San Jose’s Cambrian, or Cambrian Park, area is a very hot seller’s market.  Multiple offers are not uncommon, especially in the Union School District, where schools are trending upward.  My Cambrian Park Real Estate Report has just been published with the updated numbers from the closed sales in April. Please click on the link to see much more information there.

Prices are up nicely year over year! Inventory is crazy low – just 35 homes for sale in April compared to 57 in March and 84 in April 2011. Days on market is far lower too. All around, it is a deepening seller’s market.

Even stronger is the Cambrian condo market, which is skyrocketing!!!  Please see the Cambrian Condominium & Townhouse Real Estate Report for all of the numbers, but I’ll include a quick summary below.

Here again, notice the ratio of active to pending homes, the sale vs list price (over 100%), and most of all, the tremendous rise in both the average and median sales price.  Few homes closed escrow in February, so it is possible that these numbers are a little exaggerated.  We will know more in a month – if it’s a trend or if this is a fluke.

Now let’s work with Altos Research’s graphs and get a feel for the Cambrian realty market in “real time”.  These use list prices, whereas my REReport uses sold data.

First, the statistics by quartile for houses in San Jose 95118:

Next, the stats and trends by price quartile for houses in San Jose 95124:

Median list price of homes for sale in 95124 and 95118 (all quartiles combined):

Very interesting that the 95124 pricing appears to be swinging upward while the 95118 pricing continues to go down.  I believe that this is mainly because the schools in 95124 have been trending upward strongly with the API scores.  Prices are also at a higher level, and those are less impacted by short sales and REOs countywide.  So it may be the result of multiple factors.  (95124 is about 2/3 of the Cambrian real estate market.)

Inventory in Cambrian area of San Jose 95124, 95118:

Surprising, isn’t it, to see how differently these two San Jose zip codes are behaving from each other?

Average days on Market in San Jose’s Cambrian area

And again, really different trends on these neighboring zips, both in Cambrian!

Another anecdotal story to share: Recently I closed the sale on my listing at 5114 Nerissa Way in Cambrian with Union Schools and Alta Vista in particular. We were listed at $579,000 and received 4 offers and sold at $585,000. Interestingly, we received 2 nearly identical “best” offers, both at $585,000. One was completely As Is and the other was almost As Is (they wanted a fumigation and pest clearance provided).  That is usually a pretty good affirmation of market value, and the property did appraise at the sales price.  The other two offers we got were below list price.  One was all cash and it was extremely low.  Buyers who are purchasing without financing sometimes misunderstand the type of discount that their all-cash status will get for them, so sometimes the worst offers are all cash and that was the case this time.

Want more info on your neighborhood, your house, or your target home to buy? Please call me!

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 35. See more 95124 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $699,000 : 2757 Theresa Ln, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,563 sq ft

   Lot size: 8,580 sqft
   
2. $699,000 : 1898 Kay Dr, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,331 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,062 sqft
   
3. $1,299,999 : 14904 Leigh Av, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 3,340 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,125 sqft
   
4. $682,950 : 3591 Gavota Av, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,600 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,500 sqft
   
5. $1,180,000 : 1777 Kirkmont Dr, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,306 sq ft

   Lot size: 8,249 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 23. See more 95118 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $670,000 : 4241 Ranwick Ct, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 2,199 sq ft

   Lot size: 5,000 sqft
   
2. $785,000 : 3339 Beacon Ln, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,952 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,784 sqft
   
3. $998,000 : 5715 Mireille Dr, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,566 sqft
   
4. $649,000 : 1373 Adobe Ct, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,966 sq ft

   Lot size: 8,800 sqft
   
5. $499,500 : 5576 Dwight Av, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,401 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,000 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Browse lists of Cambrian & Cambrian Park homes for sale:
Houses for sale in the 95118 part of Cambrian
Cambrian Park Houses for Sale in 95124

Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, CNHS, ACRE
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: “Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley”
408 204-7673 (Cell)
emailto: Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
Blog: www.LiveInLosGatos.com & www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com

How is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 4000 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility.  Here are the quick statistics for the closed sales in the last 4-7 weeks to give a sense of how things are going. Sales data for April comes from my Monte Sereno Real Estate Report  and data for the last 30 days comes from me via the MLS (I crunched them this morning).

Median sales price of houses sold in Monte Sereno in April was $1,415,000.  For the last 30 days, it was $2,169,857.

Average Days on Market of houses sold in April was 97.  But for the last 30 days, it’s 78.

The sales price to list price ratio in April was 95%.  The last 30 days it’s up to 97%.

The market is better all around for home sales in Monte Sereno than it was just a couple of months ago. Next, let’s look at the live charts from Altos to see how active listings reflect the market as seen from viewing the solds.

Live Altos Charts for the Monte Sereno Real Estate Market

The median list price of all homes listed on the MLS in Monte Sereno and in San Jose – an interesting comparison!  San Jose has far fewer dips and jumps than Monte Sereno….Good improvement showing recently, though.

Pricing in Monte Sereno, California, by price quartile – the high end took a nose dive on its list pricing for a few months, but now is in recovery too!

Average days on market in Monte Sereno, CA, by price point Interesting that the most expensive homes are not the hardest to sell:

Inventory for all Monte Sereno listings over the last few years (back to 2005) – quite a jump in homes on the market in 2010 compared to normal for this small city:

About Monte Sereno, CA

Monte Sereno is a lscenic, upscale residential community of about 4000 people. It’s located adjacent to the town of Los Gatos and the city of Saratoga, California. There are no businesses in Monte Sereno – just Daves Avenue School, homes, the post office, and the city office building along Highway 9.  It is semi-rural. Some folks mistakenly think that whatever is happening in Los Gatos with the housing market is also reflective of the Monte Sereno real estate market. They are sometimes quite different, particularly as prices are higher in Monte Sereno and about 1/3 of Los Gatos is served by the Campbell or Union School Districts (while only a tiny sliver of MS is in those districts). A couple of years ago, I listed and sold a lovely home on in this city.  You can check out the information on my popehandy.com website (link above).

More info on this city: Official Monte Sereno city website Wikipedia article on Monte Sereno

Monte Sereno Real Estate

With very few exceptions, Monte Sereno consists of houses and estates or luxury homes (there are a few townhouses). Most lots are larger, usually at least a quarter acre lot.  One neighborhood enjoys a shared stable and horseback riding trails (those homes are on about 1/2 acre lots). As of this writing, properties currently available (listed on our MLS) range from about $1,300,000 to more than $5,000,000.  This can vary tremendously.  A move-in ready house will not likely be found in Monte Sereno for less than one million dollars.  (Last year a fixer on a busy road did sell for $750,000, though.) It is not uncommon to spend upwards of $1.5 million in home buying there.

Find Homes for Sale in Monte Sereno, California

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 9. See more city of Monte Sereno real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $3,999,999 : 18090 Daves Av, Monte Sereno
   
   6 beds, 6 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 7,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 43,560 sqft
   
2. $2,295,000 : 15630 Michael Ln, Monte Sereno
   
   5 beds, 4 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 3,924 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,583 sqft
   
3. $1,599,950 : 16172 Rose Av, Monte Sereno
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 2,212 sq ft

   Lot size: 17,327 sqft
   
4. $1,799,950 : 16215 Rose Av, Monte Sereno
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 3,508 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,147 sqft
   
5. $4,500,000 : 16036 Greenwood Rd, Monte Sereno
   
   7 beds, 7 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 7,336 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.17 ac
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?

Today we’ll look at the monthly sales numbers for Saratoga, CA 95070 and also view live charts reflecting homes listed for sale on the MLS. Both houses and condos/townhomes will be considered as will varying price quartiles via the live charts.

Monthly Real Estate Update for Saratoga – prices of houses rising:

As with much of the “west valley”, the Saratoga, CA real estate market is a seller’s market, but it does not appear quite so overheated as neighboring – and far more affordable – Cupertino right now. Unlike many other areas, though, inventory is a little looser and is up month over month (which is seasonally expected) and year over year (not a seasonal issue, of course). 

Here are the real estate sales statistics for closed sales in March 2012 among houses in the 95070 zip code (click on link to read the full Saratoga Real Estate Report for houses):

And February

The median sales price, which is the number indicating that half of the homes sold for more and half less than this number, has risen almost 8% from a year ago.  This implies that more expensive homes are selling – and possibly that home values are rising too. The average is also up about the same amount year over year.

Next, please find the basic statistics for closed sales in February 2012 among townhouses & condominiums in the 95070 zip code (see the Saratoga Real Estate Report for condos & townhomes):

And February

To really understand the condo and townhouse market it’s better to see actual sales and compare them quarter by quarter, using similar units.  If you are interested in buying or selling a condo or townhouse in Saratoga, don’t go it alone or rely on online stats – give me a call and we will crunch the numbers specifically for your home and pinpoint the pricing.

Median List Prices of Saratoga Homes for Sale

First, a graph displaying the overview of the median list prices for condominiums and single family homes in Saratoga – all price quartiles combined:

In general, the seller’s market is showing itself for houses in the fact that list prices are rising.  Not so with condo and townhouse pricing. That’s a much cooler market.

Next, the median list prices for single family homes with a breakdown by price quartile. (Please note that the info would be even more precise if broken down by school district, but this particular program doesn’t yet filter by schools.)

In most price points, the list prices are now rising slightly, but most of all in entry level homes. In the last few months we’ve seen the high end home sales start to pick up in Saratoga, with a good run up in late 2010 before sliding earlier.  Starting to improve now, though.

And now, list price of condos by price quartiles.

Interestingly, the condo market is not enjoying at all the decent seller’s market seen among houses in this city.  Every price point appears to be suffering, but the high end most of all.

Inventory of both houses & condos in Saratoga

It’s seasonally typical to have more inventory in summer than other times of the year. Going back a few more years (see below), please note where the peaks are found – always sometime in summer. (Single family homes only.)

It’s less clear, but still visible, with condominiums and townhouses in Saratoga:

Average Days on Market for Saratoga Homes for Sale

Houses by quartile is not much different – DOM was rising across all price points and has been since August until spring, when the bottom and two quartiles (blue and green) reversed the trend. These are the “hotter”or improving segments of the market right now.

It is strangely disjointed in the Saratoga Condo market, though. I can’t explain why this had been so “all over the board” based on just this data. But since August, all four groups appear to be following the same general trend.

My suspicion is that the homes with the better schools are faring the best, but that’s just a hunch based on how well homes usually sell – it’s not provable with this info at hand.

If you’re interested in buying or selling a Saratoga home, please contact me. I’ll be happy to meet with you for a no obligation initial consultation.

Saratoga Real Estate Listings – Saratoga Homes for Sale – Condos, Townhouses & Houses for Sale in Saratoga

If you’d like to browse Saratoga homes for sale, I invite you to have a look here! Below please find all properties currently listed as available on our local MLS.  Please be advised that there are a number of different property types and school districts listed here.  For more precise information on houses, condos or town houses on the market, please contact me via email or complete a form at SiliconValleyHomeHunt.com or on my popehandy.com website.  Either way it will come to me and I will personally set up your search for a Saratoga property. (If you are moving to the South Bay area from far away, please also see my Silicon Valley relocation website for helpful tips.)

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 90. See more city of Saratoga real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $2,498,000 : 18599 Avon Ln, Saratoga
   
   5 beds, 4 full baths

   Home size: 3,992 sq ft

   Lot size: 42,253 sqft
   
2. $1,198,000 : 20376 Knollwood Dr, Saratoga
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,803 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,680 sqft
   
3. $1,550,000 : 13663 Howen Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,128 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,370 sqft
   
4. $1,898,000 : 19171 Allendale Av, Saratoga
   
   5 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 3,306 sq ft

   Lot size: 23,220 sqft
   
5. $3,895,000 : 19905 Sunset Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 2 part baths

   Home size: 4,800 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.17 ac
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Interested in buying or selling a home in Saratoga?  I grew up there (and in Santa Clara), graduated from Saratoga High before heading off to college, and have been selling homes in Saratoga and nearby parts of Santa Clara County & Silicon Valley since 1993.  I understand the impact of Saratoga’s school districts on home buying decisions, the importance of various locations to market value, and resale concerns that can improve or detract from your return on investment.

Read more about my background on the Valley of Hearts Delight website (sister site to this blog) and learn why my past clients and other readers of the San Jose Mercury News named me “best real estate agent in Silicon Valley” in 2011. There you’ll also see my accomplishments/honors/awards, info on sales experience, and more. 

Or just take a moment to phone me at 408 204-7673, or email me at mary (at) popehandy (dot) com.  If you prefer, you can simply fill out a form online instead.

Buyers who are getting slammed out of the Silicon Valley real estate market due to low inventory and multiple offers are extremely frustrated. In many cases, they write offer after offer, and each time not only are their bids rejected, but they never even get a counter offer.

You should not depend on getting a 2nd chance, of course.  Just because you write a contract on a San Jose area home does not mean that the seller needs to give you a counter offer.  Some agents and sellers don’t respond at all – not nice, but if you get dozens of offers, sometimes that does happen.  Sometimes they just take the best offer and run. Othertimes they only counter the best offer and forget the rest.

The question arises all the time: why isn’t my 20% down offer just as good as the 50% down or the All Cash offer? Isn’t 20% down good enough?

Cash is better because there’s less risk

Twenty percent down is “good enough” if there are no other offers. If it’s multiple offers, though, it’s probably not sufficient for most sellers provided that the all cash offers are written with realistic pricing. Right now, 25% of all sales in Santa Clara County are all cash, and sellers would far rather deal with an offer that includes no finance or appraisal contingencies.  For sellers, the fewer contingencies the better and no contingencies is ideal.  Particularly now, when we are seeing a very sudden and dramatic upswing in pricing, appraisal contingencies can kill an offer’s chances of success. With all cash, there is no appraisal at all – it’s a slam dunk on that front.

What happens if the property doesn’t appraise?

With the 20% down (or FHA or other loan product) situation, if the property does not appraise to the sales price, either the buyer will have to put in more cash, the seller will have to reduce the price, or the house/condo/townhouse will end up going back on the market.  That appraisal is a great “safety net” for buyers but for sellers it’s an albatross!

Don’t lose heart, many cash buyers are unrealistically low in their bids

What I’m finding is that with multiple offers and cash buyers, some of those with money in hand are overly confident on what that no-loan status will bring them.  Recently I got 20 offers on a Santa Clara condo listing, 8 of them cash, but of those, only 2 or 3 were really ever contenders.  The rest of the buyers who were flush with money grossly under bid the home.  The cash is probably worth a 2-3% discount – but some cash buyers were off by much more than that – a giant gap of more than 15% from the lowest cash offer to the highest financed offer.

In most cases, the best cash offer will get a counter that raises it closer to the financed offer – but perhaps not all the way to that amount.  But the unrealistically low cash offers will get completely passed over.

As a buyer with a loan, what can you do?  Here are a few ideas:

• Try to avoid multiple offer situations (that may mean bidding on properties which are overpriced, distressed, need work etc.)
• Ask your agent to assist you in finding off-market properties (this will probably involve your signing a buyer broker agreement, since the MLS is the way in which agents are promised compensation for their work)
• Analyze which parts of the valley appear to be over heated – are there other areas which would suit you as well which are not getting so much attention? you may find a much better deal, and better odds, there.
• Find ways to make your offer less risky to the seller.  Some buyers will write non-contingent offers (no loan or property)

It’s hard to be a buyer right now, especially a first time home buyer.  There are often lots of offers written before one gets accepted.  If you can bring in a larger cash downpayment, it will improve your odds tremendously.  Cash remains king!

Today we’ll have a look at the most recent closed residential realty sales numbers and then also view “live charts” which are updated weekly for Los Gatos real estate.  This segment of Silicon Valley real estate can be viewed from many angles: zip code, school district, sale type, view or no view, acreage, luxury home or basic home type…. This post will serve as a brief overview only. For information on YOUR Los Gatos subdivision or neighborhood, please contact me!

February 2012 sales numbers for Los Gatos real estate are in via my Real Estate Report.  Have a look:

(1) Houses and Duet Homes

Prices are going way, way up!  And yet the market is cooler – more homes are on the market, the list price to sales price ratio shrank a little.  The rest of the west valley areas are seeing multiple offers, overbids and rising prices – and we are hearing of them here, also.  That may not be reflected in the stats for another 30 days or so.

(2) Condos and Townhouses

More skyrocketing prices!  The LG condo market has been very challenged – but now there seems to be a great turnaround. Have a look at the chart below!

Next we’ll have a quick look at the town by zip code and will use Altos Research charts and graphs (using list prices, not sold ones) to get a pulse on the market.  Disclaimers aside, here’s the broad overview by zip code – hope you find this helpful!  I will be using “live charts” here so they will always be current!

95030 stats:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in LOS GATOS, CA95030 as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$1,963,038	Average List Price:	$2,754,730
Total Inventory:	45	Price per Square Foot:	$734
Average Home Size:	2,812	Median Lot Size:	33,335
Average # Beds:	3.74	Average # Baths:	3.29
Homes Absorbed:	3	Newly Listed:	3
Days on Market:	205	Average Age:	50

Continue via link for more information on Los Gatos real estate trends and statistics.

95032 residential real estate statistics:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in LOS GATOS, CA95032 as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$1,335,885	Average List Price:	$1,892,544
Total Inventory:	66	Price per Square Foot:	$618
Average Home Size:	2,180	Median Lot Size:	10,517
Average # Beds:	3.83	Average # Baths:	3.12
Homes Absorbed:	7	Newly Listed:	7
Days on Market:	109	Average Age:	47

And a look at Los Gatos “in town” as a whole:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in LOS GATOS, CA as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$1,301,496	Average List Price:	$1,828,065
Total Inventory:	184	Price per Square Foot:	$554
Average Home Size:	2,405	Median Lot Size:	26,674
Average # Beds:	3.67	Average # Baths:	3.01
Homes Absorbed:	13	Newly Listed:	15
Days on Market:	149	Average Age:	45

 

95033 (Los Gatos Mountains) real estate info:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in LOS GATOS, CA95033 as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$803,585	Average List Price:	$1,207,157
Total Inventory:	73	Price per Square Foot:	$364
Average Home Size:	2,344	Median Lot Size:	110,877
Average # Beds:	3.49	Average # Baths:	2.75
Homes Absorbed:	4	Newly Listed:	5
Days on Market:	153	Average Age:	39

 

Monte Sereno shares many services with LG so I will share these stats also:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in MONTE SERENO, CA95030 as of May 18, 2012
Median List Price:	$2,447,077	Average List Price:	$2,648,285
Total Inventory:	18	Price per Square Foot:	$688
Average Home Size:	3,429	Median Lot Size:	37,139
Average # Beds:	4.16	Average # Baths:	3.64
Homes Absorbed:	2	Newly Listed:	2
Days on Market:	171	Average Age:	40

Los Gatos is a very complex real estate market because there are so many variables, including:

• proximity to downtown (“walk to town” always a huge plus)
• school district (“Los Gatos Schools” usually strongly preferred)
• historic nature of homes & neighborhoods
• slope and usability of the land
• views
• neighborhood amenities (cabana, nearby park, walkability)
• access to popular venues and locations (parks, shopping, schools)
• negative features such as busy roads, high voltage lines, being too close to freeways/trains, natural hazards such as earthquake faults etc.
• type of sale (distressed or regular sale)

Often homes in Los Gatos will have some positive and some negative features, and the same goes for the location.

Should you market your home for sale through the holidays?  It’s now mid November, and if your property has been listed for sale but not gotten an acceptable purchase offer, you may be thinking of taking your house or condo off the market until sometime in the new year. Is that a good idea?  Below, please find some considerations for you as you decide what to do. We’ll

Pricing: will the home sell for more now, or in the new year or spring?

No one can tell you whether prices will be better or worse in the first quarter of 2012 than they are now.  I just returned from the annual conference for the National Association of Realtors (of which I am a member), and quite honestly, I got conflicting information.  Some reports indicate that prices will be lower in the spring, others that they will be higher – or interest rates may be higher, which puts pressure on pricing since affordability is strained when that happens.   Pricing is local, though – so no matter what’s happening nationwide, it could be different in Silicon Valley, in Almaden, Cambrian, or Los Gatos, or in your subdivision or school area.  But bottom line: we really don’t know what pricing will do, we only know the probable buyer’s value – a range of likely sales prices – right now.

Being disturbed during the holidays

Many home owners really don’t want a lot of traffic coming through the home from Thanksgiving through the New Year due to visiting relatives, events planned such as parties at the home, the presence of gifts and concerns over theft, etc.  They may also be worried about rainy weather and carpets getting soiled.

At the same time, though, during the holidays many of us make our homes warm, bright and inviting, particularly if we decorate for Christmas, Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, etc.  Even the smells can do wonders: gingerbread cookies, Christmas trees, hot mulled wine…. With family and friends coming to visit, we tend to “deck the halls” and make our houses really feel like homes.  For many condos, townhouses and houses, during the holidays these homes really show at their best.

The potential to sell a home in December is actually a lot higher both because of the decor and ambiance, but also because so much of the competition is withdrawn from the market.  The odds shift much more in your favor if you keep your home on the market!

Market the home – but differently!

A great solution is to continue to market the home for sale, but to do it differently:

• remove the for sale sign & outside flyer box
• remove the lock box, showings by appointment only (by agent or seller)
• remove the seller’s phone number from the MLS – all appointments will be by appointment only
• flyer stand, disclosure binder and other marketing materials out of sight
• keep home listed for sale on MLSListings.com but more restricted hours

This sort of marketing will result in fewer showings but showings of more qualified, more motivated buyers.  It will be less intrusive to you and everyone in your household too.

What’s your home buying style?  Impulsive? Cautious? Analytic?  Deep bargain hunter?

A few times in my real estate career, I’ve worked with Silicon Valley home buyers who were so anxious to purchase a home that I was concerned that their impulsivity might be a cause for buyer’s remorse later.  When that happens, I try to slow them down a little – I’ll suggest “let’s look at least a few homes” if it happens that they want to buy the very first home they saw. Part of my fiduciary duty is to look out for my clients’ best interests, and sometimes that means putting the brakes on just a little (or telling them what they don’t want to hear).

More commonly, it’s the other extreme that I see in our very well educated, extremely analytic population: paralysis by analysis or an overabundance of caution. (Sometimes it’s overabundance of bargain hunting.)

The vast majority of successful Silicon Valley home buyers are somewhere in between: they set up their priorities and goals (“I want to buy in the next 4 months at this price with this location or school and this type of property and size of home”). The clearer they are on their goals, wants and needs, the easier it is to help them get it – as long as they have realistic expections. That is key!

Once – only once – I sold a Los Gatos house in which the husband purchased without the wife’s physically seeing it.  This is rare!  They had moved so many times that he understood precisely what mattered to her, and if the house met that list, he was good to go.

The national average for the number of homes seen before buying is about 10, but it is more than that here in my experience.  If buyers know what they can afford and what they want, often they and I can narrow what’s seen online to 10-20 homes we visit in person and from those, one or two should be a best fit.  For highly motivated, determined, realistic and organized buyers, and this can usually happen in 2-3 weeks.  (If you are selling one house and immediately buying another, this is really the only way you can swing it without having to rent in the interim.)

What are the odds of successfully buying a Silicon Valley home this year?

How likely is someone to buy a house or condo?  It varies, of course.  As a Realtor who is not in it for one transaction but instead for a long term relationship, I want to help consumers to make good choices.  It is usually easier to slow down the impulsive home buyer (note: not all real estate licensees will do this, some just want to make a quick sale) and harder to move someone who’s bogged down by unrealistic expectations or exaggerated fears to the middle zone where they are able to write a successful purchase offer on a home.

Most of the time, capable buyers who don’t write the offer after months of looking are either overly cautious (afraid of overpaying, usually) and unrealistic about market values (often wanting something for 10-20% than it’s worth in the current market), although sometimes it’s another issue entirely, such as husband and wife not agreeing on either the priorities or the budget.

If you’ve been looking at homes for more than a couple of months, or have seen more than 20 homes and not found yourself able to write a purchase contract with your Realtor, it’s time to evaluate the process and what the stumbling blocks might be.  Are you hoping to find a perfect house at a perfect price in the perfect location?

Waiting for perfect….

This situation of “waiting for the right house to come on the market” is not so unlike the seller of the overpriced house waiting for “the right buyer to come along”.  If all of the other home buyers have seen and rejected that listing, it’s not very likely that another home buyer will come along and decide it’s just perfect or that the price is right.  We speak of the “probable buyer’s value” and try to determine what the odds are that a buyer will pay what the seller expects. For a sale to happen, the buyer and seller expectations have to line up.  So too for home buyers – if you have seen everything over many months, it is extremely unlikely that any new listings will fill the bill any better.

How your Realtor can help

If you find yourself unsuccessful in home buying and it’s been a few months, and you’ve seen plenty of properties, talk with your Realtor.  It is very difficult to be objective about oneself  and where one might be on the spectrum.  If you’ve hired a good real estate agent or Realtor whom you trust and who is presenting you with homes to see that match your basic list, ask him or her what the issue seems to be and what needs to happen for you to be a successful home buyer.  Please be open to hearing what your realty professional has to say and suggestions being made.

Over the last few years, I’ve helped many San Jose area renters to become home buyers.  Sometimes they did have to write a few contracts before being able to buy (if there were multiple offers it can be very challenging!).  Sometimes they had to change their expectations, order of priorities, location or budget for it to work for them.

If you really want to buy – and not just look – now’s a great time. Interest rates are fantastic. In many areas of Santa Clara County it’s a buyer’s market.  If you can line up your expectations with the market realities of today, you can be a homeowner too.

For further reading:

How To Increase The Odds That Your Purchase Offer Will Be Rejected

Home buying

How’s the Campbell, California, real estate market? There are always micro-markets to follow, narrowing what’s viewed to neighborhoods, school districts, and price point. In general, though, it’s a healthy market for this upwardly trending Silicon Valley city with a quaint downtown, good schools and more affordability than might be expected. For houses, clearly, prices are nudging up!

Each month I have a site specifically producing the Silicon Valley real estate market trends (at least for that part of Silicon Valley which is within Santa Clara County). You can see the report for Campbell houses & duet homes here and the condominium and townhouse report here. Just below, I’ll post the basic numbers/summary, though, for those who want a quick view of the market:

(1) Single Family homes (houses/duet homes) in Campbell:

(2) Condominiums and townhouses in Campbell:

Often on this blog we look at specific, hyper local real estate markets in Santa Clara County (as with Saratoga, Campbell, Los Gatos, or even a larger city such as San Jose – or parts of it such as Almaden or Cambrian – or even subsets of any of those). Today, though, we’ll check in on Santa Clara County as a whole, which is home to 1.8 million people and many diverse markets.

The number of homes being sold in Silicon Valley is trending upward now. Prices, though, while higher than a month ago are down about 5.4% from a year before. Let’s see it visually:

Pricing of houses sold in Santa Clara County

Both median and average sales prices are shown in the graph below (which is from the printable version of my Santa Clara County Real Estate Report; you can also view an online version at popehandy.rereport.com). Note the trends with several “peaks and valleys” over the last five years or so.

To check on particular areas within the county, please visit my RE Report and select the city, town, or area within San Jose that you want to better understand.

Did you buy your house at the peak of the market?

Recently I met with some of my past clients, who purchased their San Jose house close to the height of the market (2005-2007).  In those days it was a hot seller’s market (not unlike many parts of the Silicon Valley real estate landscape today, actually), and buyers routinely purchased their homes “As Is“, meaning no repairs provided by the sellers.  Desperate to get in when prices were appreciating fast, it seemed that most home buyers said “we’ll take care of it after we own it“.

But they forgot.

Actually this didn’t just happen during the peak of the market here in Santa Clara County – there’s always a percentage of consumers who buy As Is to get a better price.  They have good intentions about taking care of the mold, the termites, the roof and whatever else might not be either in good working order or free of infestation.  But once they move in, the “to do list” doesn’t seem to have those items as a high priority, and over time they completely fall through the cracks.

Pull out your old file, find your inspection reports and review them, especially if you are preparing to sell your home

Today I want to encourage you to dig out your old home inspection and pest reports, dust them off, and have a look.  Did you need to address a problem with termites, electrical issues, leaks?  Is there something to take care of with the roof, gutters, dry rot or fungus?  All of those things do not self-correct, but instead grow worse over time. 

If your reports are more than three or five years old, you might consider getting new ones done since in all likelihood there’s more work, possibly in new areas, now. Just make sure you hire a reputable company which won’t gloss over problems, leaving them latent and waiting to cost you more in the end.  Don’t toss your old inspections out – have a look and see if everything that used to be called out is covered.  If you are planning to stay put, is best to correct everything so that your home is kept in good condition for the long haul. If you are planning to sell your home, it’s important to fix it up first if you want to get the most for your sale.  The market is very different from the peak, and having the home improvement work done is more important than ever now.

Are you buying a distressed property (short sale, bank owned, or pre-foreclosure) in Silicon Valley?

If you are purchasing a short sale, pre-foreclosure or bank owned home – let alone one at auction – please be aware that these properties are most often neglected and have more than a normal share of deferred maintenance.

You or your Realtor can look up the sales history for the home.  If it was purchased between 2005 and 2008, there’s a good chance that it was sold As Is and that if any repairs were needed, they weren’t done.

With pre-foreclosures or short sales, sometimes the sellers are well organized and will still have their old reports.  The agent may not be aware that these are available, but they can provide at least some information since pre-sale inspections are usually not provided with distressed sales.

For more reading on this topic:

How often should you get a termite inspection?

Would you recognize signs of subterranean termites if you saw them?

Watch for Dampwood Termites in Silicon Valley!

Do pools enhance property value in Silicon Valley back yards?  Do they make homes easier or more difficult to sell in Santa Clara County? What’s the impact on resale value?  The common wisdom is that it depends on the amount of yard or lot size, the price point and the location of the residence. When a pool takes up the majority (or virtually all) of the back yard, most often it makes the property undesirable to buyers – at least to most home buyers – and that, in turn, causes the sales price to slip a bit. It used to be that pools were almost a given on more expensive residential real estate, particularly if there is a lot of land.  Today I ran the numbers, though, and it appears that things have changed.  Below please find the “months of inventory” for homes with and without pools and note that it is very consistent, in the fields I checked, that it’s now harder to sell a home with a pool than without

.

Pools appear to make it harder to sell a home in Santa Clara County right now.

Truthfully, this came as a bit of a surprise to me since many of the luxury properties in Almaden, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Monte Sereno and nearby areas do include pools, especially if they’re on a half acre lot or more.  In the past, I remember high-end buyers not wanting to purchase a larger, estate home if there wasn’t already a pool in place since it’s such a mess (and noisy, and expensive) to go through the construction of one. Lately, though, my high-end buyers (properties upwards of a million dollars) are fairly adamant that they do not want a swimming pool. Many of them don’t want the upkeep costs or chores and have told me that they would not use it enough to make it worthwhile.

What about luxury home buyers and pools in Silicon Valley?

I wanted to see if it changed when the data was viewed in light of pricing and not just acreage or lot size, so to finish up this study, I looked at regular sales of houses listed at over $2,000,000 in Santa Clara County (the San Jose area) – these are considered luxury homes here.  For houses without pools, the months of inventory was 5.4 (not terrible, still less than the 6 months which NAR calls a balanced market) but for homes with pools, it was up to 6.8 months of inventory. That’s a significant difference and is in line with what we saw when the question was put with the amount of land involved.  Generally speaking, buyers would prefer to not have a pool, even in the higher priced subsets of the market.  (My advice: run the numbers for your own home’s micro market and see. It’s possible that this may not apply in your case.)

This still didn’t sit quite right with me since I’ve known the most expensive homes to all have pools, so I spent some time looking at homes in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga. I was interested to know if homes with pools were still harder to sell and had a lower resale value, as appears to be the case in more normally price houses.

First I looked again at larger lots – half an acre to about an acre and a half – in all three areas combined.  It was inconclusive but basically there were 102 of them for sale now and 12 which have closed in the last month (so 8.5 months of inventory).  Of those on the market, 56 had pools and 46 didn’t. This was too broad given the variety of zip codes and school districts, so I narrowed it to just Saratoga with only Saratoga schools.  For those in this area, just 3 have sold and closed in the last month with no pool (averaging about $1,850,000) but 9 have closed with a swimming pool (averageing about $2,735,000).  The average square footage of a house without a pool was 3482, but the average house size of places with a pool was 4309. It does appear that homes with pools do sell for more, but also that in general, these are larger homes.  Since 3/4 of those sold in this segment of the Saratoga market do have pools, it would be hard to say that buyers are rejecting homes with pools.  Of course, a 4300 SF house in Saratoga with Saratoga Schools is much different than a house in Willow Glen with San Jose schools – just underlines the fact that the real estate market is comprised of many micro markets.  What is true for the county as a whole may not be the case for luxury properties in Los Altos, Saratoga, or Almaden Valley.

Why do pools hurt the odds of selling for most houses in the San Jose area?

Bigger studies would need to be done to thoroughly address the question of why swimming pools appear to hurt saleability for most residential real estate (the very high end excluded).  But I will venture a couple of guesses.  First, there are weather issues.  Last summer was cool and this winter doesn’t seem to want to end. Pools are probably a lot more appealing when there’s significant doses of hot weather.  Second, we are still recovering from a very tough recession, so the new frugality which is currently fashionable and which has become a way of life for so many of us may be impacting the perceived value of in ground pools, too.  This may change as we move more into the recovery and when our unemployment isn’t just over 10%.

Selling a home with a swimming pool

Home owners, it’s important to realize that although you may have enjoyed and treasured your pool, for buyers it may be viewed as a liability – an expense to have it removed or to maintained. To get the best deal for your home, you’ll want to try to mitigate the buyer’s concerns since worried buyers will pay less and confident buyers will pay more for your property. Solar panels make it less expensive to maintain, and therefore more acceptable to consumers worried about power bills.  Families with small children may be concerned about safety issues, so having a great child-proof fencing system may provide them peace of mind.  You could, as a negotiation strategy or selling bonus, throw in one year of pool service from your favorite provider too, since they may feel ill-equipped to take on the maintenance of a pool as soon as they move in.  A home warranty with pool coverage will also provide peace of mind and a sense of a safety net should things go wrong.

Selling a house with a pool? Make sure it's clean!

Pools, like every other element of the house and yard, need to be in pristine, sparkling condition if you want to maximize the sales price of your property.   When home buyers, especially first time home buyers, see missing tiles, obvious rust stains, rampant algae, leaking pool equipment or other problems, they see both work to be done and dollar signs.  This is even more true if there are no pre-sale inspections.  Don’t provide reasons for your home’s buyer to be worried – buying a home at all is worrisome enough!

Should you remove the pool before putting your house on the market?

Filled pool: what not to do

Some home sellers may opt to get rid of the pool before selling. That can be a good idea, especially if the back yard is really small, but it needs to be done correctly. Recently I was house-hunting with some clients in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose and we saw a backyard where the pool was left completely in place, but filled with dirt and planted with grass. I assure you, that was a terrible idea because now buyers see it as twice as much trouble (and cost) to rectify. Home buyers, if you are neutral on buying with or without a pool, you may find it far easier to purchase property that has a pool as it seems that there will be less competition for it. If you want a pool, you are in luck right now!  Market conditions change and three or four years from now, when we are in a more recovered economic status, pools may again be the hot ticket.  This is a great opportunity to buy a house with a pool while there’s less competition! Want to talk about buying or selling a home with a pool?  Call or email me today!

Homes in Saratoga, CA: real estate market trends and statistics for houses as well as condominiums and townhouses.

The real estate market in Saratoga improved a bit last month. But, as always, it really depends on what subset of the market you’re considering. It will be much different between price points, for instance (as well as between school districts, proximity to town, views, acreage, etc.). Today we’ll review the broad trends in Saratoga 95070 to get a general feel for the conditions but this could be very different for the home you own or want to purchase because real estate is always very local.

Let’s start with the months of inventory, or the absorption rate. I ran the numbers from MLSListings.com, our mls provider, this afternoon. The numbers below reflect all houses (or duet homes) in Saratoga, CA 95070. With months of inventory, the lower the figure the “hotter” the market or the more in the seller’s favor it is. Six months is said to be balanced. For Saratoga as a whole, there are 4.17 months of inventory or MOI right now. That’s not bad. It’s a seller’s market but not strongly so. But what if we look at subsets of the market? Let’s try it by price point.

We could drill this data down by any number of factors to see what the hyper local’s market climate would be like. The mix could include sale type (distressed properties, short sales, bank owned homes vs “regular sales”), various school districts, a “walk to town” location, horse properties, homes with views, newer construction, historic homes. etc.

Schools are always a big deal in terms of market drivers. Saratoga has 3 high school districts and 4 elementary school districts, and understanding those boundaries can make buyers a little crazy. Anyway let’s tease this out just a tad by looking at the MOI for Saratoga by high school district to see what we get.

• Homes feeding to the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District (Saratoga High) have 4.71 months of inventory (a bit cool but still in the seller’s favor)
• Houses which belong to the Campbell Union High School District (Prospect High School) have 3.71 months of inventory
• Properties in the attendance area of the Fremont Union High School District (Cupertino school, Lynbrook High School in Saratoga) enjoy 2.5 months of inventory (a pretty good, strong seller’s market)

Why such a big discrepancy, and why are homes in the Prospect High area selling so much better than those in the Saratoga High area? I believe that the answer has to do with the graph above – most of the homes in the Prospect and Lynbrook attendance areas are more affordable than those in the Saratoga High area, and as we know, the more expensive houses for sale in Saratoga are having some trouble selling. Unless we pulled these out by both school district and price point (and perhaps more factors, too), we can’t be sure but I think it’s the most likely cause.

Overall, though, we can see that in Saratoga right now it’s a whole lot easier to sell homes under $2,000,000 than over. Interestingly, it’s slightly easier to sell a home between $1 million and $2 million rather than lower than that. I believe that’s because homes under that price point are not in the highly prized Saratoga (or Cupertino) school area.

Right now, high end or luxury homes in Saratoga are difficult to sell. This will be more true if there are any “issues” (such as being too close to high voltage power lines or a noisy location). This may change. With the recent IPO of LinkedIn, there may be some newly minted millionaires who will not find the commute from Saratoga to be too far. They cannot buy just yet, but in a few months we may see an improvement in the market of these upper tier price levels. Watch this spot!

Luxury or estate home buyers: if you are looking to purchase a home upwards of $2,000,000, you might consider doing it before you are competing with Linked In money. Just a thought.

Next, let’s look at the most current REReport for Saratoga, using the closed sales from April. This month’s closed numbers will be available about 6-10 days into next month.

It has been a mixed bag in the Saratoga real estate market with both the median sales price and average sales price slipping until recently; pending sales were up, though, and closed sales were flat. Overall, it’s still a buyer’s market there. (Click on the link for a full report.)

Median List Prices of Saratoga Homes for Sale

First, a graph displaying the overview of the median list prices for condominiums and single family homes in Saratoga – all price quartiles combined:

In general, the seller’s market is showing itself for houses in the fact that list prices are rising. Not so with condo and townhouse pricing. That’s a much cooler market.

Next, the median list prices for single family homes with a breakdown by price quartile. (Please note that the info would be even more precise if broken down by school district, but this particular program doesn’t yet filter by schools.)

In most price points, the list prices are now rising slightly, but most of all in entry level homes. In the last few months we’ve seen the high end home sales start to pick up in Saratoga, with a good run up in late 2010 before sliding earlier. Starting to improve now, though.

And now, list price of condos by price quartiles.

Interestingly, the condo market is not enjoying at all the decent seller’s market seen among houses in this city. Every price point appears to be suffering, but the high end most of all.

Inventory of both houses & condos in Saratoga

It’s seasonally typical to have more inventory in summer than other times of the year. Going back a few more years (see below), please note where the peaks are found – always sometime in summer. (Single family homes only.)

It’s less clear, but still visible, with condominiums and townhouses in Saratoga:

Average Days on Market for Saratoga Homes for Sale

Houses by quartile is not much different – DOM was rising across all price points and has been since August until spring, when the bottom and two quartiles (blue and green) reversed the trend. These are the “hotter”or improving segments of the market right now.

It is strangely disjointed in the Saratoga Condo market, though. I can’t explain why this had been so “all over the board” based on just this data. But since August, all four groups appear to be following the same general trend.

My suspicion is that the homes with the better schools are faring the best, but that’s just a hunch based on how well homes usually sell – it’s not provable with this info at hand.

If you’re interested in buying or selling a Saratoga home, please contact me. I’ll be happy to meet with you for a no obligation initial consultation.

Saratoga Real Estate Listings – Saratoga Homes for Sale – Condos, Townhouses & Houses for Sale in Saratoga

If you’d like to browse Saratoga homes for sale, I invite you to have a look here! Below please find all properties currently listed as available on our local MLS. Please be advised that there are a number of different property types and school districts listed here. For more precise information on houses, condos or town houses on the market, please contact me via email or complete a form at SiliconValleyHomeHunt.com or on my popehandy.com website. Either way it will come to me and I will personally set up your search for a Saratoga property. (If you are moving to the South Bay area from far away, please also see my Silicon Valley relocation website for helpful tips.)

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 90. See more city of Saratoga real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $2,498,000 : 18599 Avon Ln, Saratoga
   
   5 beds, 4 full baths

   Home size: 3,992 sq ft

   Lot size: 42,253 sqft
   
2. $1,198,000 : 20376 Knollwood Dr, Saratoga
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,803 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,680 sqft
   
3. $1,550,000 : 13663 Howen Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,128 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,370 sqft
   
4. $1,898,000 : 19171 Allendale Av, Saratoga
   
   5 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 3,306 sq ft

   Lot size: 23,220 sqft
   
5. $3,895,000 : 19905 Sunset Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 2 part baths

   Home size: 4,800 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.17 ac
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Yesterday we looked at the types of home sales around Silicon Valley by price point.  Not terribly surprising, most of the short sales and bank owned homes were in the lowest price ranges.  Today we’ll look at this type of information not by pricing tier but instead by geography – in other words, by either town, city or district of San Jose (area).  This post will not cover every area but will be a sampling a few communities, mostly on the west side of the valley (since that’s primarily where I work).

By way of reminder, the small image to the left reflects Santa Clara County’s houses for sale as a whole – all areas and all price points. (You can see the full sized image by clicking on it.) The green area represents “regular home sales” and the brick red and light orange signify distressed  properties listed on the MLS for sale (red is short sales and orange is bank owned or REOs). Next let’s see a few regions within the county to see how things are faring geographically.

1. Almaden Valley area of San Jose – homes listed for sale by type – very few distressed properties on the market!

Almaden is a lovely southwest San Jose suburban community (zip code 95120) that grew up initially with the cinnabar or mercury mining activity.  Today it’s an upscale area of more expensive homes than most of the county, it enjoys really good schools and scenic views of the coastal range as well as the Santa Teresa Foothills.  Housing here is costly but residents love the quality of life. Since the cost of homes for sale here is high, it’s not super surprising, after seeing yesterday’s post, that there are very few distressed homes on the market here. Next we’ll check the other extreme….

2. Alum Rock area of San Jose – this is a less wealthy part of Santa Clara County and generally has been harder hit by the mortgage and housing crisis.

In this east San Jose neighborhood of Alum Rock (near beautiful Alum Rock Park), almost half the homes listed for sale are either short sales or bank owned properties.  That said, Alum Rock has some areas which are much more upscale (and elevated), some with many many acres of land and those pricier properties are not quite so badly hit with the distressed property deluge.

3. Cambrian area of San Jose – a west valley community that often closely reflects Santa Clara County as a whole

The Cambrian or Cambrian Park district of San Jose often has prices, days on market and other trends which are very similar to Santa Clara County so it’s often a good “gauge” of how the area is doing generally.  If you compare this graph to the one at the top of this post, you’ll find them very similar – about 2/3 of listed houses and duet homes for sale are “regular” or non-distressed sales.

5.  Campbell -a little more expensive, great downtown, popular area

Campbell is exceedingly popular as it’s got a charming downtown, enjoys light rail access and is part of the Los Gatos Creek Trail. It’s close to Los Gatos, but more affordable. Here about 70% of the homes listed for sale on our multiple listing service or MLS are regular sales, so a little healthier than most of Silicon Valley.

6. Los Gatos – a more expensive community, fewer distressed houses for sale

In Los Gatos, there are right now just 3 short sales on the market (for houses and duet homes) and NO bank owned homes. As you can see, it’s overwhelmingly “normal sales” and this helps a lot with home values.

A year or so ago, we had a cluster of short sales in one particular east Los Gatos neighborhood and it was really damaging the property values of the “regular sellers’” homes. It’s encouraging to see this correct a bit.

7. Monte Sereno – more expensive still – no distressed houses for sale right now!

Monte Sereno is a tiny city with 4,000 residents. It’s more expensive then neighboring Los Gatos, with whom it shares police, schools, library and more.

With no businesses or commercial buildings, Monte Sereno enjoys a quieter lifestyle.  Most of the activity is either around Daves Avenue School, the post office/city building or the horse trails!

8. Palo Alto -home to Stanford and classy luxury homes

Stately and vibrant Palo Alto is home to Stanford University (and the Lucille Packard Hospital, which is a world class facility).  Schools in this city are top-rated in Silicon Valley.  The city is beautiful and there’s lots to do.  For many reasons, then, Palo Alto is probably the most sought after address in the region, and home prices reflect its desireability. Not surprisingly, then, it’s not likely that home buyers will find many low-cost distressed properties on the market.  When they do appear, they tend to go fast.  As of this writing, there’s just one short sale and no bank owned homes available there.

9. Saratoga – great schools, scenic vista, highly regarded Silicon Valley community

Saratoga is not as costly as Palo Alto, but within Santa Clara County it’s right up there near the top for least affordable.

What I find most interesting here is not the small number of distressed properties on the MLS in Saratoga, but rather that there’s an equal number of short sales as there are REOs (bank owned).  Usually the ratio is more 2 – to – 1.  Maybe it’s a fluke? We’ll have to check and see down the road!

What we see when looking at Silicon Valley houses listed for sale by sale type is that the geographical differences largely mimic the pricing tiers.  The more expensive the area – or the home within it – the less likely you are to find that bargain priced property.

For more info on Silicon Valley Communities, please also see my website’s community information page.

How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a cold “buyer’s market” overall.  But look closer and it is something of a mixed bag.  Prices are better for buyers, but there’s not much from which to pick.

Almaden Valley Inventory of Houses for Sale

Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory.  What’s happening?

First, let’s see what “usually” happens in he 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale.  Here’s a look at the last 6 years, care of Altos Research:

Normally our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later.  This year it looks like we have hit the bottom and inventory is nudging up again, but not as dramatically as we have seen in recent years.

Perhaps the whole cycle is running a little late.  The peak in 2009 was around July 1st, but in 2010 the peak was around October 1st – it does move around a little.

Since we are seeing somewhat softer prices than a year ago, a couple of my clients have told me that they’ve decided to hold off on selling for now.  It is very possible that they are representative of how other sellers are feeling too – so there may be a little restriction on inventory this season while prices are down.

The impact on sales is not hard to predict: more of the available inventory is being bought up.  Often the ratio of pendings to available runs anywhere from about 50% to 70% (so 1 pending for every 2 available = 50%).  Right now, though, the ratio is 81%.  Buyers still have to buy.  (So sellers, the odds are better for selling now as opposed to when there’s more inventory.)

How are the Days on Market in 95120?

Here’s a view of all price points in Almaden over the last 3 years combined:

Next, one year with the four price quartiles separated out. See how much tougher it is to sell a “luxury home” than “entry level” in this part of San Jose now. All but the highest tier are improving now.

What about list prices of Almaden homes for sale?

The median list price is slipping, which is great for buyers – if they can find anything that they want to buy!

And here’s the data by price quartile across all of Almaden for the last year:

Remember, please, that it may vary if you’re in a more or less desirable area, have more or less land, the house is more or less remodeled, etc. – these are general trends!

Looking closer in time, let’s have a peek at the last 30 days:

It’s pretty flat in the lower price points right now.

Median List Price Per Square Feet in San Jose 95120

Anyone buying now has the benefit of getting much more house for the money than a few years ago:

Here’s a look at the last year by price quartile:

Finally, if interested, you can see how this area compares to others nearby – if you like what you see, you can sign up to get updated weekly.

The luxury homes market often behaves very differently than the rest of the real estate market as a whole.  If interest rates jump around, the impact is often far less since the home buyers of estate properties may not be nearly as dependent upon financing.  Many of these fine homes & estates are paid for “all cash”.  (In some cases they do this but later arrange financing, perhaps funding a “charitable remainder” trust rather than a more typical institutional loan.)

How’s the real estate market for high end homes in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and the Los Gatos Mountain communities?  Defining “luxury homes” is a bit tricky because what constitutes luxury can vary from area to area (check out these estate homes for sale in the Buffalo NY area). For now let’s use prices of $2 million or greater as we first look at the Months of Inventory or Absorption Rate – though in fairness, the luxury price point is a little lower in the mountains.  (Six months is considered balanced by the National Association of Realtor, less is a sellers market and more is a buyers market.)

As of this writing (Jan 21, 2010) here are the numbers for homes over $2,000,000:

Los Gatos, 95030 for sale (active) = 20    Sold in the last month = 1  Months of inventory = 20

Los Gatos, 95032 for sale (active) = 14    Sold in the last month = 1  Months of inventory = 14

LG Mtns, 950303 for sale (active) = 2    Sold in the last month =0  Months of inventory = infinite

Monte Sereno   for sale (active) = 7    Sold in the last month = 0  Months of inventory = infinite

So right now, it is a deep buyers market in the luxury home strata in Monte Sereno, Los Gatos and the Los Gatos Mountains.

Next we’ll change gears and use Altos Research and quartiles to evaluate the most expensive listings.  We will look at the top quartile of list prices, the high end listings in Los Gatos (zip codes 95030 and 95032 in town), in the Los Gatos Mountains (unincorporated, 95033) and Monte Sereno (99.9% of which is in 95030 but a tiny sliver has the 95032 zip code).   The charts I’m using are live and will be continuously updated by Altos Research, to which I have a subscription.

List prices of homes for sale in the topmost price quartile in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and the Los Gatos Mountains

The most expensive of these four areas is Monte Sereno.

Notice, for a moment, the “dip” in the last year in each area. For Monte Sereno, it came early, around April. For Los Gatos 95030 (the area closest to downtown), it came a bit later, in around June. For Los Gatos 95032 it was later still, and much milder, with the low point in about September. And the Los Gatos Mountains, which tend to move very slowly in the best of markets, had a gentle downward drop that appears to have hit bottom in November. It as if there had been a rolling wave…. Monte Sereno got hit, and then recovered, the fastest. The lower the prices, the gentler the fall and rise. Interesting!

Also of interest is that the list prices in the mountains and in Monte Sereno are as good as or better than a year ago, but not so in Los Gatos 95030 or Los Gatos 95032.

Average Days on Market for Los Gatos, Monte Sereno & the Los Gatos Mountains among the top tier of pricing in each

Over the course of the last year, it appears that homes were selling faster (or perhaps being yanked off the market faster) such that it was easier to sell last summer than it is today for luxury homes in these parts of Silicon Valley.

Let’s look at the patterns.  For the most part, these four areas all have a “V” type of movement with days on market. Visually, we again see dramatically different level of drop, though, almost exactly like we saw with the list prices. Monte Sereno sees a sharp drop – very low, very fast. Los Gatos 95030 is just behind it in terms of the type of falloff of DOM and then Los Gatos 95032 a little less. In the mountains, though, we don’t see a dramatic change at all. There’s a little dip, but nothing like what we see in Monte Sereno.

Inventory of the most expensive quartile of homes in Los Gatos, the Los Gatos Mountains and Monte Sereno

Again, we find that although these are four different (but adjacent) areas, all follow the same pattern for inventory, which was at a height last summer and is fairly low now. That seems to be somewhat seasonal, though. Let’s see how it looks over more time.

We can note that there are dips in inventory levels each winter. Even so, what we see more recently is a lot more dramatic – or volatile – than what we’ve seen prior to 2010.  Year over year, inventory is up – and that doesn’t help to sell a luxury property.

Luxury house buyers, this is a great opportunity for you to get the best home for the money!

Luxury home sellers, you need to be serious about selling if you want to be effective in this market.  There are lots of ways to get qualified traffic through the door, and just as many to make those same buyers not bother. It’s imperative to leverage everything you’ve got going for your property if you’re serious about selling.

View a Sampling Silicon Valley Luxury & Estate Homes Online Now!

Browse fine homes & estates listed for sale in Los Gatos

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 48. See more city of Los Gatos real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $19,995,000 : 16450 Aztec Ridge Dr, Los Gatos
   
   6 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths

   Home size: 11,257 sq ft

   Lot size: 50 sqft
   
2. $9,500,000 : 16721 Madrone Av, Los Gatos
   
   6 beds, 6 full baths

   Home size: 6,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 21 sqft
   
3. $9,500,000 : 285 Wooded View Dr, Los Gatos
   
   6 beds, 6 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 7,987 sq ft

   Lot size: 6.25 ac
   
4. $8,900,000 : 16350 Matilija Dr, Los Gatos
   
   3 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 7,475 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.26 ac
   
5. $8,495,000 : Shannon Rd, Los Gatos
   
   6 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths

   Home size: 6,138 sq ft

   Lot size: 31.53 ac
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Browse high end properties for sale in Monte Sereno

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 6. See more city of Monte Sereno real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $4,500,000 : 16036 Greenwood Rd, Monte Sereno
   
   7 beds, 7 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 7,336 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.17 ac
   
2. $3,999,999 : 18090 Daves Av, Monte Sereno
   
   6 beds, 6 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 7,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 43,560 sqft
   
3. $3,795,000 : 15449 Banyan Ln, Monte Sereno
   
   5 beds, 4 full, 3 part baths

   Home size: 6,228 sq ft

   Lot size: 36,154 sqft
   
4. $3,588,000 : 16145 Greenwood Rd, Monte Sereno
   
   4 beds, 4 full baths

   Home size: 4,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 33,750 sqft
   
5. $2,295,000 : 15630 Michael Ln, Monte Sereno
   
   5 beds, 4 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 3,924 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,583 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Browse luxury houses for sale in the Los Gatos Mountains

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 5. See more city of Los Gatos Mtns real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $8,995,000 : 18550 Black Rd, Los Gatos Mtns
   
   5 beds, 8 full baths

   Home size: 18,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 11.09 ac
   
2. $2,999,000 : 18807 Bear Creek Rd, Los Gatos Mtns
   
   2 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,440 sq ft

   Lot size: 2.65 ac
   
3. $2,999,000 : 18805 Bear Creek Rd, Los Gatos Mtns
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,440 sq ft

   Lot size: 2.65 ac
   
4. $2,280,000 : 22546 Summit Rd, Los Gatos Mtns
   
   4 beds, 4 full baths

   Home size: 2,571 sq ft

   Lot size: 43,560 sqft
   
5. $2,250,000 : 21901 Bear Creek Wy, Los Gatos Mtns
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 4,700 sq ft

   Lot size: 7 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Browse estates and fine homes for sale in Saratoga, CA

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 47. See more city of Saratoga real estate.
(all data current as of 5/24/2012)

1. $17,500,000 : 22030 Mount Eden Rd, Saratoga
   
   6 beds, 6 full, 2 part baths

   Home size: 13,459 sq ft

   Lot size: 14.00 ac
   
2. $16,750,000 : 21116 Comer Dr, Saratoga
   
   6 beds, 8 full, 3 part baths

   Home size: 12,505 sq ft

   Lot size: 7.88 ac
   
3. $9,988,000 : 13388 Surrey Ln, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 5 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 8,500 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.05 ac
   
4. $6,988,000 : 13815 Pierce Rd, Saratoga
   
   6 beds, 5 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 8,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.87 ac
   
5. $6,950,000 : 19730 Glen Una Dr, Saratoga
   
   5 beds, 4 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 5,461 sq ft

   Lot size: 2.80 ac
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Please call or email me if you’d like assistance with buying or selling high end real estate in the west valley.  I’m happy to meet with you confidentially.