Months of Inventory or Absorption Rate for Cupertino Real Estate

Cupertino is a red hot sellers’ market, but primarily or the most in the lower price ranges.  The higher the price of the home goes, generally speaking, the cooler the market gets.  Part of this is because Cupertino is not considered a luxury market.  Luxury homes are far more likely to be found in Los Altos and Saratoga than in Cupertino. Even so, there are areas, primarily in the foothills and west of Foothill Blvd., where high end homes can be found.

Yesterday afternoon I ran the “months of inventory” by price point in the city of Cupertino.  The absorption rate, or MOI, will tell us how long it would take for the current inventory to be totally absorbed by the market of buyers if no other homes came on the market.  The shorter the MOI is, the hotter the market is.  (Houses and duet homes only, not condos or town houses.)Have a look:

Houses up to $500,000: n/a (there aren’t any)
$500,000 to $999,999:    .2 Month of Inventory or MOI (2/10 of a month)
$1 million to $1,499,999: . 61 MOI
$1,500,000 to $1,999,999:   2.75 MOI
$2 million to $2,499,999:  infinite (3 homes for sale, none closed in last 30 days)
$2.5 million to $2,999,999: 1 MOI
$3 million and up:  n/a

It’s a little bit of a fluke that the 2.5—3 million group was “1”. There was one sale and it was just barely over the line – it sold for $2,505,000.  Had it slipped just a little bit, the group prior would have had 3 months of inventory (1 closing for 3 listings currently active). The trend is pretty clear: the higher the price, the longer homes take to be absorbed into the market.  We can fairly think of this segment as 3 months of inventory, which isn’t bad at all but is not “red hot”.

Hottest of the hot are houses listed for sale at under $1,000,000 in the city of Cupertino – they are flying off the market at .2 months of inventory, or about 1 week!  It cools as prices rise.

Cupertino Median List Prices Compared to Neighboring Saratoga, Sunnyvale and Los Altos

We know that the median sales price in Cupertino has been climbing steadily since March 1st (reflecting sales beginning in early February). How does it compare to nearby areas?

Los Altos is selling for the most of these 4 areas, but list prices are now falling. Saratoga was dippping but now rising again. Sunnyvale has been somewhat flat recently but improving. But Cupertino’s prices are making the steepest improvement. Perhaps these low prices are the drivers for the crazy hot market activity.

Cupertino median list price of houses by price quartile

Focusing just on Cupertino, let’s see how the information looks if we break it down into the pricing tier. Often the entry level houses are a very different “market” than the luxury homes segment.

The last few months have had some ups and downs in pricing, but most segments of the Cupertino real estate market have seen an uptick since early Feb (when the market seemed to turn on a dime for the west valley communities with the best schools).  The luxury market in Cupertino has been a little slower to see improvement but it is registering there now, too.

What if we look back more than a year? Combining the quartiles, the trends look pretty volatile:

What’s happening with the most expensive homes for sale in Cupertino?  They have had a rough time of it – but currently there’s an uptick in the market at this price point. Here’s the same data just for the top quartile, the most expensive properties (luxury homes segment):

For the 2nd top tier (upper middle):

3rd level or lower middle:

And most affordable Cupertino houses or lowest quartile:

Cupertino Days on Market by Price Quartile: What’s Selling Fastest

Not surprisingly, the luxury market has had a harder time selling than entry level houses in Cupertino. This is true for most of the West Valley areas of Santa Clara County. Here’s a look at the days on market (DOM) for Cupertino by price point over the last year.

Remember, all real estate is local. For information on your exact area or price point, please contact me. I work with my clients to pinpoint the pricing.

What drives the Cupertino real estate market?

The residential real estate market in Cupertino, California, is driven in large part by the extremely high quality of its local public schools.  Many in Silicon Valley would state that for San Jose area home buyers, Cupertino offers the best “bang for the buck” when one lines up the cost of purchasing a home to the schools’ API scores. (Conversely, some residents are concerned that the very top schools – including but not limited to Cupertino – are so focused on academics that there may be too much pressure on kids and may lack balance for them.)

Other drivers are, of course, the local economy (such as the initial public offerings happening with some of the Silicon Valley tech giants), the availability of more affordable financing, and how the realty market in general is performing for any particular price point or particular school area. (Even within Cupertino, some schools are much more in demand than others.)  Comments in this article refer generally to this city of about 50,000 residents – real estate is local, though, so for precise information in any given area or tier of the market, please contact me!

Houses for sale in Cupertino California

Please browse houses for sale in Cupertino, listed from the lowest prices up to the highest.

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 28. See more city of Cupertino real estate.
(all data current as of 5/25/2012)

1. $759,000 : 10650 Minette Dr, Cupertino
   
   3 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 1,048 sq ft

   Lot size: 5,600 sqft
   
2. $899,000 : 10326 Byrne Av, Cupertino
   
   2 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 840 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,375 sqft
   
3. $939,888 : 20237 Bollinger Rd, Cupertino
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,688 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,500 sqft
   
4. $949,900 : 20345 Via Volante, Cupertino
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,167 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,613 sqft
   
5. $990,000 : 10042 Byrne Av, Cupertino
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,616 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,356 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Multiple offers continue to be a common occurance in the Silicon Valley real estate scene right now.  When there are an abundance of home buyers for one property, it can be overwhelming for the seller.  Some home owners may want to issue a multiple counter offer to the best qualified, most serious bidders.  But not all do.  You should never count on it.

Sometimes property owners in the San Jose area simply accept the best offer.  If so, that’s the end of the story. It does happen.

Often, the highest price is not the offer with the best terms, even in a bidding war.  Home sellers want both, of course – the least risk with the most cash. (Sometimes there are other factors, too, such as a rent back, escrow length, or other issues beyond cash and risk.)  In those cases, frequently the Realtor or real estate sales person (the listing agent) will coach the seller to counter one or more of the better buyers (best prices and terms) to improve the final sale on both counts.   Some sellers don’t want to do this, though – it’s stressful, they are afraid that everyone will say no and they’ll be left with the property unsold.  Alternatively, then, they may counter only one offer – and tell the buyer’s agent that they are the only one, at least for now. If negotiations don’t work with the first buyer, the listing agent may go back to the others.

Meanwhile, everyone waits, everyone wonders what’s going on.  The longer it takes to hear back, usually the lower the odds are that their contract will be the successful one, or even one getting a counter offer.

Why didn’t I get a counter offer?  Why didn’t the seller at least give me a second chance? Buyers wonder this all the time.  Some buyers submit 5 or 10 offers, all unsuccessful, and they still wonder.  The harsh reality is simple: your offer wasn’t good enough.  Either your price or your terms (or supporting documents) didn’t cut it. Write your contract as if you only have one chance, because that’s the reality most of the time.

What is an exclusion in a real estate contract? What is an inclusion? Both of these refer to fixtures at the property which is for sale.

Generally speaking, a fixture is any item affixed or attached to the house, townhouse, condo or property which is installed with the intention that it be there permanently. For example, cabinets in the bathroom, kitchen or elsewhere are fixtures. So are lights mounted from the ceiling, built-in ovens, in-ground (not potted) rose bushes.  The exception to the rule is anything attached solely for earthquake safety.  This would be the case if you have a large hutch which you have bolted to the wall so that it doesn’t topple in the case of a big quake. In Silicon Valley, fixtures are normally included with the sale of the home.

Exclusions refer to fixtures which the seller does not want to include with the sale of the real property (real estate).  For instance, there may be a light fixture in the dining room which is a family heirloom and the seller does not want to leave it with the house.  It would be noted either in the MLS, with a note at the property or mentioned when the buyer’s agent calls the listing agent to ask about offer instructions. Other examples could be a special fireplace screen, curtains in one or more rooms (may match a bedspread or other decor), or even a rose bush in the garden that has sentimental value.

Inclusions refer to personal property (property which is not affixed) which the seller will leave even though it is not required since it’s not attached.  Commonly we see refrigerators, washers and dryers included, even when they are not attached.  Sometimes furniture may be negotiated also, such as patio dining set, a sofa or perhaps a very large dining table that won’t fit into the seller’s new house, but fits where it is perfectly.

It is important to note that if an inclusion is mentioned in the MLS, it still should be written into the purchase agreement if the buyer wants it (and this is written into the contract form as a reminder). Otherwise the seller is free to donate, share or sell those items.

When in doubt as to whether or not something is included or excluded from the sale, always ask before writing or accepting a contract to avoid unhappy surprises or conflicts later!

What’s the Silicon Valley real estate market doing? Silicon Valley is composed of many micro markets, and they may all behave independently of one another, but we are seeing some general trends.We’ll have a look at them today.  Things have really, really changed from six months ago. It’s very dramatic.

First, a city by city comparison of the numbers for the county and Campbell, Cupertino, Los Gatos, Saratoga, San Jose (as a whole), Sunnyvale, etc. This first chart is for houses in the cities and towns of Santa Clara County. On the first line, which is for the entire county, please notice the sales price to list price ration – it is over 100%.  This is perhaps the best indicator of the market heat we see here.  Also note how low inventory is for the county – from a year ago, it’s off 29.2% (and that year was low also).

Santa Clara County residential real estate statistics by city for single family homes March 2012

Perhaps not surprisingly, the sales price to list price ratio is highest in Palo Alto, where it was nearly 109%. Mountain View came in at 103%, Cupertino and Los Altos at 102%, Los Gatos, San Jose and Sunnyvale at a little over 100%.  Some areas, such as Monte Sereno, have so few sales that their numbers fluctuate wildly (in the case of Monte Sereno, best to look to similar areas of Los Gatos for the best sense of pricing, usually, as they share schools, parks, police etc.).

Next, the same type of data but for condominiums and townhouses rather than houses & duet homes:

Santa Clara County residential real estate statistics by city for condos & townhomes March 2012

The condo market has been taking a beating for years, but at long last, the sales price to list price ratio is now very close to 100% (99.9% for the county) and many areas are more than 100%: Campbell, Cupertino, Los Altos, Milpitas, Mountain View, and Palo Alto. Most of the rest of the county is at 99% with just a couple of exceptions.  What’s happening? The inventory here tells the story: county wide, it’s down 74% from last year.  In Campbell and Los Altos it’s off 75%.

Inventory is at record lows, buyer demand is way up: we have a strong sellers’ market with multiple offers and overbids

First, there’s extremely low inventory. In February there were just 1389 single family homes for sale in Santa Clara County.  A balanced market is somewhere around 3000 homes – so this is quite severe!  In fact, it’s the lowest amount of inventory for any February going back 10 years.  Here’s what it has looked like in other Februarys, per my Santa Clara County Real Estate Report (you can see these numbers yourselves):

2012  1389
2011  1812
2010  1739
2009  5443
2008  5338
2007  2876
2006  2235
2005  1412
2004  1672
2003  3410
2002  1965
2001  1784

Prices are moving up

Second, prices have started to climb in much of San Jose and other areas, especially in cities or towns with really good public schools like Cupertino and Palo Alto.  Talk of triple or other “dips” is long gone. Looks like 2009 was our low point for pricing, and since then we’ve been bouncing along the bottom – until now.

How do we know that they are rising? For those of us who are in the market, we are seeing it each time we have a listing that gets multiple offers and sells so high that we know that we have an “appraisal problem” or when we put offers out for buyers that are over list price with great terms but we lose out to a bidder who’s all cash and $100,000 over the list price, where there are NO comps to support it.  And that is what is happening right now in many areas and price points.

Also, of course, we can do the math.  I’ve been crunching numbers on what’s happening in Cupertino (insanely fast rising prices), Saratoga, Los Gatos, Campbell, Almaden, Cambrian, Willow Glen, Santa Clara and more  – all with rising prices very noticeably but not 10% per month, which appears to be what’s happening in Cupertino.

Other things are at play, too – unemployment is better, Apple stock is trading at $600 per share, and of course, there are IPOs happening on the Peninsula and in the South Bay.

How is this different from the seller’s market we’ve been in for the last few years?

It is true that it’s been a seller’s market for awhile here, but it was a seller’s market with soft or even falling prices.  Buyers were willing to buy as long as the prices were so low that they hurt.

Now the shoe is on the other foot.  Almost overnight, it went from a seller’s market with soft pricing to a seller’s market with rising prices, and in some areas such as 95129 with Cupertino schools, it’s dramatically rising prices.  Really not the same thing, though the following chart might mislead you into a complacent sense that nothing has really changed.  That would be a mistake.

Every market is good for someone. Right now, it’s good for sellers, especially if they are selling and moving out of the area. But many sellers continue to wait, hoping that in a year they will sell for much more.  They may well be right.  Meanwhile, the dire shortage of inventory combined with buyers who’ve been sitting  on the sidelines for years waiting for prices to quit falling have all jumped in at once.  It’s been like this before – it was like this in the late 80s when Jim & I were trying to buy our first home, and a decade later when we did our move up.  We saw craziness in 2000 and again in 2006-2007.

The risk, of course, is that in this overheated market, what we really have is another bubble.  It’s certainly possible but one never knows when it’s happening if that’s the case or not.   To those sellers who want to wait, please understand that this can be a risky game. It’s very hard to time the exact top or bottom of the market.  If you are ready to move, analyze everything.  What you hope may be the sales price in a year may or may not be there.  It could be better than today, it could be worse.  My sense is that it is likely to be better but we don’t ever know what’s around the corner.  If you are thinking of selling now, the opportunity is fantastic.  Call or me if you’d like to discuss your plans and hopes.  I’ve been selling homes since February of 1993 and know the ups and downs of the market in Silicon Valley.

Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor

Working with home sellers and buyers in Santa Clara County
and focusing on the “West Valley” areas of Los Gatos, Almaden, Cambrian, Saratoga, Willow Glen, Campbell, Cupertino, Monte Sereno, Santa Clara, and other parts of San Jose and the rest of Silicon Valley

Sereno Group
408 204-7673
mary (at) popehandy (dot) com

The Oaktree Park neighborhood in San Jose is a scenic residential community with wide appeal to home buyers due to good Almaden schools, close proximity to large parks and is one of only a few areas in Almaden Valley which includes a cabaña and swim team.  Additionally, this area is very convenient as it’s  close to schools, shops and commute routes to downtown San Jose and much of Silicon Valley. It is a fairly intimate neighborhood with 156 homes.

Where is the Oaktree Park neighborhood?

The Oaktree Park subdivision is within the boundaries of Meridian Avenue, Redmond Avenue and Mcabbe Road on three sides and the Jeffrey Fontana Park on the north side.

The census bureau (and perhaps also the city of San Jose) has attributed names to some parts of Almaden and this neighborhood falls into the Crossgates section.  I do not believe that most residents refer to this area that way, though.  Perhaps more likely they’d call it part of the greater Fontana Park neighborhood.

Oaktree Park Neighborhood in San Jose (Almaden Valley area of SJ) - click on image above to go to live Google Map

What schools serve the Oaktree Park neighborhood in San Jose?

The public schools for Oaktree Park are within the San Jose Unified School District:

Los Alamitos Elementary School (API 916 in 2010)
Castillero Middle School (API 806 in 2010)
Pioneer High School (API 823 in 2010)

Los Alamitos Elementary and Holy Spirit Elementary (Catholic) are both just a couple of blocks from Oaktree Park.  Additonally there are 2 preschools really close too:  Precious Preschool and Shepherd of the Valley Lutheran Preschool.

For more information and links for schools, school districts, API scores and maps of boundaries lines for schools in the Almaden area of San Jose, please also read:

Schools, API Scores & Maps of School Boundaries in San Jose’s Almaden Valley

What are homes like in Oaktree Park?

Homes in Oaktree Park are single family dwellings – all detached houses (no townhouses or condominiums).  These are primarily ranch style or two story ranch style houses, built in the early 1970s  on lots of about 8000 to 9000 square feet, though a few are more than that.  Interior size runs between about 1600 square feet to about 3000 square feet (if added on). Prices may be in the mid 600s for a smaller home, needing work and a less desirable location (such as on a busy road or immediately adjacent to the high voltage power lines that run through the park) to perhaps a little over a million dollars for a beautifully updated or rebuilt larger home in an ideal location within the neighborhood.

Oaktree Park Neighborhood Home for Sale: 6064 Ostenberg Drive

This week I put a fabulously remodeled and expanded Oaktree Park neighborhood home on the market!  This exquisite house has an awesomely open floorplan with an amazing kitchen – a gourmet’s delight!  Have a look at the details! Open Sat/Sun, April 21-22, 2012 1-4pm.

We're sorry, but we couldn't find MLS # 81213394 in our database. This property may be a new listing or possibly taken off the market. Please check back again.

More information on the Oaktree Park Neighborhood!

Oaktree Park Neighborhood fun: the cabaña, clubhouse, swim team and parks

The cabaña and community grounds are located on Crestoak Court (where a large oak tree did once stand).  The swim team, the Sharks, serve children up to age 18.

The HOA has a “welcome new neighbors” page with some great information on nearby amenities.

There’s a huge amount of open space and parkland adjacent to Oaktree Park, with both trails for walking, biking or rollerblading as well as expanses of lawn and natural open spaces which invite deer and other indigenous wildlife.  Nearby parks include the Jeffrey Fontana Park, the Guadalupe Oak Grove Park  just beyond that and the TJ Martin Park a little to the west of these two.  These three parks are connected and provide a fabulous network of trails.

Turnover is pretty low in this neighborhood as residents appreciate the access to the community pool, the parks, schools, shops and commute venues.  In many ways, this tidy little neighborhood offers the very best of Almaden: community, multiple reasons to be outdoors and a pretty location with lovely views.

Buyers who are getting slammed out of the Silicon Valley real estate market due to low inventory and multiple offers are extremely frustrated. In many cases, they write offer after offer, and each time not only are their bids rejected, but they never even get a counter offer.

You should not depend on getting a 2nd chance, of course.  Just because you write a contract on a San Jose area home does not mean that the seller needs to give you a counter offer.  Some agents and sellers don’t respond at all – not nice, but if you get dozens of offers, sometimes that does happen.  Sometimes they just take the best offer and run. Othertimes they only counter the best offer and forget the rest.

The question arises all the time: why isn’t my 20% down offer just as good as the 50% down or the All Cash offer? Isn’t 20% down good enough?

Cash is better because there’s less risk

Twenty percent down is “good enough” if there are no other offers. If it’s multiple offers, though, it’s probably not sufficient for most sellers provided that the all cash offers are written with realistic pricing. Right now, 25% of all sales in Santa Clara County are all cash, and sellers would far rather deal with an offer that includes no finance or appraisal contingencies.  For sellers, the fewer contingencies the better and no contingencies is ideal.  Particularly now, when we are seeing a very sudden and dramatic upswing in pricing, appraisal contingencies can kill an offer’s chances of success. With all cash, there is no appraisal at all – it’s a slam dunk on that front.

What happens if the property doesn’t appraise?

With the 20% down (or FHA or other loan product) situation, if the property does not appraise to the sales price, either the buyer will have to put in more cash, the seller will have to reduce the price, or the house/condo/townhouse will end up going back on the market.  That appraisal is a great “safety net” for buyers but for sellers it’s an albatross!

Don’t lose heart, many cash buyers are unrealistically low in their bids

What I’m finding is that with multiple offers and cash buyers, some of those with money in hand are overly confident on what that no-loan status will bring them.  Recently I got 20 offers on a Santa Clara condo listing, 8 of them cash, but of those, only 2 or 3 were really ever contenders.  The rest of the buyers who were flush with money grossly under bid the home.  The cash is probably worth a 2-3% discount – but some cash buyers were off by much more than that – a giant gap of more than 15% from the lowest cash offer to the highest financed offer.

In most cases, the best cash offer will get a counter that raises it closer to the financed offer – but perhaps not all the way to that amount.  But the unrealistically low cash offers will get completely passed over.

As a buyer with a loan, what can you do?  Here are a few ideas:

• Try to avoid multiple offer situations (that may mean bidding on properties which are overpriced, distressed, need work etc.)
• Ask your agent to assist you in finding off-market properties (this will probably involve your signing a buyer broker agreement, since the MLS is the way in which agents are promised compensation for their work)
• Analyze which parts of the valley appear to be over heated – are there other areas which would suit you as well which are not getting so much attention? you may find a much better deal, and better odds, there.
• Find ways to make your offer less risky to the seller.  Some buyers will write non-contingent offers (no loan or property)

It’s hard to be a buyer right now, especially a first time home buyer.  There are often lots of offers written before one gets accepted.  If you can bring in a larger cash downpayment, it will improve your odds tremendously.  Cash remains king!

How common are “all cash” transactions for Silicon Valley real estate right now?  Throughout Santa Clara County, they were 25% of all sales, up from 20% in October 2011,  among houses, duet homes, condominiums and townhouses (class 1 and class 2, does not include mobile homes, 2-4plex or apartment buildings or raw land).   What’s trending? Lots, including more cash offers.

Some areas and some types of sales are more frequently all cash than others.  Here are a few quick stats for the last month (last 30 days from today – numbers from MLSListings, crunched by me – disclaimer on good intentions but no guarantee). Also, please note that this is for CLOSED SALES. As of this writing, we are seeing a huge uptick in multiple offers in all price ranges in many parts of the valley, and it seems that many are all cash or very large cash downpayments.

• Santa Clara County: 25% all cash
• San Jose (entire city): 27% all cash
• San Jose short sales: 27% all cash (down from 33% in Oct 2011)
• San Jose bank owned or REO sales: 39% all cash (38% Oct 2011)
• Short sales & REOs were 52% of all sales in San Jose in last 30 days (was 48% Oct 2011)
• Of SJ homes listed at $300,000 or less: 44% all cash (was 48% Oct 2011)
• Of SJ homes listed at/under $500,000: 33% were all cash (didn’t track in October 2011)
• Los Gatos: 9% all cash
• Saratoga: 8% all cash
• Almaden Valley area of San Jose: 10% all cash

Some of these sales will have no financing and the new owners will occupy the home.  Particularly in lower priced homes, though, these are investor buyers who will be renting out the property.  This is often the case with the lower price distressed properties in particular.  In higher priced homes, some new owners will put financing on the property after close of escrow.

With the crazy new demands that keep coming at us from banks and new requirements being imposed on appraisers, now more than ever, cash is king.  That doesn’t mean that the cash buyer will get a deep discount, but there will be a slight one in most cases and certainly preferential treatment that will create a great advantage in multiple offer situations.

Learn more about buying and selling Silicon Valley real estate with cash offers:

Cash offers: what do you need to know if buying “all cash”?

Q & A: Making an Offer

What’s My Silicon Valley Home Worth? Estimating the Probable Buyer’s Value  (financing impacts market value)

Median List price for San Jose 95129

Average Days on Market for 95129

Inventory of houses for sale in San Jose 95129

Many Silicon Valley home buyers rely on PMI, or Private Mortgage Insurance, to purchase a house or condo. But what is it and who needs it?

Private mortgage insurance is usually required with loans in which the buyer has less than a 20% down payment.

PMI does not protect you, the residential real estate consumer. It protects your lender in case you default!

FHA loans don’t have PMI but instead there is a “government guarantee” and for that you pay a premium – so not called PMI but it works similarly. The cost may range from 1 – 2.5%.

FHA or Conventional with PMI?

If you have less than 5% down, FHA will be your only option. But between 5 and 20% down, you may choose.

If you are trying to decide between FHA and conventional loan products with PMI, talk to you mortgage broker or banker to see which one really costs more in the long run, factoring in the total package of interest rates, premium rate etc. (FHA loans may come at a lower interest rate but with other added costs – so don’t just compare interest rates.)  The result may depend on the loan to value of the property, your credit score, and other factors. There don’t seem to be any “easy answers” as to which one is necessarily better.  This decision will require a little research!

If you expect to be bidding in multiple offers, this is another consideration too – it can be very hard for home buyers in the South Bay to win out in multiples if they are using FHA financing (as opposed to conventional).

Finally, like HOA dues, PMI is not something you can usually deduct from your income taxes (unless the PMI cost was simply rolled into your interest rate).  Please talk to your lender and tax professional for more information on PMI and the tax ramifications.

Related reading:

Is your lender pushing you into an FHA loan?

The challenge of being an FHA home buyer in a seller’s market

First Time Home Buyer with FHA Financing? Make Sure That Your Offer is Well Drafted!

For several years, we’ve seen declining residential real estate prices in much of Silicon Valley.  In many areas, though, prices are now either flat or bouncing up and down within a small range such that the probable buyer’s value or market value is very close to where it was a year or two ago.  Today’s San Jose Mercury News reports

“In a report to be released Monday, Clear Capital, a real estate valuations company in Truckee, predicts that prices will remain almost flat this year — compared with a 4.7 percent drop in 2011 — in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan area, including Contra Costa County. Silicon Valley should see a 1.6 percent increase in home prices, compared with a 2.5 percent drop last year, the company said.” (Bolding mine.)

A small, modest increase in pricing is usually healthy for home sales as it gives buyers the confidence needed to finally take the plunge. It’s immensely challenging for people to buy when they believe any product – cards, home appliances or houses – will be cheaper in a day, a week or a month.

Home sellers who have wanted to move up from a starter home to the one they hope to spend decades in have felt somewhat trapped by lack of equity in many cases.  In others, the idea of selling for less than at the peak was so upsetting that they felt terrible about moving ahead prior to a full recovery.  Most now understand that getting back to prices at the peak of the realty market in San Jose and Santa Clara County will take many years.

Some of them are tired of waiting and are electing to forget about the profit they could have had if they’d sold at the peak.  These folks have decided to make the jump now to get on with their lives, despite less equity than hoped for initially, while at least interest rates are so favorable.  (It should be added that the move-up home will now cost less also!)  This can be a very wise decision since buying a house, townhouse or condo is usually not one purchase but two: you’re buying the loan product also and the total cost of home ownership should factor in both the costs over the lifetime of the loan as well as the purchase price.

Have you been “on hold” and “waiting for prices to recover” before moving up?  It could be a long wait.  What else is on hold with it?  Better schools for your kids?  More room for visiting friends & family?  The view you’ve always wanted?

A client of mine said to me the other day, “it’s time for us to ‘bite the bullet’ and make the move“.  They know that they won’t get the price they originally wanted, but instead only what the market will bear.  They want to get on with their lives and quit waiting on the market – which is completely out of their (and my) control.

On the positive side, though, two years ago interest rates were hovering at 5% for a 30 year fixed, conforming rate loan.  Today they are at 3.91%.  The home they want to buy is 3-5% less than it would have been 2-3 years ago.  Prices are lower for selling, but the cost of buying their next place and also the cost of a loan is lower too. The math may work out very much in their favor after all.

Some Silicon Valley home buyers do not want to have their own buyers agent, but instead expect that they can find properties in the San Jose area that they want to see and request that the listing agent show it to them in a private appointment.  These same potential buyers may be surprised that the listing agent may refuse to show them the listing outside of a regularly scheduled open house – that is, if the seller is permitting open houses.

What’s going on?

In earlier articles we’ve discussed the need for a buyer broker agreement (verbal at the least, but possibly in writing) and why you, as a buyer, ought to have your own representation at the negotiation table.  (If you missed these, see the links under “related reading” below.)   Today I want to dispel the myth that the listing agent is required to open up and show condos or houses for sale to anyone who calls and requests seeing them and explain why that’s the case.

Showings of homes for sale are determined by the listing agreement or contract between the home seller, the listing agent or Realtor and the broker

The most important thing for buyers to understand is that the accessibility of the home for viewings depends upon the agreement, verbally or in writing, between the owner of the property and the agent/brokerage hired to market, negotiate, and sell the real estate.   It’s not an “on demand” situation where an interested buyer can insist on seeing the property as desired. Here are some of the expected scenarios and reasons why showings are somewhat restricted most of the time:

• Some properties are tenant occupied and it may be the case that you cannot even see the house or condo until after your offer is accepted. Most often it will be challenging to see homes with renters in them, but it is possible, usually, to see them prior to purchasing. (This is less true with duplexes, triplexes and four plexes. Apartment buildings are always sold “subject to inspection”.)
• Other times there may be a restriction such as 24 or 48 hours notice required for showings when homes are owner occupied.
• Most of the time, the seller has requested that any private showings, by appointment, involve ONLY pre-approved buyers. The sellers don’t want to waste their time with tire-kickers.  They want serious buyers.
• Most of the time, a seller will not want the listing agent to also represent the buyer and will expect serious home buyers to have a buyer’s agent.  If you are working with your own agent, that’s who should show the home to you.  If you have your own buyer agent, he or she can see what is involved in showing the property to you by looking at the agent version of the MLS (which includes showing instruction information and restrictions)
• Some sellers want open houses, some don’t.  For those selling a home during the holidays, often the for sale sign and lock box are removed and it becomes harder to get into these properties.
• Safety is a HUGE concern, both for home owners selling on their own and for realty professionals. Each year, Realtors and other real estate professionals are injured or killed in their line of work. If this surprises you, ask yourself how smart is it to meet total strangers at an empty house? It’s not.  If you want the listing agent to show you the house, expect to be asked a lot of questions (are you preapproved? if so, with who? how can we verify that?) and usually expect to meet the agent at the office first. Many Realtors will ask to photo copy your driver’s license prior to taking you to the home – this is for personal safety reasons. We realize that you will feel uncomfortable but please remember that real estate is risky for us and we absolutely must be cautious.

Related reading:

Do You Need a Buyer’s Agent? Or Should You Find a Home, Then Use the Listing Agent?

Silicon Valley Home Buyers: Should You Use a Buyer Broker Agreement?

Should you market your home for sale through the holidays?  It’s now mid November, and if your property has been listed for sale but not gotten an acceptable purchase offer, you may be thinking of taking your house or condo off the market until sometime in the new year. Is that a good idea?  Below, please find some considerations for you as you decide what to do. We’ll

Pricing: will the home sell for more now, or in the new year or spring?

No one can tell you whether prices will be better or worse in the first quarter of 2012 than they are now.  I just returned from the annual conference for the National Association of Realtors (of which I am a member), and quite honestly, I got conflicting information.  Some reports indicate that prices will be lower in the spring, others that they will be higher – or interest rates may be higher, which puts pressure on pricing since affordability is strained when that happens.   Pricing is local, though – so no matter what’s happening nationwide, it could be different in Silicon Valley, in Almaden, Cambrian, or Los Gatos, or in your subdivision or school area.  But bottom line: we really don’t know what pricing will do, we only know the probable buyer’s value – a range of likely sales prices – right now.

Being disturbed during the holidays

Many home owners really don’t want a lot of traffic coming through the home from Thanksgiving through the New Year due to visiting relatives, events planned such as parties at the home, the presence of gifts and concerns over theft, etc.  They may also be worried about rainy weather and carpets getting soiled.

At the same time, though, during the holidays many of us make our homes warm, bright and inviting, particularly if we decorate for Christmas, Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, etc.  Even the smells can do wonders: gingerbread cookies, Christmas trees, hot mulled wine…. With family and friends coming to visit, we tend to “deck the halls” and make our houses really feel like homes.  For many condos, townhouses and houses, during the holidays these homes really show at their best.

The potential to sell a home in December is actually a lot higher both because of the decor and ambiance, but also because so much of the competition is withdrawn from the market.  The odds shift much more in your favor if you keep your home on the market!

Market the home – but differently!

A great solution is to continue to market the home for sale, but to do it differently:

• remove the for sale sign & outside flyer box
• remove the lock box, showings by appointment only (by agent or seller)
• remove the seller’s phone number from the MLS – all appointments will be by appointment only
• flyer stand, disclosure binder and other marketing materials out of sight
• keep home listed for sale on MLSListings.com but more restricted hours

This sort of marketing will result in fewer showings but showings of more qualified, more motivated buyers.  It will be less intrusive to you and everyone in your household too.

Each year, Inman News sponsors a “people’s choice” voting for the most influential person in real estate.  Inman nominates 100 strong candidates but voters may also write in someone not listed.  This week, I was very deeply honored to have been included on such a prestigious list of real estate leaders nationwide, and I’d be thrilled if you would consider voting for me.

Where to vote:  follow this link and the fields for entering your desired winner’s name and info will be about 20% of the way down (midway through the article and just after a large ad) – deadline is Dec 1, 2011:

http://www.inman.com/news/2011/11/2/2011-peoples-choice-real-estates-most-influential

What is Inman looking for with this people’s choice voting?  I’ll quote a couple of passages and then comment.

“It’s time to vote for a leader who you believe has had the most substantial impact on the real estate industry in the past year. “  

“The Inman 100 list recognizes those whose voices and actions have the power to change the industry. Among them are individuals who embody strength, common sense, innovation, ingenuity, perseverance and progress. They include the industry’s brain trust and dealmakers, and those outside the industry who impact the business of buying and selling homes.”

So how did I, Mary Pope-Handy, a Silicon Valley Realtor with Sereno Group in Los Gatos and not a CEO of a big brokerage or large vendor, get named with realty’s best & brightest? It’s very humbling. But I think I have a few ideas as to why I’m getting the national spotlight. I’ll break it into a few bullet points, for those who may only know me from local blogging or home sales.

• In 2007, together with Frances Flynn Thorsen, I won the Project Blogger contest (sponsored by Inman and Active Rain) and have been a leader in blogging and web marketing circles ever since.
• In 2011 I was named “the best real estate agent in Silicon Valley” by the San Jose Mercury News. (Many of my clients now come to me from my blogs.)
• Speaking & training: In addition to residential real estate sales in the San Jose, Los Gatos, Saratoga and greater Silicon Valley area (Santa Clara County and nearby), I do speak at real estate meetings, trainings and classes on blogging, social media, real estate and related topics; to keep it short, I’ll post a link rather than list my involvement:
  Read more about my speaking & training on my Valley of Hearts Delight website.
• While blogging is the most important part of social media for me, I am engaged on Facebook, Twitter, Linkedn, YouTube and other venues too. Through these, I have a pretty good reach or impact on the web.  This is good for my realty business generally but also good for the owners of homes I list, as they get fantastic exposure when listed for sale with me.
• I don’t just have one website or one blog, but rather a network of them.  I may be a little crazy for embracing blogging to this extent (yes, it is time consuming), but I  hear time and again how much the info I put out there is helping people, both consumers and other real estate licensees alike (and not just folks buying & selling homes).  I’ve had agents at Sereno Group thank me for blogging, saying that it raises the bar in the industry, makes the company look good, and in one case, by association, apparently I helped a colleague to gain a listing (he told me that I make him look good because it shows the strength of our firm).  That’s a positive influence too.
• When I train, speak to or blog for a real estate agent audience, I try to provide helpful tips and encourage authenticity and transparency and to skip the games, the slick closing techniques or any smoke & mirrors. In other words, I really do try to raise the bar on our standard of practice.   I can be outspoken on what I believe is right or wrong with either the way the business is worked or, perhaps more of interest at the moment, the way social media is being employed to help agents to run their business. Sometimes I hold positions that aren’t popular but I hope that at a minimum, it helps agents to reconsider putting their values into action for the betterment of consumers as well as the real estate community.

Who, then, is a big real estate influencer?  I suspect that everyone on this highly esteemed list really is one.  Heads of brokerages directly impact how those companies work, their standards and requirements, how they hire and train and so on.  Real estate coaches (and there were several of them on this collection of super stars) directly impact their clients – agents and brokers – and help them to improve the way they work, suggest how those individuals can best use their time, etc.  I could go through the list and indicate why each category matters.

Only about a dozen of us on the list are simply Realtors, in the trenches, selling and networking and changing to meet the changing demands of the industry.   My hat is off to each person named, whether a real estate agent, vendor, CEO, manager coach or any other category.  And there are many other great people who weren’t there in writing who also deserve kudos as well.  I think it’s fair to say that everyone listed this year or in recent years past has been a highly influential force in the real estate landscape today.  We can’t vote for them all.  I do hope that you will vote for me!

How is the Williams Elementary School area of San Jose’s Almaden Valley 95120 doing in terms of the real estate market? Today we’ll look at the Williams area as compared to Almaden as a whole to see. First, the basic realty trends and stats for this nice section of Silicon Valley side by side for this year only (I pulled and crunched all of this data from MLSListings.com myself tonight, “deemed reliable but not guaranteed”):

1. Comparison of the average price per square foot for all of Almaden (including the Williams area) with just the Williams area of 95120:

While there is some fluctuation from one status to the next, at the end of the day there’s one number that matters the most, and that’s what actually sold and closed.  In the Williams area, homes have sold at an average of $418 per square foot while in Almaden generally (including this area), the price is $399 per square foot – about 5% less. This is tremendously important to understand if you are trying to purchase a home in the Williams area – homes there do, in fact, sell for more than in most parts (perhaps all parts) of the Almaden Valley.

Next, the stats for just the Williams area followed by the stats for all of 95120.

2. Real estate market statistics for Williams area of Almaden year to date by status:

3. Real estate in Almaden (San Jose 95120) as a whole (including Williams neighborhood):

4. Some graphs on the market in these two areas of San Jose 95120:

All Almaden - average sales price per month

And next, just the Williams area within 95120:

Average sales price per month in Williams School area of Almaden

Days to sell (days on market prior to going under contract) in Almaden…

Almaden (all) days to sell over time

Same data but just for the Williams Elementary School neighborhood in San Jose:

Wiiliams area of Almaden: days to sell over time

Supply and demand -  San Jose 95120 homes for sale and homes sold each month:

All Almaden homes for sale vs sold

Next, supply and demand in just the Williams area (most months, the ratios are tighter in Williams):

Williams neighborhood - homes for sale vs sold (supply demand)

New listings – first, all of Almaden (buyers will be interested in seeing the price spread):

Almaden listings by price range each month

Wms area price spread – it’s a smaller neighborhood with fewer inexpensive, and more expensive, properties:

Listings by price range in Williams area of Almaden Valley (San Jose 95120)

Months of inventory for San Jose 95120 (Almaden Valley or Almaden area) – six months is considered “balanced”, less a sellers market and more a buyers market.  It’s been pretty good in this corner of Silicon Valley, as you can see, except for the worst of the market in 2008-09 especially.

Months of inventory for all of San Jose 95120

Next, same info but just in the Williams subset of the Almaden market:

Months of inventory in Williams area

Note that the market in the Williams area has been a little harder hit than Almaden as a whole for the months of inventory. Why is that? My hunch is that it’s a couple of things: first and foremost, these homes are more expensive. The typical 4 bed, 2 bath home is about $1 million in Almaden generally but about $1,150,000 in the areas with the best schools, including Williams and Graystone.  The more expensive homes have been challenged by the financing regulations – these are not FHA homes and require a lot of cash down. Many would be move up buyers are stuck due to lack of equity.  A secondary reason may be the further commute.  Many buyers are more frugal now that gas is hovering near $4 a gallon.  Whatever the cause, these premier homes are not selling as well as many of their owners would like to expect.

List price to sales price ratio Almaden

And finally the same list to sales price ratio just in Williams:

Sale to List Price Ratio in Williams area of Almaden

I hope you’ve found this information and analysis helpful.  Whether you’re buying or selling, it’s very helpful to know the local market.  These types of posts do take a lot of time to produce, so I don’t do them so extensively so often, but I can do this type of thing for my clients. If you are looking for a Realtor who’s committed to giving you top grade information so that you can be best informed, please call or email me. I’d love to have the chance to chat with you and see if we might be able to work together on your next purchase or sale in Almaden or anywhere in Santa Clara County.

mary (at) popehandy (dot) com

Related reading:

Schools, API Scores & Maps of School Boundaries in San Jose’s Almaden Valley

The RE Report for Almaden Valley (updated monthly, stats also quarterly and annually going back 10+ years)

What should you look for when buying a luxury home in Silicon Valley? Whether it’s a move-up purchase or a first home, there are a few tips which will be helpful for you to know going into it that will make the whole home buying experience smoother and easier.  We’ll hit on 3 areas: first geography & construction, second hyper local factors that impact market value, and finally qualities or features of the property or house itself.

It’s hard to assign an exact price tag on what constitutes an estate or luxury property, but in and near Silicon Valley, in most regions it’s the $2,000,000 and up price point (it will be less in Morgan Hill, Coyote and Gilroy – and likely more in Hillsborough).

1. Geography and Bay Area Construction: it’s different here!

The first and most important thing to understand is that real estate and housing construction vary from one region of the country (or the world) to the next.  This is true for all types of homes, actually, but perhaps more obvious in the priciest homes. Luxury real estate in Silicon Valley is a little different from similarly expensive homes in other parts of the country due to our climate, soil conditions, and natural hazards, such as earthquakes. What seems mandatory for a high end home (and might be ideal to have elsewhere) could be a problem here, so it’s helpful to literally understand the lay of the land before you get too far along the home buying path. A couple of quick examples:

• A fabulous home in Boston or anywhere in New England may be built of brick.
• Here, a brick house is seldom seen because of earthquakes – we need our houses to move and bricks are not usually too good at that!

I mention these two upfront because well intentioned friends and relatives may want to stress the importance of this or that in a property – and it may simply not apply here. (Please see article: Qualify The Advice You’ll Accept When Buying or Selling a Home in Silicon Valley)  If you are non-native to the San Francisco Bay Area, you may have assumptions about construction or architecture that may not work here. Please just be aware of that possibility.

2. Understand the importance of hyper local factors on the market value of a property

Schools can be a main driver for home values in the luxury market as all other segments.  Home buyers may not know that the town or city boundaries are usually irrelevant to school district boundaries. Here are a few examples:

• In Saratoga  there are 3 high school districts and 4 elementary school districts.  Before buying anywhere in Saratoga, then, you’ll want to know which district is which and where you’re buying.  If you want to utilize private schools, you may be delighted to find that you can buy more house for your money in one area of this lovely city than another.  Or you may want one school area over another for any number of reasons.
• In Los Gatos there are 2 high school districts and 3 elementary school districts.
• In the Almaden Valley area of San Jose, there are 3 high school districts and 3 elementary school districts

Often the lesser public school districts will have a lower lid on pricing than the very top districts or schools, so it’s important, when analyzing the pricing of an estate home, to factor in the weight of the school.

Geography can be surprisingly important.  Sometimes being on one side or the other of a major road or landmark can swing value 3% – even if it’s the same city, same zip code, same schools!  I see this in Los Gatos along both Blossom Hill Road and again at Los Gatos-Almaden Road: people prefer to be closer to the foothills and prices jump noticeably just for being on one side of these roads than the other.

Walkability is key for many Silicon Valley home buyers, though perhaps less so for some luxury buyers since the larger parcels that often come with them preclude much walkability.  Not always, though – in Palo Alto, Los Altos, Saratoga, Los Gatos and other Bay Area spots like Burlingame or San Mateo, some of the premier homes are not on acre lots but are “in town”.

3. What to look for in the estate property or high end home itself

At this point it’s a little trickier as each home buyer may have different priorities, likes/dislikes and tastes – so these are general guidelines only.

1.  Buy with selling in mind – you may have this property for 2 years, for 20 or more, but if you purchase an expensive home that is just too bizarre for the general consumption, you may be stuck with it when you are ready to sell it.
2. Location, location, location is so overstated that it’s nearly effete, but it bears repeating anyway.  Do you want to buy a $3 million house in a $1 million neighborhood? No, you probably don’t because it will really kill your resale value later.   So too if you buy raw land or a “dozer” – don’t overbuild for the neighborhood.  Try to be mid-range but don’t find yourself in the top 25% for home values in your area.  (NB: in some areas, like Menlo Park, neighborhoods are fairly irregular or non-conforming and you find little houses that need work next to McMansions.  It may not be possible to find conforming neighborhoods.  If you love the area anyway – go for it – but realize the risks.)
3. Quality construction and laoyout or floorplan matter.  Many home buyers care about Feng Shui and the orientation of the home and its elements.  But beyond that there are certain things that most buyers want or don’t want, and if your property violates these “rules” it can be harder to sell later.  Here are a few:
• It’s considered poor to be able to see a toilet from the front door
• The layout is less desirable  to have to go through a room to get to another room or to part of the house (such as going through the family room to get to the bedrooms)
• It is better to have a formal entry than to come straight into a living room, especially in a high end home
• The master bedroom should have its own private en-suite bath (this might seem obvious but you’d be surprised how many expensive houses have 2 bathrooms but neither dedicated to the master bedroom)
• Best to have the master bedroom face the back  yard and not the street
• Better to have more land in back than in the front yard
• If you like to entertain, look for a large kitchen that includes 2 dishwashers, at least 2 regular ovens plus a microwave, a vegetable sink as well as the regular ones, and if possible, also a “butler’s pantry” between the kitchen and formal dining room.
• If the house has 2 stories, look for at least one bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor (and possibly a half bath as well so the guest bath is private)
• The nicest luxury homes may have 2 laundry areas: one on the first floor and one on the main floor, if it’s a 2 story home.
• Most home buyers looking at properties over $1.5 million want to find the master bathroom equipped with a large soaking tub, separate shower, and dual vanities. Jetted tubs are not as popular as a few years back due to concerns over bacteria lingering in the plumbing, so more often the tubs are “soaking” and not “jacuzzi” types.
• The master suite often includes a small wet bar or coffee bar as well as a fireplace, walk in closet(s) and private deck or balcony.  In recent years these rooms have gotten bigger (and sillier – how much time do people spend there?) – a trend I believe will change over time.
• Luxury homes or estates usually have a minimum of a 3 car garage. (I’ve seen properties with as many as 10.)
• For the ultra luxury estates, usually there are guest or servant quarters (and likewise, in 2 story homes, a back staircase too).
• Pools tend to be found among high end homes, but sometimes also tennis courts, game rooms, indoor bowling alleys or other sports outlets (indoor golf driving or rifle shooting ranges too).
• Other rooms: libraries, offices, media rooms, hobby rooms may be included. Sometimes the home office or library may have a full bath nearby – a hint that it can double as a guest room.
• Green building: a growing trend is toward making high end homes eco-friendly or green.  This may include the types of materials used in construction (a percentage recycled or of easily renewable sources), heating & cooling systems that can close off or turn on various parts of the house so it doesn’t all need to be heated or cooled, high levels of insulation to make the home “tight” and not have energy losses. Possibly solar panels to warm the water in the home or pool.
• Years ago there was a lot of focus on wiring for computers in estate properties.  This is still the case but with the advent of wireless for everything, it’s not so critical. However, wiring for TV or movie viewing as well as musical entertainment throughout the home is very common with luxury properties – many owners want to be able to begin watching in one room and seamlessly move to another if so desired.
• In the luxury market it is very common to find security systems which include cameras at various locations.  In the ultra high end houses, there may be “safe rooms” too.

At the end of the day, much of what is included should reflect your values and the way you want to live.  Some luxury homes will have a private bath for every bedroom – but I’ve had clients say “why do I want that? I don’t want to spoil my kids or have more bathrooms to be cleaned”. How do you want to live?

There’s a balancing act between buying the home you want to enjoy and either overspending on a house or area or making a poor choice on an expensive ticket item that could be a great asset instead. It will help a lot to get good, local guidance from a trusted resource who’s got your back.  Looking for that helpful real estate adviser? Give me a call or email me and we can chat at my office, yours, a coffee shop, park, or anywhere convenient.

As an aside…this is the 500th article on this site, the Valley Of Hearts Delight blog or www.SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com. ….  Thank you for reading!

 For more reading:

Cracked Foundations, Adobe Clay Soils and Water in Silicon Valley

What To Consider When Buying a Hillside Home in Silicon Valley

Where are Santa Clara County’s Earthquake Faults and Flood Plains?

The Silicon Valley Luxury Home Market (view a list of homes for sale, read more on criteria for location, amenities etc.)