Home buyers (and sellers too) here in Silicon Valley like to “see the comps” when trying to determine fair market value or the probable buyer’s value for real estate.  Usually that translates into seeing what sold & closed escrow recently and for how much.

In a rapidly appreciating market and a strong seller’s market, though, the comps are not so much help as you might hope.  They are yesterday’s news!  What closed escrow last week was negotiated 30 or 35 days prior, in most cases.  By the time a San Jose area home is on record as a newly closed sale, it may already be out of date information. Not only that, but the MLS won’t tell us, at least not in most cases, how many offers there were or details about them - such has how many of them were all cash offers.

I see this mistake a lot in my real estate practice across Santa Clara County.  Clients want to view sales around a property they’re interested in. With our terribly severe inventory shortage, there may not be enough recently closed sales – so we look further out in location, futher back in time.  If prices are going up fast (as they are in Cupertino, Palo Alto and elsewhere), the only way you will be in step with the market is if you also factor in the appreciation that has likely taken place since each comparable property has closed escrow, whether that was 2 weeks ago or 3 months ago.  And that’s hard to guage.

What to do, then?

Your best knowledge will come from or be supplemented by information from pending sales; the most recent ones and closest ones are going to be the best, of course.  This is where your agent may be of great help to you either from the networking he or she does naturally, from direct experience on sales made or lost, or from proactively reaching out to listing agents to see if they can glean some information.

Addionally, you will want to factor in the number of offers a property is getting before deciding the price you will offer.  It is another very common home buyer mistake to look at the price of sold homes nearby, determine what seems fair, and then plough ahead without considering the level of interest that the house or condo is generating.  If there are multiple offers, you can reasonably expect that most of the time (if not all, in today’s market)  the sales price will be above the list price.  It will be unproductive for you to lowball (writing an offer more than 5% or 10% under list price).  Even if your offer is all cash, remember that sellers want the most possible for their property – they are not going to give you a huge discount on pricing.  Some, yes – in my experience usually around 2-3% – but not a huge amount off. They would rather wait a month and get a lot more money!

Factoring in the absorption rate (months, weeks or days of inventory) may be helpful to you also, especially if you cannot get info on the homes which are sale pending. (My Santa Clara County REReport includes this information, btw.)

In summary, don’t just look at the comps – they are a backward and incomplete view of what happened when the sale was negotiated.  Consider what’s under contract or pending now, and perhaps above all, take into account the current competition for the property you want.

Buyers who are getting slammed out of the Silicon Valley real estate market due to low inventory and multiple offers are extremely frustrated. In many cases, they write offer after offer, and each time not only are their bids rejected, but they never even get a counter offer.

You should not depend on getting a 2nd chance, of course.  Just because you write a contract on a San Jose area home does not mean that the seller needs to give you a counter offer.  Some agents and sellers don’t respond at all – not nice, but if you get dozens of offers, sometimes that does happen.  Sometimes they just take the best offer and run. Othertimes they only counter the best offer and forget the rest.

The question arises all the time: why isn’t my 20% down offer just as good as the 50% down or the All Cash offer? Isn’t 20% down good enough?

Cash is better because there’s less risk

Twenty percent down is “good enough” if there are no other offers. If it’s multiple offers, though, it’s probably not sufficient for most sellers provided that the all cash offers are written with realistic pricing. Right now, 25% of all sales in Santa Clara County are all cash, and sellers would far rather deal with an offer that includes no finance or appraisal contingencies.  For sellers, the fewer contingencies the better and no contingencies is ideal.  Particularly now, when we are seeing a very sudden and dramatic upswing in pricing, appraisal contingencies can kill an offer’s chances of success. With all cash, there is no appraisal at all – it’s a slam dunk on that front. (more…)

What is a real estate bidding war, and why is it back in Silicon Valley?

It is a supply and demand issue.  When there’s not enough supply for the demand, prices get pushed up.  The way that this happens is often through bidding wars.

When a lot of home buyers want the same property and write purchase offers for it, we have multiple offers.  In some markets, multiple offers come in at or under list price (I have seen this in cooler markets). But when the realty market is an overheated sellers market, inventory is too low for the demand, prices rise with those multiple bids.  Then you have bidding wars.

This can happen intentionally, as when home sellers knowingly under price the property to attract multiple buyers, or it can happen unintentionally, when the owner and agent priced the home in line with the comps and the market, but there’s an unexpected avalanche of interest. (The latter just happened to me when I priced a listing to be exactly in line with the market, but got 20 offers and a lot of overbidding.)   Either way, the result is similar.  Buyers up their price and sweeten their terms to win the deal.  Here’s what can happen:

• offers come in over list price
• usually the escrow period is short, to assure the seller it’s a “done deal”
• if owner occupied, often there’s a free rent back of a month or two
• some buyers may offer to pay costs that customarily are paid by the seller, such as an owner’s policy of title insurance, the escrow fee, transfer taxes, and in some cases, even the commission
• most of the time, “cash is king”, and the all cash offers will win the deal (or large down payments) – very hard for 20% down or less to compete against cash offers because they usually include an appraisal contingency (with prices escalating, many homes won’t appraise)
• many offers with no contingencies for inspections, loan, and appraisal – non-contingent offers can be dangerous, most of all if there are no presale disclosures or inspections
• most offers will come with proof of funds
• some will have the disclosures already signed too
• some will include a letter from the Realtor, the buyer or both – buyers may also include a photo

But let’s focus on the bidding part in particular for a moment.  How is all of this a bidding war? Is it just that offers come in over the asking price?  Yes, but sometimes even more is going on too. Let’s look at that now. (more…)

It’s a red hot seller’s market in Silicon Valley right now, meaning that there are more buyers hunting for just the right property than there are listings available.  The end result is multiple offers, bidding wars, pre-emptive offers and rapidly escalating real estate prices in many areas and segments of the market.

When there are lots and lots of bids on a San Jose area home for sale, what do home sellers do?  Most of the time, sellers begin with an “elimination list”.  That is, they start by deciding what they do not want to deal with. The more offers there are, the more critical this becomes since sellers normally don’t love the idea of reading 10 or more stacks of offers.  (Remember, the confused mind says no!) 

Sellers need to simplify their choices, and one of them is by eliminating the worst offers first.  A question for you to consider, if you’re a home buyer in Los Gatos, Saratoga, Campbell or anywhere in Silicon Valley is this: is your lender keeping your offer from getting accepted?  Does your lender make your offer worse to the seller? Sometimes that is exactly the case.

In some cases, certain banks or even credit unions are falling into the “elimination” list for some sellers as their agents may have advised them those lending institutions are slow or difficult.  Most of the time, these are the big banks – the ones that REO or short sale listing agents are demanding that consumers use for a pre-approval for submitting offers: (more…)

How’s the real estate market in San Jose’s Almaden Valley? Commentary and statistics…..

It’s actuallya lot hotter than the numbers for the Almaden closed sales in February might indicate; the last 2-3 weeks have seen a heat-up the likes of which I have not seen since 2000. Many properties are selling fast, sometimes with multiple offers.  We are experiencing this trend throughout the west valley areas: Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Palo Alto and on up the Peninsula.  These multiple offers are pushing prices higher. In many cases, it is much higher.  I’m seeing some overbids of more than $100,000 in some cases as well as offers with no contingencies for loan or home inspection. Listing agents sometimes write in their private MLS comments for other agents “no pre-emptive offers“.

What’s driving it?  There are years of pent up demand in which would-be home buyers sat on the fence, either because they expected further price drops or because, in the case of move-up buyers, they didn’t have enough equity to budge.  With record low interest rates and prices creeping up – combined with an infusion of cash from high tech employees with either great stock prices (Apple) or an IPO (LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, and more), there’s the classic case of more demand than supply. 

Almost every offer I’ve been involved with over the last month has been a multiple offer situation, whether in south San Jose, Blossom Valley, Cambrian, Los Gatos, or Saratoga.  Prices from $400,000 to $1,800,000 – all at least 5 offers, sometimes far more.  As Chris Trappani, the CEO and founder of Sereno Group says, “we’re seeing it now – the papers will report on it in a month”.

Stats for the Almaden real estate market for houses in February 2012 (click on link to see more info):

Note that the median sales price is up almost 15% from January and the average price rose 7% month over month. Year over year it’s not so good but from what we are seeing, it’s unlikely to look like this when the March 2012 numbers roll in.  Also note the jump in pending sales and the lower number of actives – less inventory, more absorption.

Real estate market conditions advisory

This week I’m having a deja vu from 2000.  If you were here in Silicon Valley then, during the “dot com boom”, you remember a frenzy with the hot sellers market, of home buying with multiple offers, and prices rising rapidly.

In some parts of the market, it’s back.

One of the ugly parts of that market is back too, the “non-contingent offer“.  I’m not talking about offers subject to the sale of another home (aka “contingent offers”). I’m talking about home buyers waiving their inspection contingency and their loan & appraisal contingencies.  (Not clear on home buyer contingencies? Please see my article: “Competing against multiple offers: contingencies and timeframes“.)

Listing agents know better than to give a counter offer demanding a non-contingent offer; that’s a lawsuit waiting to happen if the buyer feels coerced and later gets some sort of nasty surprise. But boy oh boy, do they know how to hint that it’s what they want.  And that’s not a lot different from demanding it.

Silicon Valley home buyers are given many disclosure and contract papers to sign when submitting their bids to purchase residential real estate.  It is important to read and understand them and the risks about which they warn.  One disclosure which is used – or should be used – on most every transaction is the “market conditions advisory“, which warns of risks in multiple offers and some of the ways that buyers may try to have the winning bid that may not really be a good idea in the long run.  The full name of the form is this: (more…)

Right now I’m working with a number of very frustrated home buyers.  Silicon Valley real estate inventory is painfully low, and in the lower price ranges especially, that means multiple offers are fairly common.  FHA home buyers, in particular, are getting out bid and out negotiated by all cash buyers, many of whom are investors.

How low is the inventory?  Let’s have a look at January’s inventory for houses & duet homes (“class 1″ or single family homes) over the last ten years in Santa Clara County (San Jose, Los Gatos, Campbell, etc.):

2012  1,382
2011  2,007
2010  2,426
2009  4,759
2008  4,872
2007  2,698
2006  2,202
2005  1,285
2004  1,612
2003  3,119

The average January inventory of available houses over the last 10 years is 2,636.  At 1,382, January 2012′s available inventory of houses for sale in the San Jose area was just 52% of normal.  (more…)