The Almaden Valley real estate market is complex – “how it is” very much depends on the price point, school district (there are several in Almaden) and neighborhood.  The broad overview and the micro-view of this San Jose area are both helpful to buyers and sellers. Today we’ll do a little of each. (Graphs courtesy of two subscriptions I have: one is the REReport and the other is Altos Research. Both used by permission.)

First let’s see how Almaden Valley homes for sale fared in recent months, in 2008 and in recent years. Then we’ll have a look at the current situation. Here are a couple of graphs that make clear the condo market in this part of Silicon Valley:

Inventory has been rising in recent months, and sales have been declining fairly steadily in recent years.  If you have friends who sell homes or home loans and work the Almaden or Silicon Valley market, you already know that things have been worsening for quite awhile.

Now let’s look at the single family home market; first is the the days of inventory over the last 18 months or so and then the number of sales in Almaden over the last few years.

The patterns among single family homes in Almaden are even more clear in terms of the numbers of sales: it’s a straight decline.  Time on the market has fluctuated a little but the overall movement has been for longer time to sell a home.

So that’s a look back in time, using sold data.

Now let’s have a look at “real time” or more current market information using the currently available homes for sale (and list prices).

How long does it take to sell a home in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? Below please find graphs indicating the average “days on market” for the 95120 zip code, which is the same as the boundaries of the Almaden Valley area of San Jose.  The data is divided by price quartile, since sometimes the market is different from one price point to the next.

First, a look at condos in San Jose, 95120:

Next, the graph for single family homes in San Jose 95120:

While there’s some variation, the patterns are fairly consistent: the days on market were lowest last summer but rose again and are generally higher than they’ve been in recent history.  Obviously, the longer it takes to sell a home, the worse it is for sellers and the better it is for buyers.

How about levels of inventory? First let’s view the condos and then the single family homes.

Next, we’ll see about the inventory of single family homes in the Almaden district of San Jose:

Surprisingly, the inventory levels are almost identical across both housing types and price points. This is often not the case!

Finally, the issue that is most important to home buyers and home sellers in Almaden Valley, in Silicon Valley or virtually anywhere: pricing. How are home values holding up? How is affordability?

Among Almaden Valley condos, real estate median list prices are falling, but not at the same rate or level across all price points. The lowest priced homes appear to have had the “steadiest” pricing, and the second highest price point appears to have had the most volatility.

Finally, we’ll look at the single family homes’ median list prices by quartile in Almaden.

Here we see that the lower priced homes, the more affordable ones, are not coming down in list price nearly as much as in the high end prices. Relative to the rest of Santa Clara County, Almaden home values are holding up pretty well.  While some areas see a change of 35% in the median price, here we see that it’s often within 10%.   This is also true in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cupertino, Los Altos, Palo Alto, and anywhere in which the incomes are higher than normal and schools are much better than average.

It is reinforced that the old adage about the importance of location is not just something for days gone by, but is equally true today.

In sum, the bargain prices are not going to be found in Almaden as they are in some parts of the Santa Clara Valley. But at the same time, it appears that these homes, whether houses, townhomes or condos, will “hold their value” better than normal too. 

This is, of course, an overview. Your neighborhood, or the one in which you wish to buy, may be different.  The Graystone area is different than Oak Canyon, for instance – they have different school districts, different commutes, etc. For information on a particular area, please contact me today for a confidential consulation.

How is the residential real estate market doing in the Cambrian Park area of San Jose, CA?  We’ll have a look at the 95124 zip code area and the 95118 zip code area of San Jose, which together comprise at least 95% of the Cambrian Park real estate area of Silicon Valley. (A small sliver belongs to the predominently Campbell area of 95008.) The following charts, from Altos Research, represent list prices (not sold prices).

Although the condos in 95124 (green line) have not fared too badly in the last year, the vast majority of Cambrian Park real estate seems to be hurting. The median list price on these homes has been slipping fairly steadily over the last year – often at least 10% of value. This is the broad overview. Next we will view things on more of a micro level.

Next, we’ll view Cambrian in smaller segments, broken down by both zip code and quartile. First, let’s take a look at the 95124 zip code, starting with the single family home real estate market:

Interestingly, most of the houses in Cambrian had a similar downward trend (the lowest price points exhibiting the strongest tendency that way), but the highest price houses seem to be at about the same level as they were a year ago, if not priced a tad higher.  This chart suggests that the lowest priced homes have been hardest hit by the current economic crisis.

And next, condos in the same part of San Jose:

Among 95124 condos, the highest and lowest priced homes had the roughest time, whereas the two middle quartiles are almost on par with where they were a year ago.

And for the smaller part of Cambrian Park, the 95118 area, the same criteria:

The 95118 zip code of San Jose, which is about 1/3 of the Cambrian Park district, mostly has the San Jose Unified School District, which is not considered quite as desireable as Cambrian and Union Schools. In this area, prices have slipped dramatically among single family homes.

And condominiums and townhomes in 95118:

It is interesting to see that among the condominium and townhouse market for the 951118 part of San Jose, the patterns among the four quartiles are extremely simiar overall for the major dip in the market. The highest priced condos, though, appear more impervious to the market pressures, and the lowest priced homes have taken the worst hit.

Overall, Cambrian is a good mirror for the rest of the San Jose real estate market and even the Silicon Valley real estate market. Here, as in the rest of Santa Clara County, the higher priced homes have not been so badly hit on pricing. Schools appear to be a huge impact on whether a property will better retain its value or not.

This is all very broad information. For more specific info relating to your particular needs, please call or email me today!