How is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 4000 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility.  Here are the quick statistics for the closed sales in the last 4-7 weeks to give a sense of how things are going. Sales data for April comes from my Monte Sereno Real Estate Report  and data for the last 30 days comes from me via the MLS (I crunched them this morning).

Median sales price of houses sold in Monte Sereno in April was $1,415,000.  For the last 30 days, it was $2,169,857.

Average Days on Market of houses sold in April was 97.  But for the last 30 days, it’s 78.

The sales price to list price ratio in April was 95%.  The last 30 days it’s up to 97%.

The market is better all around for home sales in Monte Sereno than it was just a couple of months ago. Next, let’s look at the live charts from Altos to see how active listings reflect the market as seen from viewing the solds.

Live Altos Charts for the Monte Sereno Real Estate Market

The median list price of all homes listed on the MLS in Monte Sereno and in San Jose – an interesting comparison!  San Jose has far fewer dips and jumps than Monte Sereno….Good improvement showing recently, though.

Pricing in Monte Sereno, California, by price quartile – the high end took a nose dive on its list pricing for a few months, but now is in recovery too!

Average days on market in Monte Sereno, CA, by price point Interesting that the most expensive homes are not the hardest to sell:

Inventory for all Monte Sereno listings over the last few years (back to 2005) – quite a jump in homes on the market in 2010 compared to normal for this small city:

About Monte Sereno, CA

Monte Sereno is a lscenic, upscale residential community of about 4000 people. It’s located adjacent to the town of Los Gatos and the city of Saratoga, California. There are no businesses in Monte Sereno – just Daves Avenue School, homes, the post office, and the city office building along Highway 9.  It is semi-rural. Some folks mistakenly think that whatever is happening in Los Gatos with the housing market is also reflective of the Monte Sereno real estate market. They are sometimes quite different, particularly as prices are higher in Monte Sereno and about 1/3 of Los Gatos is served by the Campbell or Union School Districts (while only a tiny sliver of MS is in those districts). A couple of years ago, I listed and sold a lovely home on in this city.  You can check out the information on my popehandy.com website (link above).

More info on this city: Official Monte Sereno city website Wikipedia article on Monte Sereno

Monte Sereno Real Estate

With very few exceptions, Monte Sereno consists of houses and estates or luxury homes (there are a few townhouses). Most lots are larger, usually at least a quarter acre lot.  One neighborhood enjoys a shared stable and horseback riding trails (those homes are on about 1/2 acre lots). As of this writing, properties currently available (listed on our MLS) range from about $1,300,000 to more than $5,000,000.  This can vary tremendously.  A move-in ready house will not likely be found in Monte Sereno for less than one million dollars.  (Last year a fixer on a busy road did sell for $750,000, though.) It is not uncommon to spend upwards of $1.5 million in home buying there.

Find Homes for Sale in Monte Sereno, California

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 9. See more city of Monte Sereno real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $3,999,999 : 18090 Daves Av, Monte Sereno
   
   6 beds, 6 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 7,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 43,560 sqft
   
2. $2,295,000 : 15630 Michael Ln, Monte Sereno
   
   5 beds, 4 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 3,924 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,583 sqft
   
3. $1,599,950 : 16172 Rose Av, Monte Sereno
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 2,212 sq ft

   Lot size: 17,327 sqft
   
4. $1,799,950 : 16215 Rose Av, Monte Sereno
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 3,508 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,147 sqft
   
5. $4,500,000 : 16036 Greenwood Rd, Monte Sereno
   
   7 beds, 7 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 7,336 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.17 ac
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Today we’ll have a look at the most recent closed residential realty sales numbers and then also view “live charts” which are updated weekly for Los Gatos real estate.  This segment of Silicon Valley real estate can be viewed from many angles: zip code, school district, sale type, view or no view, acreage, luxury home or basic home type…. This post will serve as a brief overview only. For information on YOUR Los Gatos subdivision or neighborhood, please contact me!

February 2012 sales numbers for Los Gatos real estate are in via my Real Estate Report.  Have a look:

(1) Houses and Duet Homes

Prices are going way, way up!  And yet the market is cooler – more homes are on the market, the list price to sales price ratio shrank a little.  The rest of the west valley areas are seeing multiple offers, overbids and rising prices – and we are hearing of them here, also.  That may not be reflected in the stats for another 30 days or so.

(2) Condos and Townhouses

More skyrocketing prices!  The LG condo market has been very challenged – but now there seems to be a great turnaround. Have a look at the chart below!

Next we’ll have a quick look at the town by zip code and will use Altos Research charts and graphs (using list prices, not sold ones) to get a pulse on the market.  Disclaimers aside, here’s the broad overview by zip code – hope you find this helpful!  I will be using “live charts” here so they will always be current!

95030 stats:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in LOS GATOS, CA95030 as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$1,963,038	Average List Price:	$2,754,730
Total Inventory:	45	Price per Square Foot:	$734
Average Home Size:	2,812	Median Lot Size:	33,335
Average # Beds:	3.74	Average # Baths:	3.29
Homes Absorbed:	3	Newly Listed:	3
Days on Market:	205	Average Age:	50

Continue via link for more information on Los Gatos real estate trends and statistics.

95032 residential real estate statistics:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in LOS GATOS, CA95032 as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$1,335,885	Average List Price:	$1,892,544
Total Inventory:	66	Price per Square Foot:	$618
Average Home Size:	2,180	Median Lot Size:	10,517
Average # Beds:	3.83	Average # Baths:	3.12
Homes Absorbed:	7	Newly Listed:	7
Days on Market:	109	Average Age:	47

And a look at Los Gatos “in town” as a whole:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in LOS GATOS, CA as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$1,301,496	Average List Price:	$1,828,065
Total Inventory:	184	Price per Square Foot:	$554
Average Home Size:	2,405	Median Lot Size:	26,674
Average # Beds:	3.67	Average # Baths:	3.01
Homes Absorbed:	13	Newly Listed:	15
Days on Market:	149	Average Age:	45

 

95033 (Los Gatos Mountains) real estate info:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in LOS GATOS, CA95033 as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$803,585	Average List Price:	$1,207,157
Total Inventory:	73	Price per Square Foot:	$364
Average Home Size:	2,344	Median Lot Size:	110,877
Average # Beds:	3.49	Average # Baths:	2.75
Homes Absorbed:	4	Newly Listed:	5
Days on Market:	153	Average Age:	39

 

Monte Sereno shares many services with LG so I will share these stats also:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in MONTE SERENO, CA95030 as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$2,447,077	Average List Price:	$2,648,285
Total Inventory:	18	Price per Square Foot:	$688
Average Home Size:	3,429	Median Lot Size:	37,139
Average # Beds:	4.16	Average # Baths:	3.64
Homes Absorbed:	2	Newly Listed:	2
Days on Market:	171	Average Age:	40

Los Gatos is a very complex real estate market because there are so many variables, including:

• proximity to downtown (“walk to town” always a huge plus)
• school district (“Los Gatos Schools” usually strongly preferred)
• historic nature of homes & neighborhoods
• slope and usability of the land
• views
• neighborhood amenities (cabana, nearby park, walkability)
• access to popular venues and locations (parks, shopping, schools)
• negative features such as busy roads, high voltage lines, being too close to freeways/trains, natural hazards such as earthquake faults etc.
• type of sale (distressed or regular sale)

Often homes in Los Gatos will have some positive and some negative features, and the same goes for the location.

How is the Williams Elementary School area of San Jose’s Almaden Valley 95120 doing in terms of the real estate market? Today we’ll look at the Williams area as compared to Almaden as a whole to see. First, the basic realty trends and stats for this nice section of Silicon Valley side by side for this year only (I pulled and crunched all of this data from MLSListings.com myself tonight, “deemed reliable but not guaranteed”):

1. Comparison of the average price per square foot for all of Almaden (including the Williams area) with just the Williams area of 95120:

While there is some fluctuation from one status to the next, at the end of the day there’s one number that matters the most, and that’s what actually sold and closed.  In the Williams area, homes have sold at an average of $418 per square foot while in Almaden generally (including this area), the price is $399 per square foot – about 5% less. This is tremendously important to understand if you are trying to purchase a home in the Williams area – homes there do, in fact, sell for more than in most parts (perhaps all parts) of the Almaden Valley.

Next, the stats for just the Williams area followed by the stats for all of 95120.

2. Real estate market statistics for Williams area of Almaden year to date by status:

3. Real estate in Almaden (San Jose 95120) as a whole (including Williams neighborhood):

4. Some graphs on the market in these two areas of San Jose 95120:

All Almaden - average sales price per month

And next, just the Williams area within 95120:

Average sales price per month in Williams School area of Almaden

Days to sell (days on market prior to going under contract) in Almaden…

Almaden (all) days to sell over time

Same data but just for the Williams Elementary School neighborhood in San Jose:

Wiiliams area of Almaden: days to sell over time

Supply and demand -  San Jose 95120 homes for sale and homes sold each month:

All Almaden homes for sale vs sold

Next, supply and demand in just the Williams area (most months, the ratios are tighter in Williams):

Williams neighborhood - homes for sale vs sold (supply demand)

New listings – first, all of Almaden (buyers will be interested in seeing the price spread):

Almaden listings by price range each month

Wms area price spread – it’s a smaller neighborhood with fewer inexpensive, and more expensive, properties:

Listings by price range in Williams area of Almaden Valley (San Jose 95120)

Months of inventory for San Jose 95120 (Almaden Valley or Almaden area) – six months is considered “balanced”, less a sellers market and more a buyers market.  It’s been pretty good in this corner of Silicon Valley, as you can see, except for the worst of the market in 2008-09 especially.

Months of inventory for all of San Jose 95120

Next, same info but just in the Williams subset of the Almaden market:

Months of inventory in Williams area

Note that the market in the Williams area has been a little harder hit than Almaden as a whole for the months of inventory. Why is that? My hunch is that it’s a couple of things: first and foremost, these homes are more expensive. The typical 4 bed, 2 bath home is about $1 million in Almaden generally but about $1,150,000 in the areas with the best schools, including Williams and Graystone.  The more expensive homes have been challenged by the financing regulations – these are not FHA homes and require a lot of cash down. Many would be move up buyers are stuck due to lack of equity.  A secondary reason may be the further commute.  Many buyers are more frugal now that gas is hovering near $4 a gallon.  Whatever the cause, these premier homes are not selling as well as many of their owners would like to expect.

List price to sales price ratio Almaden

And finally the same list to sales price ratio just in Williams:

Sale to List Price Ratio in Williams area of Almaden

I hope you’ve found this information and analysis helpful.  Whether you’re buying or selling, it’s very helpful to know the local market.  These types of posts do take a lot of time to produce, so I don’t do them so extensively so often, but I can do this type of thing for my clients. If you are looking for a Realtor who’s committed to giving you top grade information so that you can be best informed, please call or email me. I’d love to have the chance to chat with you and see if we might be able to work together on your next purchase or sale in Almaden or anywhere in Santa Clara County.

mary (at) popehandy (dot) com

Related reading:

Schools, API Scores & Maps of School Boundaries in San Jose’s Almaden Valley

The RE Report for Almaden Valley (updated monthly, stats also quarterly and annually going back 10+ years)

How’s the Campbell, California, real estate market? There are always micro-markets to follow, narrowing what’s viewed to neighborhoods, school districts, and price point. In general, though, it’s a healthy market for this upwardly trending Silicon Valley city with a quaint downtown, good schools and more affordability than might be expected. For houses, clearly, prices are nudging up!

Each month I have a site specifically producing the Silicon Valley real estate market trends (at least for that part of Silicon Valley which is within Santa Clara County). You can see the report for Campbell houses & duet homes here and the condominium and townhouse report here. Just below, I’ll post the basic numbers/summary, though, for those who want a quick view of the market:

(1) Single Family homes (houses/duet homes) in Campbell:

(2) Condominiums and townhouses in Campbell:

How is the real estate market in the Willow Glen area of San Jose?  There are multiple ways of viewing it – via price point, school district, proximity to “downtown Willow Glen”, by numbers or percentages of distressed sales (sale type), and many more criteria.  Today we’ll look at the broad market numbers for the MLS “area 10″ (all of Willow Glen) and at times just the zip code for San Jose 95125, which covers the majority of the Willow Glen area.  This post will only cover houses or “single family homes”, not condominiums or townhomes.

I ran the months of inventory for homes in Willow Glen (our MLS area 10) by sale type.  Here’s what I found – most of the market appears to have about 4.95 months of inventory, with short sales being considerably longer.  (This may have had different results had I isolated certain school areas or price points – this is a “sweeping view” of the area only.) The National Association of Realtors says that less than 6 months is a sellers market, but for our area, this is fairly “cool” and most sellers would not find the market to be all that much in their favor. (Six months is supposed to be a balanced market.)

It is unusual for there to be so little variation in the MOI, so I double checked but this appears correct. Often bank owned homes or REOs fly off the market.  Odd that it’s not happening here, too.

Next, a selection of statistics and trends in the numbers from my REReport for Willow Glen (click on link for more info) – prices here reflect sold prices (median and average), not list prices:

Prices appear down from the prior month but up from a year ago.  That’s good news for Willow Glen home owners, who hope that the worst is now behind us.  Days on market are better than the previous month (but worse than a year ago) and inventory is up from last month but almost the same – just a little less – than a year ago.  It’s a mixed bag.

The next batch of info comes via my MLS, which I pulled together using a new tool, the Realtors Property Resource.  What I like about this set is that it includes distressed properties (banked owned homes or REOs as well as short sales and pre-foreclosures).

If the lack of new notices of default continues, we’ll see a lot of improvement in the Willow Glen market.

Next let’s look at the data provided by Altos Research (which uses list prices rather than sales prices). This is helpful as it views the listing activity by price quartile. That is, you can see that “the market” for the top tier or luxury homes in Willow Glen is behaving a bit differently from entry level houses in the same general area.

First, the median list price for San Jose 95125 (which covers about 90% or more of Willow Glen), going back as far as 2005:

It looks rather dismal, taken historically, until you pause to note the recent and very welcome uptick.

Next, the same data but broken down by price quartile - I think it is very interesting that the top tier of pricing there is at almost the same point as it was at the beginning of this time period. That certainly isn’t true for the other groups!

Right now the three lower price ranges seem to be moving up while the luxury home prices are moving the opposite direction.

Same data but just the last one year – not so dramatic:

So how’s the market? If your house or the one you want to purchase is a short sale in the highest pricing strata, the market is unduly soft. If your home is a regular sale in a lower price point, it may be completely different.

When I work with sellers and buyers on “their” market, I run the numbers every which way, but tailored to the home they own or wish to own – the schools, the price point, the sale type, how many distressed homes are nearby etc. The market is not one monolithic creature, but instead is a patchwork of many micro markets.

For information on your micro-market, please contact me! Should we decide to work together in buying or selling your home, I will provide you current and pinpointed market information.

How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a cold “buyer’s market” overall.  But look closer and it is something of a mixed bag.  Prices are better for buyers, but there’s not much from which to pick.

Almaden Valley Inventory of Houses for Sale

Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory.  What’s happening?

First, let’s see what “usually” happens in he 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale.  Here’s a look at the last 6 years, care of Altos Research:

Normally our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later.  This year it looks like we have hit the bottom and inventory is nudging up again, but not as dramatically as we have seen in recent years.

Perhaps the whole cycle is running a little late.  The peak in 2009 was around July 1st, but in 2010 the peak was around October 1st – it does move around a little.

Since we are seeing somewhat softer prices than a year ago, a couple of my clients have told me that they’ve decided to hold off on selling for now.  It is very possible that they are representative of how other sellers are feeling too – so there may be a little restriction on inventory this season while prices are down.

The impact on sales is not hard to predict: more of the available inventory is being bought up.  Often the ratio of pendings to available runs anywhere from about 50% to 70% (so 1 pending for every 2 available = 50%).  Right now, though, the ratio is 81%.  Buyers still have to buy.  (So sellers, the odds are better for selling now as opposed to when there’s more inventory.)

How are the Days on Market in 95120?

Here’s a view of all price points in Almaden over the last 3 years combined:

Next, one year with the four price quartiles separated out. See how much tougher it is to sell a “luxury home” than “entry level” in this part of San Jose now. All but the highest tier are improving now.

What about list prices of Almaden homes for sale?

The median list price is slipping, which is great for buyers – if they can find anything that they want to buy!

And here’s the data by price quartile across all of Almaden for the last year:

Remember, please, that it may vary if you’re in a more or less desirable area, have more or less land, the house is more or less remodeled, etc. – these are general trends!

Looking closer in time, let’s have a peek at the last 30 days:

It’s pretty flat in the lower price points right now.

Median List Price Per Square Feet in San Jose 95120

Anyone buying now has the benefit of getting much more house for the money than a few years ago:

Here’s a look at the last year by price quartile:

Finally, if interested, you can see how this area compares to others nearby – if you like what you see, you can sign up to get updated weekly.

How are the sales of condos and townhouses in the San Jose, Santa Clara County or Silicon Valley area? Just as with houses, the market is getting more active… things are picking up.  The trend is for increasing sales – pending condo sales in Santa Clara County are rising each week.

Nov 1 – Nov 7 = 116 newly sold (sale pending) condominiums and townhouses
Nov 8 – Nov 14 = 123
Nov 15 – Nov 21 = 129

Year over year, it’s up dramatically too.  Nov 1 – 22 2009 = 234 newly pending sales and Nov 1 – 22, 2010 = 366 newly pending sales (that’s a 64% increase).  That is a very huge increase!

Looking at closed sales and comparing it to two or three weeks ago, we see improvement.  Here’s a graph showing the months of inventory for condominiums and townhouses in Santa Clara County, San Jose, Sunnyvale and Los Gatos (as samples). Below please find the months of inventory for all sale types (REOs, short sales and regular sales) and just short sales.  Countywide and in most places, it remains much harder to sell a “short sale listing” than a regular one.

Los Gatos is odd in that the short sales are going faster than the regular sales.  As you can see, that’s not the norm for the county!  My best guess is that the good schools and low prices make short sales in Los Gatos very attractive.  We might find this same trend in other areas with exceptional schools such as Almaden, Saratoga, Cupertino and Los Altos.

Sunnyvale is still struggling but it has improved from the last time I checked the numbers on Nov 13 2010.

Sereno Group Real Estate just released its annual real estate market trends report for Santa Clara County, San Mateo County and Santa Cruz County.(The link will take you to a pdf of the report, which is a 1.6 MB file so allow a little time for downloading.)

The study covers nearly two years in these three Bay Area Counties: January 2008 to December 2009.

The report is free and does not require registration to be viewed.

We hope that you find the report informative and helpful.

Beautiful Willow Glen is one of San Jose’s many districts, but it once was a separate town until less than a hundred years ago, when the need for a better sewage system nudged the townfolk to vote in favor of annexation to San Jose.  It maintains a strong & independent identity.

To speak of “the Willow Glen real estate market” is to try to include divergent neighborhoods, school districts, architecture, price points and locations. Below please find a general overview of the market for Willow Glen houses & duet homes as of March 20, 2010. (Numbers from MLSListings.com, crunched by Mary Pope-Handy. Homes listed as “sold” were closed within the last 30 days – as of today.)

The months of inventory indicates that it is a seller’s market in Willow Glen (less than 6 months is the tipping point) overall.  Please note that there’s some variation, though, from one school district to the next.  You’ll also find variation between price points, whether or not the home is distressed, etc.

Schools:  most of Willow Glen belongs to the San Jose Unified School District.  A small section of Willow Glen is a part of the Campbell Union High School District.  (CUHSD has pretty good schools so this area is often prized for that reason.) And a tiny little sliver actually belongs to the East Side Union High School District – very few homes fall into this section so it’s not addressed specifically.

Areas: Willow Glen has many neighborhoods within it, ranging from Palm Haven and north Willow Glen to the Birdlands and the Willows at another and many others inbetween.  There are some areas more prized than others, of course.  Being close to the downtown area (and away from freeways, for instance) can dramatically increase the sales price and marketability of the home.   Certain neighborhoods have more charming architecture, larger trees along the street, wider roads or other plusses that drive their value up.

Price points and selling conditions:  In addition to these factors, we also must consider the price point of the home as well as whether a home is being sold without undue pressure or if it is a distressed sale, that is, a bank owned or short sale.  Regular sales usually sell for more (and buyers know that normally they will be given both disclosures and presale inspections prior to drafting their purchase offer).

In most of Silicon Valley, the “hottest” segment of the market is the most affordable.  For a closer look at this subset of the San Jose real estate market, I have broken it down into major groups, the first one being homes priced below $729,000 (which is close to the “conforming jumbo” loan cutoff).  Below, please notice that there is a significant difference between the months of inventory from one school district to the next as well as one sale type to the next.  In Willow Glen right now, the sweet spot of the market are homes priced under $729,000 and located in the Campbell Union High School District (not San Jose Unified). 

If we look at the next pricing tier of $729,000 to $1,200,000, we see that things cool off considerably. This is true in most of the rest of Santa Clara County, too.  The lowest priced houses are tending to sell the best right now.

In this tier, the months of inventory are much longer overall and in some cases, there have been no recent sales and the prospects are fairly dismal. The odds are improved for this group if the home is a “normal sale”, at least.

And what of the highest priced homes in Willow Glen? This is the toughest market overall.

With an average months of inventory of 10.67 for all school districts or 9.33 months for San Jose Unified, it is a real challenge to get a high end home sold in Willow Glen today. The Willow Glen Luxury home market saw just 3 homes closed last month.  The only way for these homes to sell is to get the price to a painful level for the sellers, unfortunately.  Buyers want a bargain – and they are voting with their feet, deciding that most of what’s on the market in this price point in Willow Glen is overpriced.

It is very important for home sellers to be realistic when pricing their homes.  Setting the offering price where you’d like it to be is not a smart strategy.  If your segment of the market has 10 months of inventory, you have got to seriously undercut the rest of the homes to get yours sold!

Buyers, if you are hoping to scoop up a Willow Glen bargain by finding a short sale or bank owned property, you’d better be ready to act fast if one comes on the market in your price range. As you can see, there aren’t many of them – and they’re selling fast!  You may be able to find a “regular sale” for a bit more – the delta between regular sales and short sales is often 10-20%, depending on a lot of variables.  Even among the regular sales, in the lowest priced houses in this area, they aren’t lasting too long.  The good ones go fast!

If you’d like to have a better understanding of your area within Willow Glen, please call me for a confidential appointment.

Legalese:  this post and content, like all entries on this blog, are copyrighted. Do not copy without my express, written permission.

Economists are mixed on what will happen in 2010 and beyond, but many think that this year will be better than last, and 2011 will be a “hot” market again as prices are largely undervalued right now.

The Santa Teresa area of San Jose is enjoying a hopping real estate market with the number of pending sales suddenly going through the roof! (Stat below care of Altos Research, to which I have a subscription. List prices are used.)

Homes in this part of south San Jose are often selling over list price as inventory drops. The days on market appears slow, but a lot of homes that have been “just sitting” on the market are now selling.

The great rush in Santa Teresa is, of course, in response to the list prices, which have been falling steadily in most areas – and making for incredible bargains.

Here are the August sales stats for our MLS “area 2″, Santa Teresa (per the REReport, also a subscription, which uses closed sales):

With more pending sales than active ones, you can see that most houses are now selling and the pace is quickening.  A major player in the market conditions of this part of San Jose is the situation with distressed properties: foreclosures, short sales or homes sold under pressure as they’ve got a notice of default on the property.

How big an impact does the REO or short sale label have on a home’s eventual sales price? How much more or less will a home sell for based on the situation as a “regular sale” or “bank owned” or “short sale”?

Buyers are voting with their wallets. Uncertainty causes buyers to be unwilling to pay top dollar. In some cases, the bottom of the heap is short sales – because the condition is less known (there are no pre-sale inspections) and even more, because the time in which the bank eventually responds, if ever, is likewise unknown. In other cases, REOs sell for the lowest amount because the condition of the home may be especially poor. Some REOs are “stripped”, with whole kitchens missing, trim missing etc. I recently visited a Willow Glen REO that even had a missing shower head in addition to the water heater, kitchen appliances, and windowsill.

Regular sales DO sell for more. How much more? Here are the numbers, which may surprise you. I looked at both 95119 (which is most of “Santa Teresa”) but also our MLS “area 2″, looked at pendings (which reflect list prices), solds in the last month and solds in the last 3 months.

Most regular sales are not only unpressured, but there are pre-sale inspections and often work done to put the home into good shape for the sale. So buyers know that they are getting a solid house with a regular sale.  They know that they will get disclosures completed by the sellers.

The numbers above display a wide range of prices per square foot, but in all cases, the distressed properties are selling for less than regular homes.  In some cases the difference in the average price per SF of the solds is double digits.  Among the pending sales, the list price is 10 – 18% less than amoung short sales or bank owned homes.

The widest gap for the average sales price is about 20%, but if we looked at individual sales we’d find some lower and some higher than that. The worst ones will be abused houses, and the best ones will appear almost like a normal sale, but perhaps a bit dirty.  One of the problems with the “auto comp” sites is that they don’t factor in these conditions, which have such a giant impact on a property’s value.

What is a home really worth? Usually it’s what an informed buyer will pay for it.  In Santa Teresa, as in other parts of San Jose, informed buyers are scooping up bank owned homes and short sales, but only if they’re getting a sizeable discount.  Aggressively priced, well staged and marketing “regular sales” are getting top dollar here and throughout Silicon Valley.

The Almaden Valley real estate market is not greatly changed now from a month ago.

List prices of homes, both condominiums and single family houses, continues to decline in Almaden Valley:

The amount of inventory continues to fall. Homeowners tell me, “I don’t want to sell my house at the bottom of the market”. If this continues, it will help give some balance to the market and keep prices from losing value as much in Almaden Valley.

The days on the market, though, are rising very dramatically in Almaden Valley.

Overall, the market is tougher for condos and townhouses than for single family homes. This has been the case for most of the valley for over a year.

(Above 30 is a seller’s market, below 30 is a buyer’s market.)  As you can see from the steeply dropping black line above, the condo market has gone from bad to catastrophic.  My educated guess is that potential buyers who could have purchased a luxury condo in Almaden have decided to buy a single family home in a less expensive area instead, since the costs are now very similar.

The Campbell real estate market is levelling out and even improving in many regards but it does remain a buyers market there now. In this look at the real estate market in the city of Campbell, we’ll use tools and data provided by two subscription services I have, Altos Research and The Real Estate Report, and also I have crunched some numbers from our MLS myself. We will review both the situation for buyers and sellers of houses as well as condos and townhomes.

How is the Campbell housing market? Data from Altos Research.

Altos Research analyses the Campbell real estate market as a whole using list prices (not sold prices – I will use sold prices further on in this post). To get an overview of how the market’s doing, Altos created the “median market action index”. This is an overview of how Altos perceives that the real estate market is doing, factoring in prices, days on market, etc. Below is the median market action index for Campbell (the 95008 zip code).

Altos states that “A value above 30 indicates demand is relatively robust, we call that a Seller’s Market. Below 30 is a Buyer’s Market.” So we can understand that the condo market seems to be improving now and fthe single family home market has been bouncing up and down within a small range since July or so. (Tthe chart below should report whatever is most current, thanks to my having used a little html magic.)

Inventory in Campbell had been rising, but recently is leveling off:

List prices, too, were falling among houses and condos in Campbell, but they have also leveled off now:

For most of the year, the real estate trends have not been too extreme for house sales in this city. For sellers of condos and townhomes, though, it’s been rougher. This is true countywide – condo sales are more sluggish generally.

Next, a view of the Campbell market using sold data (rather than list prices).

Let’s look at the months of inventory for Campbell real estate, also known as the “absorption rate”. The single family homes are showing shrinking months of inventory and are now at under 6 months, which the National Association of Realtors calls a sellers market. (Sellers here would disagree about the market conditions, no doubt.) The condominium and townhouse situation has been a little more challenging for much of this year, but now appears to be inching close to the six-month mark. (Chart below created by me, info from our MLS provider, MLSListings.com, numbers crunched by me.)

Viewed this way, the real estate market for single family homes in Campbell doesn’t look so bad at all since about May of this year. The condo market has a lot of room for improviement.

Sales are up (both month to month and year over year), inventory is down (month over month), and while prices are down, they are not nearly as bad as many parts of Silicon Valley or California as a whole.

Data and Real Estate Trends for Houses Sold in Campbell in September

The numbers below come from my subscription to The Real Estate Report and reflect data for houses in Campbell, CA, that closed escrow in September 2008.

Prices are down about 15% from a year ago, which can’t make sellers happy but it’s about half as bad as San Jose as a whole and far better than most of California. The number of sales is identical to August and far better than a year ago.

Realty Statistics & Trends for Campbell Condos and Townhomes in September

The condominium and townhome market in Campbell, which has taken more of a beating, is showing very noticeable signs of improvement in pricing (average and median prices are up from last month and the median is up slightly from last year), the number of sales in inching up and inventory is down. Days on the market are down from last month but still up from last year. The list price to sales price ratio, though, is better then last month but not as good as last year. So it’s a bit of a mixed bag, but with some hints of improvement.

Overall, things are not worsening in Campbell and in fact are improving in many key areas. Are we near the bottom? Probably so. We won’t know until the market is really recovering, though – or at least levelled off for awhile.

Sellers, it is important for your home to be in top condition and well marketed if you want to sell. Buyers, homes are not going at rock bottom prices, so write realistic offers when you find that right property.

Every neighborhood has its own micro-climate that may or may not be like the city of Campbell as a whole. Old Victorians in downtown Campbell are not the same as townhomes on Sunnyoaks overlooking the percolation ponds or the large homes near Dry Creek Road. All are unique markets. If you’d like information on your home buying or selling in Campbell, please contact me.

Ths San Jose real estate market conditions vary wildly from one part of this sprawling city to the next. The high-end neighborhoods of Silver Creek, Almaden Valley, as well as parts of the Rosegarden and some hilly locations with views are all very different real estate markets then downtown San Jose, the Santa Teresa area, Burbank, or east San Jose. Even within each district, there are many smaller markets. Today we’ll have a look at the Cambrian Park real estate market.

How’s the real estate market in Cambrian Park?

There are some plusses for Cambrian Park, being up against some well-to-do areas (Los Gatos and Almaden Valley). The area is a middle-class to upper-middle class area and homes are generally well kept and schools range from good to great. All of these help keep values fairly strong in Cambrian.

Even so, prices are down and sales are down, just like the rest of Silicon Valley. However, it’s not as bad here as in many parts of Santa Clara County.

Houses in Cambrian Park have mostly enjoyed a good absorption rate of under 6 months for most of this year. It’s been a little rougher on the Cambrian condo market though. As with the rest of Silicon Valley condos, they just are not selling as well as houses, most likely because single family homes have come down so much in price that they are more affordable.

Overall, it is currently very close to a “balanced market” in Cambrian Park. That means it’s a reasonable time for both buyers and sellers right now.

Next let’s have a look at the data, statistics and trends for the housing market in Cambrian Park. How are realty values holding up?

Cambrian Park Houses – trends, data and statistics

Prices are down in the Cambrian district about 18% year over year. This is bad, but for all of the city of San Jose, that number is a bit over 32%! It’s easily a $100,000 savings for buyers getting into the market now and is making Cambrian Park homes far more affordable then in recent history. Interestingly, the days on market are better than a month ago and inventory is better than both last month and last year. Are we near the bottom? That could be the case.

Now let’s have a look at the same information for the Cambrian condo and townhouse market.

Cambrian Park Condominiums and Townhomes – trends, data and statistics

Condo prices are down, but sales are up, in Cambrian Park. Days on market are a hair better than last month but still significantly worse than last yaer. Inventory, though, is down 14% from a year ago. So again we have a lot of mixed signals on how this market is faring, except for pricing, which is decidedly down. It seems to have farther to go before it will bottom out. Looking back at the absorption rate graph for Cambrian Park Condos, you’ll see that lately, things have improved quite a bit for condominium sellers here.

Next – buying and selling in San Jose’s Cambrian Park District – what to do, what not to do, now!

General Comments About Buying and Selling Cambrian Park Homes in Today’s Market

Sellers: Cambrian Park remains a desireable place to live, but buyers are nervous about getting into a house generally. Sellers, part of what will make your home more saleable is giving the buyer peace of mind that your home is not just attractive, but sound – in good shape. Buyers do not want to move in and remodel (unless the home is beyond rock bottom pricing). They don’t want to worry that they’ll soon have to replace the pipes, the roof, or do other major repairs. So in addition to making your home spotless and aggressively priced, make sure that your home will pass inspections with flying colors. To make sure, you might consider not only having pre-sale inspections done, but doing any repairs before the home is on the market.

Remember, it is close to a balanced market in Cambrian Park right now. Sellers aren’t giving away homes, and buyers aren’t stealing them (with exceptions in rare cases).

Biggest Cambrian Seller Mistakes in Today’s Market:

“just trying” a high price
marketing the home with old, worn, unattractive carpet, thinking “the buyer will change this anyway”
not putting the home into show-ready condition, believing that the buyer can envision how it WILL look
hiring an agent hastily & signing contracts without understanding them

Buyers: If you have good credit and a good downpayment, you can still get a loan. But don’t wait until you find the right house to choose your lender and loan package. The good homes still go fairly fast, and sellers do expect to see a solid pre-approval letter accompanying any offers.

When looking to buy in Cambrian Park, realize that there are a few things that make this area unique. First, there is not just one school district. Know and understand the situation with the schools in Cambrian because it can impact your resale value. Second, proximity to the hills matters and can also impact values. Part of Cambrian actually has views (near Vista Loop) and feels like Almaden Valley or Los Gatos, but with a lower price tag. The downside? This is an expensive pocket of Cambrian and it can be tougher to sell at times because many agents don’t know it exists. And many consumers won’t want to be at the high end of value for the zip code.

Biggest Cambrian Buyer Mistakes in Today’s Market:

not getting preapproved before shopping for a home
not reading and understanding pre sale inspections and disclosures prior to making an offer
not doing “due dilligence” in checking out issues that pop up as red flags – things like non-permitted work, neighborhood issues, unclear disclosures
hiring an agent hastily and signing contracts without understanding them (same as seller mistake)

What is the Long-Term Prognosis for Cambrian Park Real Estate?

No one has a crystal ball, but there is a direct correlation between the number of short sales and foreclosures in a neighborhood and what will happen to pricing. The wealthiest areas in Silicon Valley tend to have the least number of distressed homes and their values are holding up better than the most entry level parts of San Jose or Santa Clara County. Cambrian is mid to upper range in pricing. It does have some bank owned homes, short sales and foreclosures, but it’s not as bad as some areas.

Right now, 68 houses and condos in Cambrian are identified as short sales or bank owned homes. This is out of 233 properties (houses and condos) currently available. It’s stronger in Almaden, where the ratio is 20 out of 131. In Blossom Valley it is worse: 261 out of 445. In Saratoga, a mere 3 out 155 homes on the market are short sales or bank owned. Morgan Hill and Gilroy have a high proportion of distressed properties too: 323 out of 739.

Relatively speaking, Cambrian is not faring too badly – it is close to balanced right now, and that’s a good thing for consumers.

It’s always about location, so even within Cambrian, you can protect your investment by buying in the best location you can. That means don’t purchase on a busy road. No high voltage power lines. No backing up to freeways or anything undesirable. Avoid flood plains and other natural hazards too. Do buy where schools are good, where neighbors all keep up their homes.

My husband and I lived in Cambrian Park with our two kids for ten years and I have been selling in Cambrian on a very regular basis over my 15 year career. If you are interested finding a Cambrian Park Realtor for buying or selling a home in Cambrian Park or anywhere nearby, please give me a call and we can talk about your specific situation during a confidential, no-obligation, no-cost and no-pressure meeting.

Normally I view real estate on a local, or even hyper-local, level. But I thought it might also be good to view the big picture and see San Jose as a whole – with nearly a million residents, it would provide quite a snapshot of how Silicon Valley real estate is doing.

Below, please find a graph reflecting the single family home and condo/townhouse market in San Jose as displayed by the absorption rate:

I find this rather remarkably positive – look at the consistent lowering of the months of inventory for both houses in San Jose as well as townhouses and condos in San Jose. It is a very strong, consistent trend city wide.

Why is it not making the papers?

That National Association of Realtors says that more than 6 months of inventory is a buyers market and less is a sellers market. So clearly, this IS a buyers market. But at this rate, will it continue to be one?

Let’s look at the data (care of the Real Estate Report, to which I subscribe). First, find the information for the single family home market in San Jose:

The number of sales is up, but prices continue to slide. Perhaps that’s why the absorption rate isn’t making the headlines.

Next, let’s check out the condominium and townhouse market in San Jose:

And again, prices are still falling – about a third, again, over last year. So it’s not yet time to break out the bubbly.

The improved months of inventory seems to be a harbinger of improvement, though. Are we near the bottom? Increased sales indicate that we just might be there.

Interested in buying or selling a home in San Jose, or elsewhere in Silicon Valley? Call or email me. I’m happy to do a free, no-obligation, initial consultation with you to discuss your wants, needs, and dreams.