a rise in the median list price of houses for sale in Campbell whereas a leveling off with the condos and townhouses.

Inventory of houses and condos and townhouses in Campbell – both classes of housing are seeing a rise in inventory, but it’s more dramatic among houses:

Days on the market for homes for sale in Campbell – the two “markets” are now dialectical!

These numbers – for both houses and condos – can only give you a broad picture of what’s going on.  If there are no homes for sale in your townhome community and it’s in a great area, and you price it well etc., you should find it relatively easy to sell.  But if there is too much supply (too many similar homes on the market), it will be far more challenging to sell.

The residential real estate market, like everything else, is all about supply and demand.  For information on your specific neighborhood, please call me or email me today.

For more reading on Campbell CA real estate:

Affordable, Inexpensive Real Estate and Houses for Sale in Campbell, CA

Campbell, California: Once the Heart of the Fruit Canning Industry

Find Campbell, CA Houses for Sale:

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 23. See more city of Campbell real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $425,000 : 1270 Hoffman Ln, Campbell
   
   4 beds, 1 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,462 sq ft

   Lot size: 15,252 sqft
   
2. $799,000 : 4192 W Rincon Av, Campbell
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,512 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,695 sqft
   
3. $849,000 : 1776 Leigh Av, Campbell
   
   4 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 2,160 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,700 sqft
   
4. $708,250 : 130 Graham Dr, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,579 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,065 sqft
   
5. $830,000 : 117 George Ct, Campbell
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,985 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,702 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Browse Campbell, CA Condos Listed for Sale on the MLS:

Showing properties 1 - 3 of 3. See more city of Campbell real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $250,000 : 340 N 1st St #4, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 798 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,000 sqft
   
2. $374,950 : 55 Redding Rd, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 992 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,025 sqft
   
3. $175,900 : 2785 S Bascom Av #5, Campbell
   
   1 bed, 1 full bath

   Home size: 588 sq ft

   Lot size: 612 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

View townhouses or townhomes  in Campbell, California, listed for sale on the multiple listing service (MLS):

Showing properties 1 - 4 of 4. See more city of Campbell real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $413,000 : 1124 Capri Dr, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 1 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,336 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,150 sqft
   
2. $335,000 : 1116 Capri Dr, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 1 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,336 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,150 sqft
   
3. $499,900 : 672 Cypress Ln, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 1,358 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,742 sqft
   
4. $468,000 : 480 W Hacienda Av, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,597 sq ft

   Lot size: 920 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Silicon Valley home owners who are thinking of putting their properties on the market are wondering a few things:

• how much is my home worth?
• how long will it take to sell my home?
• how long will it take to close escrow?

Today we’ll discuss how long it takes to sell a home in the San Jose – Silicon Valley areas.

Of homes that have sold and closed in Santa Clara County, the speed of sale and the pending sale time frame depend a lot on the sale type. 

• For short sales, San Jose area homes are typically on the market for about 123 days, then once they are sale pending, it’s approximately 100 days until close of escrow.  Start to finish, it’s about 8 months long! 
• For bank owned properties in Santa Clara County, days on market are often around 75 and the length of escrow 38 days.
• With regular sales, the DOM is a quick 51 and length of escrow averages 39 days.  
• For all sales, the Days on Market was 113.

Let’s look at a particular area within San Jose to see how the numbers might vary.  We’ll take the Cambrian Park district of San Jose for our example (zip codes 95124 and 95118 primarily).  In Cambrian Park, right now there are 184 houses on the market and they average 94 days on the market.  In the same area there 95 pending sales and they average 76 days on the market. In the last month, there were 46 houses that sold & closed and their days on market averaged 52 overall.  Not every home, though, sold so fast or so slowly!

Days on market of Cambrian closed sales in last 30 days:
All combined average DOM = 52
Short sale DOM = 121
Bank Owned DOM = 128
Regular sale DOM = 40

These numbers could be further teased out by price point and school district – but you get the idea.  Some homes will be difficult to sell and some much easier! Even among the “regular sales”, certain homes will tend to sell faster: newer homes, homes on larger lots, houses which are professionally staged, properties which are priced aggressively (rather than “testing the market”).  In many cases, well priced homes that are in good condition and with no “issues” will sell within a month.

Complicate the situation with showing challenges (appt only, no lock box, tenants in the home etc.), a rough condition, difficult sale type or other problems (such as being too close to high voltage power lines, a busy road etc.) and those homes could take much, much longer to sell.

For information on your particular situation and to get a more precise sense on the timing, please contact me today!

The post below was published in November of 2009. For a more current look at the Monte Sereno real estate market, please see:

The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market

The Monte Sereno real estate market is trickier than most Silicon Valley markets to gauge because it’s so tiny.  With just four thousand residents, there simply aren’t that many homes for sale in Monte Sereno at any given time and there are even fewer solds.

Monte Sereno Real Estate Trends at a Glance

The info below is from my Silicon Valley REReport, which comes out monthly. Click on the link to see the full report on October’s home sales activity in Monte Sereno.

Home Values in Monte Sereno

Sellers often want to know, perhaps more than anything, what is happening to home values. “What’s my house worth?” is a perennial question because the answer can change from month to month.  Buyers want to know what any particular property should be worth – and often do not see eye to eye with sellers on this point.  Hence, few homes go into escrow (or under contract) each month. (The months supply of inventory has averaged 19 months in MS this year – more on that below – which indicates that there’s a bit of a standoff between buyers and sellers. Buyers aren’t buying in the vast majority of cases.)

Valuation is difficult to pinpoint if we only look at the closed sales of homes in Monte Sereno because there are not a lot of them.  The number of closed sales per month in 2009 has ranged from one to five, the average is 2.3.  In October there was only one sale. So when preparing a competitive market analysis for potential clients, I would consider a both list prices and sold prices in Monte Sereno as well as broader base of information, including what’s happening in Los Gatos in the part where homes have the same school district (and adjusting up a bit since Monte Sereno homes sell for a little more than Los Gatos homes do).  I might also have a look at the Saratoga market, since there’s a possible overlap there (buyers looking at Saratoga may also consider Monte Sereno). If you just look at the average data for a particular month and in that month just one home sold & closed escrow, your understanding of the market may be seriously off base. More info is needed.

So, too, in terms of understanding the speed with which a home might sell or any other question pertaining to listing and selling a home – it’s a good idea to also see what’s happening in neighboring Los Gatos and Saratoga.

In this post, then, we’ll consider what’s happening in Monte Sereno specifically (with both listed and sold data) but also cast a wider view into Los Gatos (95030) and Saratoga (95070) since these two markets are similar in terms of location, pricing and schools and tend to appeal to the same buyer pool, generally.  A Monte Sereno home for sale is likely competing with homes in the same school district in Los Gatos and possibly also homes in Saratoga.

(1) List prices of Monte Sereno Homes for Sale

Below please see an Altos Chart (used with permission – I have a subscription) displaying the median list price of homes for sale in Monte Sereno, all prices combined. (Altos uses list price data, not sold price.)

It is interesting to see the low point was in May or June.  In less expensive markets like Cambrian Park, that low point was in about February or March of this year.  The high end markets have been slower to feel the impact of the market decline, so the ripples are all a bit after the more affordable areas.

Next, see the median list price broken down by quartile:

It is interesting to note that the higher priced homes seem to be rising which the least expensive homes have fallen in terms of list price.  This is contrary to what is happening in “starter home” neighborhoods.

To get some grounding with a larger pool, here’s the Monte Sereno median list price as compared to the median list price of Los Gatos in the 95030 zip code (which is almost exclusively in the same school district) and also Saratoga (which has several school districts).

The market’s been a lot tougher in Los Gatos than in either Monte Sereno or Saratoga!  Saratoga is beyond the bargain pricing of a few months ago – homebuyers interested in Saratoga have found that out first hand.

(2) What about the data for sold homes in Monte Sereno?

For this I went to our MLS provider, MLSListings.com and ran the statistics myself.  Here’s a summary of the year to date listing and sales information for Monte Sereno, January through October 2009.

As you can see, there ae very few closed sales each month, which is why it’s important to always view both neighboring communities and the activity with list prices.

Of the 25 solds in Monte Sereno so far in 2009, the range has been from $845,000 to $4,250,000, with the majority of homes selling between 1 and 2 million dollars.  Here’s the breakdown:

Under $1 million: 3
Between $1 and $2 million: 14
Between $2 and $3 million: 4
Between $3 and $4 million: 2
Between $4 and $2.25 million: 2

Of the 25 sold and closed homes in Monte Sereno, two were banked owned properties (REOs). None were short sales.

There are three pending sales in Monte Sereno as of right now, with the appx list prices of $1.8 mil, $2.4 mil and $8 mil (the biggest sale in MS in a very long time).

Back to the question of home values: have homes gotten less expensive for buyers in Monte Sereno? Are sellers getting less money for their houses then they did a year ago.

Yes.

On our MLS, I ran the sold houses in Monte Sereno which closed from the first of the year through the 12th of November both for 2008 and 2009 in which the closed sales price was between $1 million and $2 million (since that’s where most of the homes are selling and it is a large group, less susceptible to swings in pricing from an oddly high sale now and then).

In 2008, the average sales price for this range was $1,641 with an average home square footage of c. 2490 (2489.73 if you’re splitting hairs). Price per SF =$659.11

In 2009, the average sales price for this range was $1,625,829.07 with an average SF of c. 2677 (2676.64). Price per SF = $607.41.

Buyers are paying an average of $51.70 per SF now as compared a year ago, which is 7-8% less.  Given that some areas are seeing cataclysmic price drops, this is not a huge adjustment, but it is significant.  If you are trying to sell your Monte Sereno home based on last year’s home values, you may be off by 5 – 10% (allowing for a margin of error). To get your home into the small percentage which is selling, it’s important to price correctly (and most Realtors will tell you that the number one problem causing homes to remain unsold is not marketing, but above-market pricing…the best marketing in the world cannot help on overpriced home to sell).

Buyers, find your desired home and make a reasonable offer based on current market conditions.  If the home is owned by must-sell (rather than “will sell if I get my price”) sellers, you may find that your offer is accepted or at least countered into a reasonable range.  Though most homes sell fairly close to list price, they don’t all. And remember, an offer is just an invitation to do business, and you won’t be able to buy if you never write the offer.

(3) Competition, Inventory and Sales of Homes in Monte Sereno

Throughout 2009, there have been anywhere from 22 to 34 Monte Sereno homes for sale (active, available) at any given time – the average for 2009 so far is 28.5. The “months supply of inventory” for Monte Sereno as a whole has varied in 2009 from a low of 5 months to a high of 36, the average being 19 months supply.  But some homes are selling, some of them quickly.  In October, the one home that did close escrow had sold in just 9 days.  The good homes tend to sell quickly, which is a joy for ready sellers but not so good news for slow buyers.  Each home is unique, so don’t assume that your desired home will be on the market for four months due to a misunderstanding of the average days on market data – it may or may not linger while you decide!

Inventory is down in Monte Sereno, as it is in much of Santa Clara County.  Would-be homebuyers lament, “there’s nothing on the market”.

A comparison of Monte Sereno inventory with Los Gatos, 95030 and Saratoga, CA (95070):

Again, Saratoga’s inventory has really fallen compared to the others.  It has risen in Los Gatos, which has the worst market for sellers of the three areas. Monte sereno has stayed relatively constant in terms of inventory.

As of this moment, there are 19 homes listed for sale and actively available in Monte Sereno. These properties vary tremendously in house size, acreage, and quality – ranging from modest ranch homes to equisite estates and luxury properties.  The “averages” of these houses: 251 days on the market, 4198 SF, 1 acre lot, list price $3,060,726.  Viewing just the $1 – $2 million range, there are 6 Monte Sereno homes for sale, and the averages are: 152 DOM, 2882 SF, appx half acre, list price $632.54 SF and list price $1,670,633.  These prices are close to the sold data from earlier this year ($607 per SF sold price was $635/SF list price).  But with 152 days on the market on average, that means that some or most of these homes aren’t keeping current with market trends (or possibly other problems such as too many showing restrictions, not enough photos on the MLS, a discouragingly low commission rate to buyer’s agent or a host of other potential issues – but usually it’s about the price).

(4) Monte Sereno Homes: Days on the Market

Some properties were expired listings and then relisted with other agents, with a new marketing plan and new price, but may still reflect the entire listing history (this is the case with my sold listing on Francesca Court earlier this year – I got it sold in 18 days but the MLS shows it as 244 days since it was on the market with another agent before I was hired).  The official DOM is often not a good indicator for this reason.  When homes are well priced, in good shape and well marketed they often sell within a month in most price ranges and areas within Monte Sereno.

Disclaimers aside, here’s the chart for the average days on market for all quartiles combined in MS:

And broken down by price quartile – as you can see, there’s quite a bit of variation as the market is not a unified block, but is stratified:

The highest priced homes fared badly in summer but are selling amazingly well, while the lower-middle quartile has suffered the worst.

Combined Monte Sereno, Los Gatos 95030 and Saratoga 95070:

Monte Sereno has far longer days on market than the two competitors of these three high end markets.  What gives?  It may be about the schools – Monte Sereno has Los Gatos Schools, which are very good but not as highly rated as Saratoga Schools, but MS sells for more than the same home in Los Gatos with the same schools. There’s a lot of competition for homes in Saratoga with either Saratoga or Cupertino (but not Campbell, so much) schools. Then again, it may be skewed because of the very small amount of data – “statistically insignificant” – unless your home is the one that’s not selling.

Want or need to sell your home? Look hard at the current competition and realize that maybe 10 or 20% of all homes will sell at best this month. What needs to happen to get your home into the pending sales group?  Ask your agent and then be open to the truth. Sometimes clients don’t want to hear something unpleasant.  I once had a potential client tell me, “this is what I want to list the home for, and I want to hear your enthusiasm for my price!”  It was an invitation to lie, which I won’t – and didn’t – do.  Agents don’t control the market.  If there are “better deals” than your home, then those will be the homes that sell.

Sometimes offering great terms can help improve your price. Like what? Terms such as carrying back all or part of the mortgage.  This does entail risk so be very careful here, but given that jumbo financing is hard to come by now, this might be exactly the way to proceed if you do not need cash out of your home immediately.  Also a possibility is a lease-to-own option. Go over these and other “terms” with your Realtor to see what you can do to maximize your net in today’s market.

Interested in buying a Monte Sereno (or nearby) home? Please contact me today!

If you’d like to speak with me about selling your home, I’d be glad to do a no obligation initial consultation, and provide you a copy of my book at the same time, “Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley“.

More information online:

More links on home selling – on popehandy.com
More links on home buying – on popehandy.com

Homes in Saratoga, especially in the Saratoga or Cupertino schools areas and in the lowest price ranges, are selling at an improved clip from a year ago. 

Below please find charts indicating the overall residential real estate trends for houses on the market and sold over the last year in Saratoga, California.   Of course the “market heat” will vary from home to home and area to area due to neighborhoood quality, price point, newness of construction and condition of home, school district (especially), and acreage, among other things.  So these general comments may not apply to your unique house, but will be a good indicator of the housing market in Saratoga generally.

First, supply and demand in Saratoga over the last year.  The number of Saratoga homes on the market is up 31% year over year and the number of sold properties is up 72%.  The trend line indicates a rise in both homes on the market and those sold.  June’s inventory was a bit smaller than May’s. Will inventory continue to contract? If so, it will put pressure on home buyers because prices may begin to rise as the inventory gets better absorbed.

Please note that while the market is improving very noticeably, there are still far more homes on the market than are actually selling. Sellers, take heart that it’s improving but do not believe that the selling conditions are so changed that your home doesn’t need to be priced aggressively and staged nicely to get sold. (Even in a hot sellers market, some homes never do sell because of price and condition, primarily.)

Months Supply of Inventory (absorption rate) in Saratoga for single family homes (houses) has been declining and is down 26.2% from a year ago at this same time.

Finally, a look  at homes between one and two million dollars in Saratoga (for sale, pending and sold).  I wanted an overview of what the market is like in this fairly hot segment of the market. 

This chart is helpful as it indicates price reductions and “days on market” as well as the current or sold prices. The clusters reveal that most homes that sell are selling pretty fast.  Very few homes languish on the market more than 6 months before they are sold, removed from the market, or repriced dramatically enough to get a new MLS number and position in the market.

Homeowners: it is a better time to sell now than it’s been in recent history, and the market is moving into your favor (esp in the lowest price ranges). To maximize your home’s value when selling, it needs to be postioned to sell fast while buyers have the most interest in it.   Buyers, the “shiney pennies” are being bought fairly quickly so if you see a good home in a good area with a good price, don’t wait too long to act.  If you can buy a solid home with “good bones” that needs a little work, you’ll have far less competition then if you buy the turnkey home that everyone wants.

If you are interested in selling or buying a home in Saratoga, or anywhere in the west valley communities of Silicon Valley, please contact me for more market information that is relevant to your homebuying or homeselling needs. I would be happy to meet with you personally and discuss your needs and the current climate for buying and selling.

How is the real estate market doing in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? We can look at a few key indicators (median list price, average days on market, and inventory levels) to get a pulse on the current market in the San Jose, 95120, area. Graphs below are from Altos Research; I am a subscriber so may present these to you here. Data used is list pricing. (To see the most recent reports using closed Almaden sales numbers from November, please view my Almaden Valley Real Estate Report, which is from another provider and is another of my subscriptions to get the best data possible for my clients and readers.)

From the solds last month and in prior months, we know that overall, the Almaden real estate market has been deepening in the buyer’s favor. Prices have been slipping, days on the market are lengthening, and list price to sale price ratios have wavered a bit.

Median List Price for Almaden Valley Homes

The graph above reflects the list prices of real estate in Almaden Valley, which is an upscale district on the southestern side of the city of San Jose. Interestingly, while the list prices of single family homes is declining, the list prices of condos and townhomes has performed almost the opposite in the last twelve months and now appears to be level.

Among houses, is it any different from one price point to another?

 
The main difference in pricing by Almaden quartile appears to be one of degree. The highest priced homes appear to be coming down the most, and more affordable or entry-level houses in Almaden are slipping very slightly by comparison.

For Almaden condominiums and townhomes, prices appear to be far more chaotic, with much more volatility in the highest price Almaden townhomes and condos:

Average Days on Market for Almaden Valley Homes 

First we’ll have an overview of the houses and condos in the San Jose, 95120 zip code (Almaden Valley) and their average days on Market.

The condos and single family homes for sale in Almaden have followed mostly similar patterns over the last twelve months and now are both rising. This indicates that it is more difficult to sell a home. Single family homes remain on the market for an average of about 110 days, close to four months. Most of these are not selling, but are either taken off the market, or put back on with a new price and new MLS number.

Next let’s have a look at each class of property by quartile to see if it’s varied or similar.

Single Family Homes

The four quartiles or ranges of prices in Almaden are all fairly similar in how they’ve been behaving except for the lowest price point among single family homes, which appears to have had a nearly steady incread of days on the market over the last year while higher priced points all had a dip (or a rally) over either the spring or summer).  Now, though, homes in the lowest two quartiles have levelled off, while it continues to worsen in the two upper price ranges. Hardest to sell are the highest priced houses in Almaden.

Condos and Townhomes in Almaden

While the list prices for Almaden townhouses and condos showed different patterns, the average days on the market for condos by quartile is simply a wild ride. Twelve months ago, the DOM for most price quartiles was close to 60 except for entry level condos, which were half as many days. In successive months, though, each price point behaved very independently of the others.

The two top quartiles are now selling faster then a year ago, but the entry level condos of the first two quartiles are now staying on the market far longer (and they are the bulk of the condo market).  Why? The condo market in Silicon Valley as a whole has been taking a beating while consumers choose foreclosure houses rather than condos.  Perhaps those living in upscale condos are not there because they can’t afford a house, but prefer the lifestyle that condo or townhouse living provides. Unfortunately, we don’t have that data to offer a definitive explanation.

Almaden Valley Inventory of Homes for Sale

Inventory is another key indicator on market performance.

The graph for inventory is less worrisome then days on the market. Inventory levels are close to flat among townhouses and condominums in Almaden Valley, while the numbers are clearly declining among houses there.

Again, let’s see if it’s the same in all price ranges or if there’s fluctuation. First, among Almaden houses for sale:

I redid this chart a few times to make sure there was not an error. It is oddly uniform across all price points.

And for townhomes and condos in Almaden:

Even within the otherwise somewhat disparate Almaden condo market, the inventory patterns are similar.

Overall, it remains a buyer’s market in Almaden Valley, and this is true for condos and houses and it is true in all price ranges.  Prices run from flat to falling, inventory is dropping (which may just be a seasonal fluctuation), days on market are lengthening.

Sellers need to make their home as perfect as possible. Buyers have never been pickier and the vast majority of buyers today do not want to buy a home and fix at all. Homes that need updating or remodeling either won’t sell or will sell for far less than you might expect. The greatest demand is for turnkey (read: perfect) homes with no issues (read: no busy roads, no high voltage power lines, nothing objectionable nearby).

Buyers, if you are one of the rare few who will buy and fix, the market is at your feet in many cases. Your main challenge will be in selling your current home, if you are a move-up buyer, or in securing financing if you do not have a large downpayment. The best bargains will come to those willing to buy and fix and to those with large cash downpayments where financing becomes much easier.

All of this market information is general. Your home may be unique due to things like views, construction, proximity to schools or golf courses, or any other number of factors. Please contact me for specific information relating to your home or one that you would like to purchase.