Months of Inventory or Absorption Rate for Cupertino Real Estate

Cupertino is a red hot sellers’ market, but primarily or the most in the lower price ranges.  The higher the price of the home goes, generally speaking, the cooler the market gets.  Part of this is because Cupertino is not considered a luxury market.  Luxury homes are far more likely to be found in Los Altos and Saratoga than in Cupertino. Even so, there are areas, primarily in the foothills and west of Foothill Blvd., where high end homes can be found.

Yesterday afternoon I ran the “months of inventory” by price point in the city of Cupertino.  The absorption rate, or MOI, will tell us how long it would take for the current inventory to be totally absorbed by the market of buyers if no other homes came on the market.  The shorter the MOI is, the hotter the market is.  (Houses and duet homes only, not condos or town houses.)Have a look:

Houses up to $500,000: n/a (there aren’t any)
$500,000 to $999,999:    .2 Month of Inventory or MOI (2/10 of a month)
$1 million to $1,499,999: . 61 MOI
$1,500,000 to $1,999,999:   2.75 MOI
$2 million to $2,499,999:  infinite (3 homes for sale, none closed in last 30 days)
$2.5 million to $2,999,999: 1 MOI
$3 million and up:  n/a

It’s a little bit of a fluke that the 2.5—3 million group was “1”. There was one sale and it was just barely over the line – it sold for $2,505,000.  Had it slipped just a little bit, the group prior would have had 3 months of inventory (1 closing for 3 listings currently active). The trend is pretty clear: the higher the price, the longer homes take to be absorbed into the market.  We can fairly think of this segment as 3 months of inventory, which isn’t bad at all but is not “red hot”.

Hottest of the hot are houses listed for sale at under $1,000,000 in the city of Cupertino – they are flying off the market at .2 months of inventory, or about 1 week!  It cools as prices rise.

Cupertino Median List Prices Compared to Neighboring Saratoga, Sunnyvale and Los Altos

We know that the median sales price in Cupertino has been climbing steadily since March 1st (reflecting sales beginning in early February). How does it compare to nearby areas?

Los Altos is selling for the most of these 4 areas, but list prices are now falling. Saratoga was dippping but now rising again. Sunnyvale has been somewhat flat recently but improving. But Cupertino’s prices are making the steepest improvement. Perhaps these low prices are the drivers for the crazy hot market activity. (more…)

Real estate market conditions advisory

This week I’m having a deja vu from 2000.  If you were here in Silicon Valley then, during the “dot com boom”, you remember a frenzy with the hot sellers market, of home buying with multiple offers, and prices rising rapidly.

In some parts of the market, it’s back.

One of the ugly parts of that market is back too, the “non-contingent offer“.  I’m not talking about offers subject to the sale of another home (aka “contingent offers”). I’m talking about home buyers waiving their inspection contingency and their loan & appraisal contingencies.  (Not clear on home buyer contingencies? Please see my article: “Competing against multiple offers: contingencies and timeframes“.)

Listing agents know better than to give a counter offer demanding a non-contingent offer; that’s a lawsuit waiting to happen if the buyer feels coerced and later gets some sort of nasty surprise. But boy oh boy, do they know how to hint that it’s what they want.  And that’s not a lot different from demanding it.

Silicon Valley home buyers are given many disclosure and contract papers to sign when submitting their bids to purchase residential real estate.  It is important to read and understand them and the risks about which they warn.  One disclosure which is used – or should be used – on most every transaction is the “market conditions advisory“, which warns of risks in multiple offers and some of the ways that buyers may try to have the winning bid that may not really be a good idea in the long run.  The full name of the form is this: (more…)

Right now I’m working with a number of very frustrated home buyers.  Silicon Valley real estate inventory is painfully low, and in the lower price ranges especially, that means multiple offers are fairly common.  FHA home buyers, in particular, are getting out bid and out negotiated by all cash buyers, many of whom are investors.

How low is the inventory?  Let’s have a look at January’s inventory for houses & duet homes (“class 1″ or single family homes) over the last ten years in Santa Clara County (San Jose, Los Gatos, Campbell, etc.):

2012  1,382
2011  2,007
2010  2,426
2009  4,759
2008  4,872
2007  2,698
2006  2,202
2005  1,285
2004  1,612
2003  3,119

The average January inventory of available houses over the last 10 years is 2,636.  At 1,382, January 2012′s available inventory of houses for sale in the San Jose area was just 52% of normal.  (more…)

Median List price for San Jose 95129

The Silicon Valley real estate market is a mixed bag and home buyers and sellers here may read the headlines and wonder why things seem so different in the news than in their own personal reality!

Here are a few quick facts and observations about the San Jose and Santa Clara County real estate market for houses, condos and townhouses:

• It is a seller’s market for both houses and condominiums in Santa Clara County (homes are selling well and very close to list price on average)
• The average and median sales price for houses & duet homes is down month over month and year over year (properties that are selling are those which are priced lower)
• For condos and townhomes, prices are up month over month (but down year over year).  The condo market here has taken a huge beating in recent years.
• The market is not equally hot everywhere!  It’s red hot in Palo Alto, Los Altos, Cupertino, and areas nearby (Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Mountain View).  It is also hot where there are low priced foreclosure houses which can be bought at bargain rates.  The move-up market has been tough entry level houses in the best school areas are very sought after right now.  (The market is decidedly cooler in Los Gatos and Almaden Valley.)
• Homes that are selling best are completely remodeled and have no “issues” (such as high voltage lines, poor floorplan, proximity to something undesirable etc.) and priced aggressively  OR are distressed sales with great pricing

In the best areas, or those with the hottest markets, we are seeing some multiple offers with overbidding.  At the same time, we are finding homes that look great but languish on the market due to some issue or another or pricing that’s not as competitive as it needs to be for today’s market (or both). (more…)

Multiple offers have returned to many segments of the Silicon Valley real estate market.  We are hearing about them in Palo Alto, Cupertino, Mountain View – areas where newly minted IPO money is having an impact – but also in more modest, middle class areas such as San Jose’s Cambrian neighborhood. The trend appears to be spreading.

What Silicon Valley home sellers need to know and do to attract multiple offers

If you’re a Silicon Valley home seller, what do you need to know to try to get multiples on your home?  What should you beware of?  In short, here’s what needs to happen if you want to attract multiple offers on your home for sale:

1. The home must be turnkey, either fully remodeled or close to it – it must look like there’s nothing or very little for a buyer to do.  In addition to being turnkey, it must be squeaky clean and well staged! It needs to be comfortable – not too hot, not too cold. You want buyers and their agent to linger longer.
   
2. The price must be at or even under market value.  That is, you must be willing to price it aggressively.  Think it’s worth $1,050,000?  You might list it at $999,999 to get in under a major price threshold and to be the very best, most attractive property for the money. Yes, it might be under priced.  Over priced listings get either one offer at best or, more likely, none at all.
3. The property must be highly accessible. If it is hard to see, you probably won’t get multiple offers (and may get none at all).  (Please see articles on accessibility and on open houses.)
4. Finally, the property must be well marketed.  This includes a wide range of factors ranging from photographs, text, fliers, signs, and even the commission rate offered to the buyer’s side.

What Silicon Valley home buyers need to know and do to compete with multiple offers

If you’re a Silicon Valley home buyer, how do you win out in multiples without giving away all of your rights or overpaying for your house/home? (more…)

The Los Gatos real estate market for houses & duet homes looks pretty good at first glance, but if you scratch the surface and analyze some of the sub-markets, we see that it varies widely as to how “the” market is faring. (It’s not one market, but many smaller markets near each other.)

Yesterday I spent some time pulling apart the housing market in Los Gatos (for houses and duet homes, not condos) by school district and price point to get the months of inventory.  Here’s a brief summary:

The market gets substantially colder as you go up in price – read more and get more details on Live in Los Gatos!

More reading…

How’s the Los Gatos Real Estate Market Doing Now?
Please also view the current statistics care of Altos Research on my popehandy.com site on the Los Gatos real estate market (uses list prices rather than solds):
How’s the Real Estate Market in Los Gatos?