Home buyers (and sellers too) here in Silicon Valley like to “see the comps” when trying to determine fair market value or the probable buyer’s value for real estate.  Usually that translates into seeing what sold & closed escrow recently and for how much.

In a rapidly appreciating market and a strong seller’s market, though, the comps are not so much help as you might hope.  They are yesterday’s news!  What closed escrow last week was negotiated 30 or 35 days prior, in most cases.  By the time a San Jose area home is on record as a newly closed sale, it may already be out of date information. Not only that, but the MLS won’t tell us, at least not in most cases, how many offers there were or details about them - such has how many of them were all cash offers.

I see this mistake a lot in my real estate practice across Santa Clara County.  Clients want to view sales around a property they’re interested in. With our terribly severe inventory shortage, there may not be enough recently closed sales – so we look further out in location, futher back in time.  If prices are going up fast (as they are in Cupertino, Palo Alto and elsewhere), the only way you will be in step with the market is if you also factor in the appreciation that has likely taken place since each comparable property has closed escrow, whether that was 2 weeks ago or 3 months ago.  And that’s hard to guage.

What to do, then?

Your best knowledge will come from or be supplemented by information from pending sales; the most recent ones and closest ones are going to be the best, of course.  This is where your agent may be of great help to you either from the networking he or she does naturally, from direct experience on sales made or lost, or from proactively reaching out to listing agents to see if they can glean some information.

Addionally, you will want to factor in the number of offers a property is getting before deciding the price you will offer.  It is another very common home buyer mistake to look at the price of sold homes nearby, determine what seems fair, and then plough ahead without considering the level of interest that the house or condo is generating.  If there are multiple offers, you can reasonably expect that most of the time (if not all, in today’s market)  the sales price will be above the list price.  It will be unproductive for you to lowball (writing an offer more than 5% or 10% under list price).  Even if your offer is all cash, remember that sellers want the most possible for their property – they are not going to give you a huge discount on pricing.  Some, yes – in my experience usually around 2-3% – but not a huge amount off. They would rather wait a month and get a lot more money!

Factoring in the absorption rate (months, weeks or days of inventory) may be helpful to you also, especially if you cannot get info on the homes which are sale pending. (My Santa Clara County REReport includes this information, btw.)

In summary, don’t just look at the comps – they are a backward and incomplete view of what happened when the sale was negotiated.  Consider what’s under contract or pending now, and perhaps above all, take into account the current competition for the property you want.

Silicon Valley real estate’s market madness is back -in case you weren’t looking, this is what we are seeing in places like Cupertino, Palo Alto, Los Altos, and Saratoga – or anywhere in which there are great schools (especially with a shorter commute) or some other reason why a neighborhood is very highly desirable:

• multiple offers, bidding wars and sky high overbids
• non-contingent offers
• buyers willingly paying costs that the seller normally would cover
• pre-emptive offers

If this all sounds vaguely familiar to you, then you were here in the South Bay or San Francisco Peninsula and involved in real estate in 2000 (and to a lesser extent in 2005).  Whether you’re a Realtor, lender, or consumer trying to sell or buy a house or townhouse/condo in a great area, you knew it was happening.

One of the elements for this madness is the pre-emptive offer.  What is it?

When the real estate market in Santa Clara & San Mateo Counties runs red hot – in the seller’s favor – often the listing agents will direct that there is an offer date or deadline. Most of the time it’s about a week after the property is listed for sale on the MLS.  The reason for the wait time, of course, is to provide enough exposure so that all interested parties have a chance to tour the home, review presale inspections and to write up a purchase contract for it.  Otherwise, you have a foot race and only the swift have a chance. The lack of multiples will limit the sales price, so savvy Silicon Valley home sellers will usually set an offer date if multiples appear to be likely.

A pre-emptive offer is one in which the home buyer doesn’t wait for the offer deadline, but submits a purchase agreement ahead of time. Sometimes it’s even “sight unseen”! Obviously the latter will be considered shaky since the buyer could easily get a bad case of buyer’s remorse.

Smart listing agents will warn their home sellers about the temptation to accept a pre-emptive offer.  That Siren Song can be tempting!  But those would-be home buyers are unlikely to disappear if made to wait a week, so in many cases, it’s best to stick to the plan.

The annual market report is out at popehandy.REReport.com and we can now learn how 2011 compared to 2010.  The median sales price for houses in Santa Clara County was off 5.3% overall.  But from one part of the valley to the next it varied wildly with 6 cities or areas finding themselves in positive territory while others were off by double digits.

In the image to the left, I’ve put into bold the cities where the median sales price of houses which sold and closed escrow in 2011 were ahead of 2010′s pricing.

What is it that makes Gilroy, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Mountain View and Palo Alto “in the black”?

Most of these cities/towns are upscale, west valley communities.  But so are Saratoga, Cupertino, and Monte Sereno.

Gilroy was especially hard-hit with the housing downturn so perhaps in that case, it’s just coming back into more of a balance. (Then again, so was Morgan Hill and it’s still off by 12%.)

The LinkedIn IPO and others in the Palo Alto area drove prices up for some parts of the housing market nearby and it’s likely that this explains the positive growth for Palo Alto, Mountain View, and Los Altos Hills.  That said, it would seem that Los Altos, and perhaps even Sunnyvale would have seen stronger numbers on the same account.  Perhaps school scores are the key driver here.

Los Gatos, Saratoga and Monte Sereno often behave somewhat similarly as they are adjacent to one another and often attract similar home buyers who want good schools, a nice downtown area nearby and scenic beauty with the hills.  The annual numbers show Monte Sereno down 6.7%, Saratoga down 2% but Los Gatos up 6.4%.  With Monte Sereno, there are very few sales each month and each year (only about 4,000 residents), so there can be a wider swing without it necessarily being accurate. Saratoga and Los Gatos each have about 30,000 people who call these areas home, though, so the data is much more helpful.  Saratoga and Los Gatos both have multiple school districts, views, homes with better proximity to “downtown” and more variables – I think we’d have to dig a lot deeper to learn why these two neighboring markets are so diverse.  We might also have to look at multiple years of data to see if Saratoga spiked while LG slumped to explain the difference. (more…)

What should you look for when buying a luxury home in Silicon Valley? Whether it’s a move-up purchase or a first home, there are a few tips which will be helpful for you to know going into it that will make the whole home buying experience smoother and easier.  We’ll hit on 3 areas: first geography & construction, second hyper local factors that impact market value, and finally qualities or features of the property or house itself.

It’s hard to assign an exact price tag on what constitutes an estate or luxury property, but in and near Silicon Valley, in most regions it’s the $2,000,000 and up price point (it will be less in Morgan Hill, Coyote and Gilroy – and likely more in Hillsborough).

1. Geography and Bay Area Construction: it’s different here!

The first and most important thing to understand is that real estate and housing construction vary from one region of the country (or the world) to the next.  This is true for all types of homes, actually, but perhaps more obvious in the priciest homes. Luxury real estate in Silicon Valley is a little different from similarly expensive homes in other parts of the country due to our climate, soil conditions, and natural hazards, such as earthquakes. What seems mandatory for a high end home (and might be ideal to have elsewhere) could be a problem here, so it’s helpful to literally understand the lay of the land before you get too far along the home buying path. A couple of quick examples:

• A fabulous home in Boston or anywhere in New England may be built of brick.
• Here, a brick house is seldom seen because of earthquakes – we need our houses to move and bricks are not usually too good at that!

I mention these two upfront because well intentioned friends and relatives may want to stress the importance of this or that in a property – and it may simply not apply here. (Please see article: Qualify The Advice You’ll Accept When Buying or Selling a Home in Silicon Valley)  If you are non-native to the San Francisco Bay Area, you may have assumptions about construction or architecture that may not work here. Please just be aware of that possibility.

2. Understand the importance of hyper local factors on the market value of a property

Schools can be a main driver for home values in the luxury market as all other segments.  Home buyers may not know that the town or city boundaries are usually irrelevant to school district boundaries. Here are a few examples:

• In Saratoga  there are 3 high school districts and 4 elementary school districts.  Before buying anywhere in Saratoga, then, you’ll want to know which district is which and where you’re buying.  If you want to utilize private schools, you may be delighted to find that you can buy more house for your money in one area of this lovely city than another.  Or you may want one school area over another for any number of reasons.
• In Los Gatos there are 2 high school districts and 3 elementary school districts.
• In the Almaden Valley area of San Jose, there are 3 high school districts and 3 elementary school districts

Often the lesser public school districts will have a lower lid on pricing than the very top districts or schools, so it’s important, when analyzing the pricing of an estate home, to factor in the weight of the school. (more…)

Halloween is almost here and it is time to get creative! Sereno’s in on the spirit too.   Each year, Sereno Group Real Estate offices in the San Jose and Silicon Valley area have a Halloween pumpkin decorating contest for kids.  Winner’s pumpkins (and names of winners if parental permission is received) will be advertised in our local papers after the contest is finished.

Contest Rules:

No Carving

Decorate your own small pumpkin, or pick up a complimentary pumpkin at one of our offices in Los Gatos, Saratoga, Soquel/Santa Cruz, Los Altos, or Palo Alto.

3 age groups: toddler, early elementary, late elementary

All contestants will receive a gift goodie bag

One grand prize per age group, per office, will be awarded

Any carved or punctured pumpkins will be disqualified due to rotting

All entries must be dropped off at your nearest Sereno Group Office by Friday, October 21st at 5pm.  Judging will happen the week of October 24th during our regular real estate marketing meeting.

Where and when can you drop off a pumpkin?  Please find the office locations and hours below.  We are looking forward to seeing some wonderful kids’ creations!

The Silicon Valley real estate market is a mixed bag and home buyers and sellers here may read the headlines and wonder why things seem so different in the news than in their own personal reality!

Here are a few quick facts and observations about the San Jose and Santa Clara County real estate market for houses, condos and townhouses:

• It is a seller’s market for both houses and condominiums in Santa Clara County (homes are selling well and very close to list price on average)
• The average and median sales price for houses & duet homes is down month over month and year over year (properties that are selling are those which are priced lower)
• For condos and townhomes, prices are up month over month (but down year over year).  The condo market here has taken a huge beating in recent years.
• The market is not equally hot everywhere!  It’s red hot in Palo Alto, Los Altos, Cupertino, and areas nearby (Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Mountain View).  It is also hot where there are low priced foreclosure houses which can be bought at bargain rates.  The move-up market has been tough entry level houses in the best school areas are very sought after right now.  (The market is decidedly cooler in Los Gatos and Almaden Valley.)
• Homes that are selling best are completely remodeled and have no “issues” (such as high voltage lines, poor floorplan, proximity to something undesirable etc.) and priced aggressively  OR are distressed sales with great pricing

In the best areas, or those with the hottest markets, we are seeing some multiple offers with overbidding.  At the same time, we are finding homes that look great but languish on the market due to some issue or another or pricing that’s not as competitive as it needs to be for today’s market (or both). (more…)

Multiple offers have returned to many segments of the Silicon Valley real estate market.  We are hearing about them in Palo Alto, Cupertino, Mountain View – areas where newly minted IPO money is having an impact – but also in more modest, middle class areas such as San Jose’s Cambrian neighborhood. The trend appears to be spreading.

What Silicon Valley home sellers need to know and do to attract multiple offers

If you’re a Silicon Valley home seller, what do you need to know to try to get multiples on your home?  What should you beware of?  In short, here’s what needs to happen if you want to attract multiple offers on your home for sale:

1. The home must be turnkey, either fully remodeled or close to it – it must look like there’s nothing or very little for a buyer to do.  In addition to being turnkey, it must be squeaky clean and well staged! It needs to be comfortable – not too hot, not too cold. You want buyers and their agent to linger longer.
   
2. The price must be at or even under market value.  That is, you must be willing to price it aggressively.  Think it’s worth $1,050,000?  You might list it at $999,999 to get in under a major price threshold and to be the very best, most attractive property for the money. Yes, it might be under priced.  Over priced listings get either one offer at best or, more likely, none at all.
3. The property must be highly accessible. If it is hard to see, you probably won’t get multiple offers (and may get none at all).  (Please see articles on accessibility and on open houses.)
4. Finally, the property must be well marketed.  This includes a wide range of factors ranging from photographs, text, fliers, signs, and even the commission rate offered to the buyer’s side.

What Silicon Valley home buyers need to know and do to compete with multiple offers

If you’re a Silicon Valley home buyer, how do you win out in multiples without giving away all of your rights or overpaying for your house/home? (more…)