San Jose’s Cambrian, or Cambrian Park, area is a very hot seller’s market.  Multiple offers are not uncommon, especially in the Union School District, where schools are trending upward.  My Cambrian Park Real Estate Report has just been published with the updated numbers from the closed sales in April. Please click on the link to see much more information there.

Prices are up nicely year over year! Inventory is crazy low – just 35 homes for sale in April compared to 57 in March and 84 in April 2011. Days on market is far lower too. All around, it is a deepening seller’s market.

Even stronger is the Cambrian condo market, which is skyrocketing!!!  Please see the Cambrian Condominium & Townhouse Real Estate Report for all of the numbers, but I’ll include a quick summary below.

Here again, notice the ratio of active to pending homes, the sale vs list price (over 100%), and most of all, the tremendous rise in both the average and median sales price.  Few homes closed escrow in February, so it is possible that these numbers are a little exaggerated.  We will know more in a month – if it’s a trend or if this is a fluke.

Now let’s work with Altos Research’s graphs and get a feel for the Cambrian realty market in “real time”.  These use list prices, whereas my REReport uses sold data.

First, the statistics by quartile for houses in San Jose 95118:

Next, the stats and trends by price quartile for houses in San Jose 95124: (more…)

How’s the real estate market in San Jose’s Almaden Valley? Commentary and statistics…..

It’s actuallya lot hotter than the numbers for the Almaden closed sales in February might indicate; the last 2-3 weeks have seen a heat-up the likes of which I have not seen since 2000. Many properties are selling fast, sometimes with multiple offers.  We are experiencing this trend throughout the west valley areas: Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Palo Alto and on up the Peninsula.  These multiple offers are pushing prices higher. In many cases, it is much higher.  I’m seeing some overbids of more than $100,000 in some cases as well as offers with no contingencies for loan or home inspection. Listing agents sometimes write in their private MLS comments for other agents “no pre-emptive offers“.

What’s driving it?  There are years of pent up demand in which would-be home buyers sat on the fence, either because they expected further price drops or because, in the case of move-up buyers, they didn’t have enough equity to budge.  With record low interest rates and prices creeping up – combined with an infusion of cash from high tech employees with either great stock prices (Apple) or an IPO (LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, and more), there’s the classic case of more demand than supply. 

Almost every offer I’ve been involved with over the last month has been a multiple offer situation, whether in south San Jose, Blossom Valley, Cambrian, Los Gatos, or Saratoga.  Prices from $400,000 to $1,800,000 – all at least 5 offers, sometimes far more.  As Chris Trappani, the CEO and founder of Sereno Group says, “we’re seeing it now – the papers will report on it in a month”.

Stats for the Almaden real estate market for houses in February 2012 (click on link to see more info):

Note that the median sales price is up almost 15% from January and the average price rose 7% month over month. Year over year it’s not so good but from what we are seeing, it’s unlikely to look like this when the March 2012 numbers roll in.  Also note the jump in pending sales and the lower number of actives – less inventory, more absorption.

Real estate market conditions advisory

This week I’m having a deja vu from 2000.  If you were here in Silicon Valley then, during the “dot com boom”, you remember a frenzy with the hot sellers market, of home buying with multiple offers, and prices rising rapidly.

In some parts of the market, it’s back.

One of the ugly parts of that market is back too, the “non-contingent offer“.  I’m not talking about offers subject to the sale of another home (aka “contingent offers”). I’m talking about home buyers waiving their inspection contingency and their loan & appraisal contingencies.  (Not clear on home buyer contingencies? Please see my article: “Competing against multiple offers: contingencies and timeframes“.)

Listing agents know better than to give a counter offer demanding a non-contingent offer; that’s a lawsuit waiting to happen if the buyer feels coerced and later gets some sort of nasty surprise. But boy oh boy, do they know how to hint that it’s what they want.  And that’s not a lot different from demanding it.

Silicon Valley home buyers are given many disclosure and contract papers to sign when submitting their bids to purchase residential real estate.  It is important to read and understand them and the risks about which they warn.  One disclosure which is used – or should be used – on most every transaction is the “market conditions advisory“, which warns of risks in multiple offers and some of the ways that buyers may try to have the winning bid that may not really be a good idea in the long run.  The full name of the form is this: (more…)

The Santa Teresa area of San Jose is enjoying a hopping real estate market with the number of pending sales suddenly going through the roof! (Stat below care of Altos Research, to which I have a subscription. List prices are used.)

Homes in this part of south San Jose are often selling over list price as inventory drops. The days on market appears slow, but a lot of homes that have been “just sitting” on the market are now selling.

The great rush in Santa Teresa is, of course, in response to the list prices, which have been falling steadily in most areas – and making for incredible bargains.

Here are the August sales stats for our MLS “area 2″, Santa Teresa (per the REReport, also a subscription, which uses closed sales):

With more pending sales than active ones, you can see that most houses are now selling and the pace is quickening.  A major player in the market conditions of this part of San Jose is the situation with distressed properties: foreclosures, short sales or homes sold under pressure as they’ve got a notice of default on the property.

How big an impact does the REO or short sale label have on a home’s eventual sales price? How much more or less will a home sell for based on the situation as a “regular sale” or “bank owned” or “short sale”?
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“How long will it take to sell my home?” This is a perenial question among home sellers in Silicon Valley. Real estate professionals can look at the statistics and, when experienced and active in your local market, tell you what they believe will happen based on the absorption rate and days on market numbers.

We know that the national average is that for approximately every ten showings, a home should get an offer. It may or may not be an offer that results in a sale. Today’s market in the San Jose area is more sluggish than usual, but homes are still selling in many areas within a month if all is right when it’s offered for sale. One thing is for certain, though, and that’s that sellers have to see offers to be able to sell a home, and there are no offers if there’s no qualified traffic.

What kind of traffic is good enough? Three showings a week is decent after the initial flurry of a new listing. There will be more visitors to your property in the first week or two, both in regular showings and in open house visitors who are serious about buying. If you are not getting three showings a week (and it’s not a major holiday, a heat wave, or something along those lines), you have a problem. There are three most likely culprits to the problem: price, conditon, and marketing.

The feedback from showings and open house visitors is of key importance and will help you and your agent to understand the public’s reaction to your price and condition. Agents can ask (without being pushy) questions about how the buyers think or feel about the home. Or ask their agents. (I use a system called HomeFeedback.com that requests feedback by email with a very short 5 question survey. Normally I get about a 65% response rate from agents.) When most of the consumers or agents tell us “the home is dated” or “it needs too much work”, we know it’s an issue. Or perhaps the home is turnkey, but is priced 10% too high. Sometimes the condition issue is fixable but sometimes the only way to address it is in lower, more attractive pricing (when huge renovations appear to be necessary or there’s a time or money issue for the seller).

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Broderick Perkins of Deadline News lays out what is going on with our split Silicon Valley Market in his article Silicon Valley Haves-Have-Nots Rift Widens.

The article matches my experience that the wealthier areas of the valley (mostly in the west side communities of Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale etc.) have low inventory and multiple offers and prices are rising, wheras lower priced housing on the eastside is much more of a buyer’s market.