Months of Inventory or Absorption Rate for Cupertino Real Estate

Cupertino is a red hot sellers’ market, but primarily or the most in the lower price ranges.  The higher the price of the home goes, generally speaking, the cooler the market gets.  Part of this is because Cupertino is not considered a luxury market.  Luxury homes are far more likely to be found in Los Altos and Saratoga than in Cupertino. Even so, there are areas, primarily in the foothills and west of Foothill Blvd., where high end homes can be found.

Yesterday afternoon I ran the “months of inventory” by price point in the city of Cupertino.  The absorption rate, or MOI, will tell us how long it would take for the current inventory to be totally absorbed by the market of buyers if no other homes came on the market.  The shorter the MOI is, the hotter the market is.  (Houses and duet homes only, not condos or town houses.)Have a look:

Houses up to $500,000: n/a (there aren’t any)
$500,000 to $999,999:    .2 Month of Inventory or MOI (2/10 of a month)
$1 million to $1,499,999: . 61 MOI
$1,500,000 to $1,999,999:   2.75 MOI
$2 million to $2,499,999:  infinite (3 homes for sale, none closed in last 30 days)
$2.5 million to $2,999,999: 1 MOI
$3 million and up:  n/a

It’s a little bit of a fluke that the 2.5—3 million group was “1”. There was one sale and it was just barely over the line – it sold for $2,505,000.  Had it slipped just a little bit, the group prior would have had 3 months of inventory (1 closing for 3 listings currently active). The trend is pretty clear: the higher the price, the longer homes take to be absorbed into the market.  We can fairly think of this segment as 3 months of inventory, which isn’t bad at all but is not “red hot”.

Hottest of the hot are houses listed for sale at under $1,000,000 in the city of Cupertino – they are flying off the market at .2 months of inventory, or about 1 week!  It cools as prices rise.

Cupertino Median List Prices Compared to Neighboring Saratoga, Sunnyvale and Los Altos

We know that the median sales price in Cupertino has been climbing steadily since March 1st (reflecting sales beginning in early February). How does it compare to nearby areas?

Los Altos is selling for the most of these 4 areas, but list prices are now falling. Saratoga was dippping but now rising again. Sunnyvale has been somewhat flat recently but improving. But Cupertino’s prices are making the steepest improvement. Perhaps these low prices are the drivers for the crazy hot market activity.

Cupertino median list price of houses by price quartile

Focusing just on Cupertino, let’s see how the information looks if we break it down into the pricing tier. Often the entry level houses are a very different “market” than the luxury homes segment.

The last few months have had some ups and downs in pricing, but most segments of the Cupertino real estate market have seen an uptick since early Feb (when the market seemed to turn on a dime for the west valley communities with the best schools).  The luxury market in Cupertino has been a little slower to see improvement but it is registering there now, too.

What if we look back more than a year? Combining the quartiles, the trends look pretty volatile:

What’s happening with the most expensive homes for sale in Cupertino?  They have had a rough time of it – but currently there’s an uptick in the market at this price point. Here’s the same data just for the top quartile, the most expensive properties (luxury homes segment):

For the 2nd top tier (upper middle):

3rd level or lower middle:

And most affordable Cupertino houses or lowest quartile:

Cupertino Days on Market by Price Quartile: What’s Selling Fastest

Not surprisingly, the luxury market has had a harder time selling than entry level houses in Cupertino. This is true for most of the West Valley areas of Santa Clara County. Here’s a look at the days on market (DOM) for Cupertino by price point over the last year.

Remember, all real estate is local. For information on your exact area or price point, please contact me. I work with my clients to pinpoint the pricing.

What drives the Cupertino real estate market?

The residential real estate market in Cupertino, California, is driven in large part by the extremely high quality of its local public schools.  Many in Silicon Valley would state that for San Jose area home buyers, Cupertino offers the best “bang for the buck” when one lines up the cost of purchasing a home to the schools’ API scores. (Conversely, some residents are concerned that the very top schools – including but not limited to Cupertino – are so focused on academics that there may be too much pressure on kids and may lack balance for them.)

Other drivers are, of course, the local economy (such as the initial public offerings happening with some of the Silicon Valley tech giants), the availability of more affordable financing, and how the realty market in general is performing for any particular price point or particular school area. (Even within Cupertino, some schools are much more in demand than others.)  Comments in this article refer generally to this city of about 50,000 residents – real estate is local, though, so for precise information in any given area or tier of the market, please contact me!

Houses for sale in Cupertino California

Please browse houses for sale in Cupertino, listed from the lowest prices up to the highest.

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 28. See more city of Cupertino real estate.
(all data current as of 5/25/2012)

1. $759,000 : 10650 Minette Dr, Cupertino
   
   3 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 1,048 sq ft

   Lot size: 5,600 sqft
   
2. $899,000 : 10326 Byrne Av, Cupertino
   
   2 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 840 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,375 sqft
   
3. $939,888 : 20237 Bollinger Rd, Cupertino
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,688 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,500 sqft
   
4. $949,900 : 20345 Via Volante, Cupertino
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,167 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,613 sqft
   
5. $990,000 : 10042 Byrne Av, Cupertino
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,616 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,356 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?

Today we’ll look at the monthly sales numbers for Saratoga, CA 95070 and also view live charts reflecting homes listed for sale on the MLS. Both houses and condos/townhomes will be considered as will varying price quartiles via the live charts.

Monthly Real Estate Update for Saratoga – prices of houses rising:

As with much of the “west valley”, the Saratoga, CA real estate market is a seller’s market, but it does not appear quite so overheated as neighboring – and far more affordable – Cupertino right now. Unlike many other areas, though, inventory is a little looser and is up month over month (which is seasonally expected) and year over year (not a seasonal issue, of course). 

Here are the real estate sales statistics for closed sales in March 2012 among houses in the 95070 zip code (click on link to read the full Saratoga Real Estate Report for houses):

And February

The median sales price, which is the number indicating that half of the homes sold for more and half less than this number, has risen almost 8% from a year ago.  This implies that more expensive homes are selling – and possibly that home values are rising too. The average is also up about the same amount year over year.

Next, please find the basic statistics for closed sales in February 2012 among townhouses & condominiums in the 95070 zip code (see the Saratoga Real Estate Report for condos & townhomes):

And February

To really understand the condo and townhouse market it’s better to see actual sales and compare them quarter by quarter, using similar units.  If you are interested in buying or selling a condo or townhouse in Saratoga, don’t go it alone or rely on online stats – give me a call and we will crunch the numbers specifically for your home and pinpoint the pricing.

Median List Prices of Saratoga Homes for Sale

First, a graph displaying the overview of the median list prices for condominiums and single family homes in Saratoga – all price quartiles combined:

In general, the seller’s market is showing itself for houses in the fact that list prices are rising.  Not so with condo and townhouse pricing. That’s a much cooler market.

Next, the median list prices for single family homes with a breakdown by price quartile. (Please note that the info would be even more precise if broken down by school district, but this particular program doesn’t yet filter by schools.)

In most price points, the list prices are now rising slightly, but most of all in entry level homes. In the last few months we’ve seen the high end home sales start to pick up in Saratoga, with a good run up in late 2010 before sliding earlier.  Starting to improve now, though.

And now, list price of condos by price quartiles.

Interestingly, the condo market is not enjoying at all the decent seller’s market seen among houses in this city.  Every price point appears to be suffering, but the high end most of all.

Inventory of both houses & condos in Saratoga

It’s seasonally typical to have more inventory in summer than other times of the year. Going back a few more years (see below), please note where the peaks are found – always sometime in summer. (Single family homes only.)

It’s less clear, but still visible, with condominiums and townhouses in Saratoga:

Average Days on Market for Saratoga Homes for Sale

Houses by quartile is not much different – DOM was rising across all price points and has been since August until spring, when the bottom and two quartiles (blue and green) reversed the trend. These are the “hotter”or improving segments of the market right now.

It is strangely disjointed in the Saratoga Condo market, though. I can’t explain why this had been so “all over the board” based on just this data. But since August, all four groups appear to be following the same general trend.

My suspicion is that the homes with the better schools are faring the best, but that’s just a hunch based on how well homes usually sell – it’s not provable with this info at hand.

If you’re interested in buying or selling a Saratoga home, please contact me. I’ll be happy to meet with you for a no obligation initial consultation.

Saratoga Real Estate Listings – Saratoga Homes for Sale – Condos, Townhouses & Houses for Sale in Saratoga

If you’d like to browse Saratoga homes for sale, I invite you to have a look here! Below please find all properties currently listed as available on our local MLS.  Please be advised that there are a number of different property types and school districts listed here.  For more precise information on houses, condos or town houses on the market, please contact me via email or complete a form at SiliconValleyHomeHunt.com or on my popehandy.com website.  Either way it will come to me and I will personally set up your search for a Saratoga property. (If you are moving to the South Bay area from far away, please also see my Silicon Valley relocation website for helpful tips.)

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 90. See more city of Saratoga real estate.
(all data current as of 5/25/2012)

1. $2,350,000 : 19632 Glen Una Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 2,350 sq ft

   Lot size: 43,560 sqft
   
2. $1,200,000 : 18564 Paseo Tierra, Saratoga
   
   3 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,946 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,744 sqft
   
3. $2,498,000 : 18599 Avon Ln, Saratoga
   
   5 beds, 4 full baths

   Home size: 3,992 sq ft

   Lot size: 42,253 sqft
   
4. $1,198,000 : 20376 Knollwood Dr, Saratoga
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,803 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,680 sqft
   
5. $1,550,000 : 13663 Howen Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,128 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,370 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Interested in buying or selling a home in Saratoga?  I grew up there (and in Santa Clara), graduated from Saratoga High before heading off to college, and have been selling homes in Saratoga and nearby parts of Santa Clara County & Silicon Valley since 1993.  I understand the impact of Saratoga’s school districts on home buying decisions, the importance of various locations to market value, and resale concerns that can improve or detract from your return on investment.

Read more about my background on the Valley of Hearts Delight website (sister site to this blog) and learn why my past clients and other readers of the San Jose Mercury News named me “best real estate agent in Silicon Valley” in 2011. There you’ll also see my accomplishments/honors/awards, info on sales experience, and more. 

Or just take a moment to phone me at 408 204-7673, or email me at mary (at) popehandy (dot) com.  If you prefer, you can simply fill out a form online instead.

How’s the real estate market in the Willow Glen area of San Jose?  Like the greater Silicon Valley region, Willow Glen is comprised of many smaller micro-markets.  It will be different in north Willow Glen, Palm Haven or in a walk-to-town area than it will be in the Dry Creek area or St. Francis Woods neighborhood – let alone differences for school districts, price point, sale type (regular versus short sale or bank owned), zip code and home type!  It’s a patchwork of all these smaller markets, in other words.  What’s happening in one segment might be very different than in another.

Today’s post will be the broad view of Willow Glen and comments may not apply to your specific property – for info on your neighborhood, call or email me!

Disclaimers aside, overall it is a seller’s market in Willow Glen right now, but it’s cooler than other areas with better schools such as Almaden, Cambrian and Cupertino and not everything is selling (and certainly not getting the prices that many sellers want).  The best homes (best condition, pricing, marketing and regular sale) are selling in 1-3 weeks.

Below are the basic numbers, stats and trends from the closed sales of houses in March

and in February:

And next, of Willow Glen condos, where it’s been a cold buyer’s market but recently heated up:

Next, February…

What about home prices in Willow Glen?

Below please find the Altos Charts (to which I have a subscription). NB Altos uses LIST prices, not solds (also they go by zips or cities, so don’t cover Willow Glen per se with it’s partial entry into the 95124 zip).

1 – Houses in the 95125 zip code – history, all prices combined.

2 – Houses in the San Jose, 95125 zip code, by price quartile over last 180 days

3 – Condominiums and townhouses in Willow Glen, San Jose 95125 – all quartiles combined over the last few years for median list price:

4 – Condo and townhomes, median list price, by quartile, last 180 days only:

It is interesting to see the rise in list prices here as opposed to the overall DROP in sales prices we saw on the RE Report. Of course this could be a function of all kinds of things, including the impact of distressed sales.

All kinds of things can impact the probable buyer’s market for a particular house or home, but especially distressed sales nearby. For information on what the market is doing in your exact neighborhood, please call or email me today.

Willow Glen homes for sale

Browse residential properties – houses, duet homes, condos and townhomes in Willow Glen which are listed for sale on the MLS by type below.

1. Listings of houses for sale in Willow Glen, San Jose 95125

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 60. See more 95125 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 5/25/2012)

1. $2,595,000 : 1407 Willow St, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 4,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 20,130 sqft
   
2. $329,000 : 788 Delmas Av, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,218 sq ft

   Lot size: 5,382 sqft
   
3. $779,000 : 2499 Booksin Av, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,523 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,098 sqft
   
4. $779,000 : 823 Romani Ct, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,429 sq ft

   Lot size: 3,600 sqft
   
5. $1,925,000 : 1674 Mulberry Ln, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 2,862 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,070 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 8. See more 95125 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 5/25/2012)

1. $399,000 : 2273 Golden Crest, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 1,620 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,306 sqft
   
2. $659,000 : 1705 Cherryhills Ln, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,000 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,128 sqft
   
3. $669,900 : 1578 Whiterock Ci, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,010 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,225 sqft
   
4. $519,900 : 676 Willow St, San Jose
   
   2 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,376 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,306 sqft
   
5. $773,500 : 1624 Sparkling Wy, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,954 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,128 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

3. Listings of condominiums (condos) for sale in Willow Glen, San Jose 95125

Showing properties 1 - 1 of 1. See more 95125 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 5/25/2012)

1. $345,000 : 2132 Sunstruck Ct, San Jose
   
   2 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,144 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,566 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Median List price for San Jose 95129

Average Days on Market for 95129

Inventory of houses for sale in San Jose 95129

The annual market report is out at popehandy.REReport.com and we can now learn how 2011 compared to 2010.  The median sales price for houses in Santa Clara County was off 5.3% overall.  But from one part of the valley to the next it varied wildly with 6 cities or areas finding themselves in positive territory while others were off by double digits.

In the image to the left, I’ve put into bold the cities where the median sales price of houses which sold and closed escrow in 2011 were ahead of 2010′s pricing.

What is it that makes Gilroy, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Mountain View and Palo Alto “in the black”?

Most of these cities/towns are upscale, west valley communities.  But so are Saratoga, Cupertino, and Monte Sereno.

Gilroy was especially hard-hit with the housing downturn so perhaps in that case, it’s just coming back into more of a balance. (Then again, so was Morgan Hill and it’s still off by 12%.)

The LinkedIn IPO and others in the Palo Alto area drove prices up for some parts of the housing market nearby and it’s likely that this explains the positive growth for Palo Alto, Mountain View, and Los Altos Hills.  That said, it would seem that Los Altos, and perhaps even Sunnyvale would have seen stronger numbers on the same account.  Perhaps school scores are the key driver here.

Los Gatos, Saratoga and Monte Sereno often behave somewhat similarly as they are adjacent to one another and often attract similar home buyers who want good schools, a nice downtown area nearby and scenic beauty with the hills.  The annual numbers show Monte Sereno down 6.7%, Saratoga down 2% but Los Gatos up 6.4%.  With Monte Sereno, there are very few sales each month and each year (only about 4,000 residents), so there can be a wider swing without it necessarily being accurate. Saratoga and Los Gatos each have about 30,000 people who call these areas home, though, so the data is much more helpful.  Saratoga and Los Gatos both have multiple school districts, views, homes with better proximity to “downtown” and more variables – I think we’d have to dig a lot deeper to learn why these two neighboring markets are so diverse.  We might also have to look at multiple years of data to see if Saratoga spiked while LG slumped to explain the difference.

Coming in at last place: the Santa Cruz Mountains or Los Gatos Mountains area (zip code 95033), where the median list price of houses sold slipped 17% from the year before.  This beautifully scenic region covers a lot of territory and several quite different neighborhoods, some more convenient and others more remote.  It often takes much longer to sell a home in the mountains than on the valley floor but it can be a great “bang for your buck” for great schools, clean area, less crowding, etc.  The remoteness of some homes, the increased rain and other challenges generally make this part of the valley a more challenging real estate market most of the time, and in a down market that’s even more true.

Palo Alto, Mountain View and Los Altos each have regions which can be tracked in addition to the cities as a whole. If you’d like to see these numbers, please visit http://popehandy.rereport.com and then click on Yearly, then select the city, then the neighborhood and you can see how Baron Park or other areas are faring in particular (also for their monthly or quartly reports).

Areas within San Jose, like PA, MV and LA, can be tracked. Since I am very active in several of them (Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park, Willow Glen, Blossom Valley and others on the west side), I want to share those next.

The median sales price of houses which sold & closed in 2011 in the City of San Jose was down 5.9%, lower than the county as a whole.  Most of San Jose was worse off than the prior year – all except Alviso!

Alviso, which was a separate town until not so long ago, sold with a double digit increase in the median sales price – a whopping 10.6% higher than in 2010.  Affordability and investor activity are most likely the cause – more demand and less inventory than the year before. (I suspect either fewer distressed properties or that they were gobbled up quickly. Knowing would require more research.)

Downtown or central San Jose took a beating with the median sales price down 9.6%.  Why did it fall from grace?  Not everything in this area is affordable – consider that it includes Naglee Park, The Rosegarden, and a few other tony areas. I suspect it’s the number of foreclosures (REOs) and short sales but I don’t have that information at hand.  It would require a much closer look that our brief survey here to uncover what’s happening.  (We know that there are many unsold, new condos in downtown San Jose but those should not be impacting the sales of single family homes.)

In future articles or posts I hope to look at a few of these areas more carefully to see what is causing the great diversity between the areas showing improvement over 2010 such as Alviso, Palo Alto, Gilroy, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos and Mountain View versus those which are really hurting: downtown San Jose, the Los Gatos Mountains, Evergreen, Morgan Hill, Milpitas.  Very likely it’s a combination of the distressed market activity in some areas, school scores, the pricing tier (i.e., homes between 1 and 2 million near Palo Alto) and more factors.  With real estate, it’s always local – and that’s just the starting point.

Multiple offers have returned to many segments of the Silicon Valley real estate market.  We are hearing about them in Palo Alto, Cupertino, Mountain View – areas where newly minted IPO money is having an impact – but also in more modest, middle class areas such as San Jose’s Cambrian neighborhood. The trend appears to be spreading.

What Silicon Valley home sellers need to know and do to attract multiple offers

If you’re a Silicon Valley home seller, what do you need to know to try to get multiples on your home?  What should you beware of?  In short, here’s what needs to happen if you want to attract multiple offers on your home for sale:

1. The home must be turnkey, either fully remodeled or close to it – it must look like there’s nothing or very little for a buyer to do.  In addition to being turnkey, it must be squeaky clean and well staged! It needs to be comfortable – not too hot, not too cold. You want buyers and their agent to linger longer.
   
2. The price must be at or even under market value.  That is, you must be willing to price it aggressively.  Think it’s worth $1,050,000?  You might list it at $999,999 to get in under a major price threshold and to be the very best, most attractive property for the money. Yes, it might be under priced.  Over priced listings get either one offer at best or, more likely, none at all.
3. The property must be highly accessible. If it is hard to see, you probably won’t get multiple offers (and may get none at all).  (Please see articles on accessibility and on open houses.)
4. Finally, the property must be well marketed.  This includes a wide range of factors ranging from photographs, text, fliers, signs, and even the commission rate offered to the buyer’s side.

What Silicon Valley home buyers need to know and do to compete with multiple offers

If you’re a Silicon Valley home buyer, how do you win out in multiples without giving away all of your rights or overpaying for your house/home?

Over the last few years, I’ve written a number of articles about multiple offers and tips for buyers when competing (concepts to beware of, issues around contingencies, financing and more).  This is a bit like a multi-chapter ebook on how to work with multiple offers.  I hope it’s helpful!

By way of quick summary: you must cover a few areas very, very well:

1. You must be pre-approved by a reputable lender (fully pre-approved)
2. You must have a strong down payment (20% or more)
3. You must be willing to put 3% down for your initial deposit (also called a good faith deposit)
4. You must have a good agent helping you – he or she must do a good job completing the paperwork (it needs to be thorough and without any major mistakes), must communicate well with the listing agent and represent you and himself/herself as a great team with which the listing agent and sellers will want to work
5. You must have an excellent sense of pricing.  Your Realtor should “run the comps” for you, or may even prepare a competitive or comparative market analysis on the home you wish to purchase.  Pay attention to where the value  lies – sometimes that has little to do with the list price!
6. Be prepared to balance out the price and terms offered so that you do not feel like you are giving away all your rights.  Some real estate agents may push consumers to write contracts with no contingencies for home inspection, property condition, appraisal or finance.  I believe that this is a risky and unwarranted practice – but learn about it since your competitors may be doing this.
7. Read all of the articles below – they are here to help you!

Tips for Writing a Competitive Offer  Part One

Writing an Offer in a Multiples Situation? Financing Tips Part 2

Writing Strong Offers: More Financing Tips Part 3

Tips for Home Buyers Competing Against Multiple Offers – More Financing Tips Part 4

Competing Against Multiple Offers: Contingencies and Timeframes Part 5

Real Estate Purchase Offer Terms to Consider When Competing in Multiple Offers  Part 6

Sometimes the List Price Isn’t the Expected Sales Price, So Run Comps!

The Advantages of Presenting and Receiving Offers In Person

Interested in working with an agent who’s highly experienced with multiple offers?  Call or email me today!

The Los Gatos real estate market for houses & duet homes looks pretty good at first glance, but if you scratch the surface and analyze some of the sub-markets, we see that it varies widely as to how “the” market is faring. (It’s not one market, but many smaller markets near each other.)

Yesterday I spent some time pulling apart the housing market in Los Gatos (for houses and duet homes, not condos) by school district and price point to get the months of inventory.  Here’s a brief summary:

The market gets substantially colder as you go up in price – read more and get more details on Live in Los Gatos!

More reading…

How’s the Los Gatos Real Estate Market Doing Now?
Please also view the current statistics care of Altos Research on my popehandy.com site on the Los Gatos real estate market (uses list prices rather than solds):
How’s the Real Estate Market in Los Gatos?

Often on this blog we look at specific, hyper local real estate markets in Santa Clara County (as with Saratoga, Campbell, Los Gatos, or even a larger city such as San Jose – or parts of it such as Almaden or Cambrian – or even subsets of any of those). Today, though, we’ll check in on Santa Clara County as a whole, which is home to 1.8 million people and many diverse markets.

The number of homes being sold in Silicon Valley is trending upward now. Prices, though, while higher than a month ago are down about 5.4% from a year before. Let’s see it visually:

Pricing of houses sold in Santa Clara County

Both median and average sales prices are shown in the graph below (which is from the printable version of my Santa Clara County Real Estate Report; you can also view an online version at popehandy.rereport.com). Note the trends with several “peaks and valleys” over the last five years or so.

To check on particular areas within the county, please visit my RE Report and select the city, town, or area within San Jose that you want to better understand.

Homes in Saratoga, CA: real estate market trends and statistics for houses as well as condominiums and townhouses.

The real estate market in Saratoga improved a bit last month. But, as always, it really depends on what subset of the market you’re considering. It will be much different between price points, for instance (as well as between school districts, proximity to town, views, acreage, etc.). Today we’ll review the broad trends in Saratoga 95070 to get a general feel for the conditions but this could be very different for the home you own or want to purchase because real estate is always very local.

Let’s start with the months of inventory, or the absorption rate. I ran the numbers from MLSListings.com, our mls provider, this afternoon. The numbers below reflect all houses (or duet homes) in Saratoga, CA 95070. With months of inventory, the lower the figure the “hotter” the market or the more in the seller’s favor it is. Six months is said to be balanced. For Saratoga as a whole, there are 4.17 months of inventory or MOI right now. That’s not bad. It’s a seller’s market but not strongly so. But what if we look at subsets of the market? Let’s try it by price point.

We could drill this data down by any number of factors to see what the hyper local’s market climate would be like. The mix could include sale type (distressed properties, short sales, bank owned homes vs “regular sales”), various school districts, a “walk to town” location, horse properties, homes with views, newer construction, historic homes. etc.

Schools are always a big deal in terms of market drivers. Saratoga has 3 high school districts and 4 elementary school districts, and understanding those boundaries can make buyers a little crazy. Anyway let’s tease this out just a tad by looking at the MOI for Saratoga by high school district to see what we get.

• Homes feeding to the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District (Saratoga High) have 4.71 months of inventory (a bit cool but still in the seller’s favor)
• Houses which belong to the Campbell Union High School District (Prospect High School) have 3.71 months of inventory
• Properties in the attendance area of the Fremont Union High School District (Cupertino school, Lynbrook High School in Saratoga) enjoy 2.5 months of inventory (a pretty good, strong seller’s market)

Why such a big discrepancy, and why are homes in the Prospect High area selling so much better than those in the Saratoga High area? I believe that the answer has to do with the graph above – most of the homes in the Prospect and Lynbrook attendance areas are more affordable than those in the Saratoga High area, and as we know, the more expensive houses for sale in Saratoga are having some trouble selling. Unless we pulled these out by both school district and price point (and perhaps more factors, too), we can’t be sure but I think it’s the most likely cause.

Overall, though, we can see that in Saratoga right now it’s a whole lot easier to sell homes under $2,000,000 than over. Interestingly, it’s slightly easier to sell a home between $1 million and $2 million rather than lower than that. I believe that’s because homes under that price point are not in the highly prized Saratoga (or Cupertino) school area.

Right now, high end or luxury homes in Saratoga are difficult to sell. This will be more true if there are any “issues” (such as being too close to high voltage power lines or a noisy location). This may change. With the recent IPO of LinkedIn, there may be some newly minted millionaires who will not find the commute from Saratoga to be too far. They cannot buy just yet, but in a few months we may see an improvement in the market of these upper tier price levels. Watch this spot!

Luxury or estate home buyers: if you are looking to purchase a home upwards of $2,000,000, you might consider doing it before you are competing with Linked In money. Just a thought.

Next, let’s look at the most current REReport for Saratoga, using the closed sales from April. This month’s closed numbers will be available about 6-10 days into next month.

It has been a mixed bag in the Saratoga real estate market with both the median sales price and average sales price slipping until recently; pending sales were up, though, and closed sales were flat. Overall, it’s still a buyer’s market there. (Click on the link for a full report.)

Median List Prices of Saratoga Homes for Sale

First, a graph displaying the overview of the median list prices for condominiums and single family homes in Saratoga – all price quartiles combined:

In general, the seller’s market is showing itself for houses in the fact that list prices are rising. Not so with condo and townhouse pricing. That’s a much cooler market.

Next, the median list prices for single family homes with a breakdown by price quartile. (Please note that the info would be even more precise if broken down by school district, but this particular program doesn’t yet filter by schools.)

In most price points, the list prices are now rising slightly, but most of all in entry level homes. In the last few months we’ve seen the high end home sales start to pick up in Saratoga, with a good run up in late 2010 before sliding earlier. Starting to improve now, though.

And now, list price of condos by price quartiles.

Interestingly, the condo market is not enjoying at all the decent seller’s market seen among houses in this city. Every price point appears to be suffering, but the high end most of all.

Inventory of both houses & condos in Saratoga

It’s seasonally typical to have more inventory in summer than other times of the year. Going back a few more years (see below), please note where the peaks are found – always sometime in summer. (Single family homes only.)

It’s less clear, but still visible, with condominiums and townhouses in Saratoga:

Average Days on Market for Saratoga Homes for Sale

Houses by quartile is not much different – DOM was rising across all price points and has been since August until spring, when the bottom and two quartiles (blue and green) reversed the trend. These are the “hotter”or improving segments of the market right now.

It is strangely disjointed in the Saratoga Condo market, though. I can’t explain why this had been so “all over the board” based on just this data. But since August, all four groups appear to be following the same general trend.

My suspicion is that the homes with the better schools are faring the best, but that’s just a hunch based on how well homes usually sell – it’s not provable with this info at hand.

If you’re interested in buying or selling a Saratoga home, please contact me. I’ll be happy to meet with you for a no obligation initial consultation.

Saratoga Real Estate Listings – Saratoga Homes for Sale – Condos, Townhouses & Houses for Sale in Saratoga

If you’d like to browse Saratoga homes for sale, I invite you to have a look here! Below please find all properties currently listed as available on our local MLS. Please be advised that there are a number of different property types and school districts listed here. For more precise information on houses, condos or town houses on the market, please contact me via email or complete a form at SiliconValleyHomeHunt.com or on my popehandy.com website. Either way it will come to me and I will personally set up your search for a Saratoga property. (If you are moving to the South Bay area from far away, please also see my Silicon Valley relocation website for helpful tips.)

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 90. See more city of Saratoga real estate.
(all data current as of 5/25/2012)

1. $2,350,000 : 19632 Glen Una Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 2,350 sq ft

   Lot size: 43,560 sqft
   
2. $1,200,000 : 18564 Paseo Tierra, Saratoga
   
   3 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,946 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,744 sqft
   
3. $2,498,000 : 18599 Avon Ln, Saratoga
   
   5 beds, 4 full baths

   Home size: 3,992 sq ft

   Lot size: 42,253 sqft
   
4. $1,198,000 : 20376 Knollwood Dr, Saratoga
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,803 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,680 sqft
   
5. $1,550,000 : 13663 Howen Dr, Saratoga
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,128 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,370 sqft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a cold “buyer’s market” overall.  But look closer and it is something of a mixed bag.  Prices are better for buyers, but there’s not much from which to pick.

Almaden Valley Inventory of Houses for Sale

Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory.  What’s happening?

First, let’s see what “usually” happens in he 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale.  Here’s a look at the last 6 years, care of Altos Research:

Normally our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later.  This year it looks like we have hit the bottom and inventory is nudging up again, but not as dramatically as we have seen in recent years.

Perhaps the whole cycle is running a little late.  The peak in 2009 was around July 1st, but in 2010 the peak was around October 1st – it does move around a little.

Since we are seeing somewhat softer prices than a year ago, a couple of my clients have told me that they’ve decided to hold off on selling for now.  It is very possible that they are representative of how other sellers are feeling too – so there may be a little restriction on inventory this season while prices are down.

The impact on sales is not hard to predict: more of the available inventory is being bought up.  Often the ratio of pendings to available runs anywhere from about 50% to 70% (so 1 pending for every 2 available = 50%).  Right now, though, the ratio is 81%.  Buyers still have to buy.  (So sellers, the odds are better for selling now as opposed to when there’s more inventory.)

How are the Days on Market in 95120?

Here’s a view of all price points in Almaden over the last 3 years combined:

Next, one year with the four price quartiles separated out. See how much tougher it is to sell a “luxury home” than “entry level” in this part of San Jose now. All but the highest tier are improving now.

What about list prices of Almaden homes for sale?

The median list price is slipping, which is great for buyers – if they can find anything that they want to buy!

And here’s the data by price quartile across all of Almaden for the last year:

Remember, please, that it may vary if you’re in a more or less desirable area, have more or less land, the house is more or less remodeled, etc. – these are general trends!

Looking closer in time, let’s have a peek at the last 30 days:

It’s pretty flat in the lower price points right now.

Median List Price Per Square Feet in San Jose 95120

Anyone buying now has the benefit of getting much more house for the money than a few years ago:

Here’s a look at the last year by price quartile:

Finally, if interested, you can see how this area compares to others nearby – if you like what you see, you can sign up to get updated weekly.

How are the sales of condos and townhouses in the San Jose, Santa Clara County or Silicon Valley area? Just as with houses, the market is getting more active… things are picking up.  The trend is for increasing sales – pending condo sales in Santa Clara County are rising each week.

Nov 1 – Nov 7 = 116 newly sold (sale pending) condominiums and townhouses
Nov 8 – Nov 14 = 123
Nov 15 – Nov 21 = 129

Year over year, it’s up dramatically too.  Nov 1 – 22 2009 = 234 newly pending sales and Nov 1 – 22, 2010 = 366 newly pending sales (that’s a 64% increase).  That is a very huge increase!

Looking at closed sales and comparing it to two or three weeks ago, we see improvement.  Here’s a graph showing the months of inventory for condominiums and townhouses in Santa Clara County, San Jose, Sunnyvale and Los Gatos (as samples). Below please find the months of inventory for all sale types (REOs, short sales and regular sales) and just short sales.  Countywide and in most places, it remains much harder to sell a “short sale listing” than a regular one.

Los Gatos is odd in that the short sales are going faster than the regular sales.  As you can see, that’s not the norm for the county!  My best guess is that the good schools and low prices make short sales in Los Gatos very attractive.  We might find this same trend in other areas with exceptional schools such as Almaden, Saratoga, Cupertino and Los Altos.

Sunnyvale is still struggling but it has improved from the last time I checked the numbers on Nov 13 2010.

Last month we heard that residential real estate sales were off about 25% nationwide year over year (closed sales) and it was just as bad for home sales in San Jose (statistics show that sales were off 34.8% for closed sales of houses but up 5% for pending sales) and in Silicon Valley generally (closed house sales in Santa Clara County down 28.5% and pending sales up 5.3%).  Pending sales were up around 10% month over month.

Houses in Silicon Valley are Selling Faster and Faster

Pending house sales are on the rise and it’s  now dramatic.  At first I thought it was just me: in the last 30 days, I’ve put five sales together of houses and townhouses (one in Livermore, one in Foster City, one in Campbell and two in San Jose – both in the Almaden Winery neighborhood on the Cambrian/Almaden border).   But it’s not just this faithful blogger who’s seeing a surge in selling activity and accepted offers.  These are clearly trends in the local south bay market.

I just spent a little time on MLSListings.com and checked the numbers of newly pending sales in the city of San Jose:

• Nov 1 to Nov 7, 2010:  159 new pending sales in San Jose
• Nov 8 to Nov 14, 2010: 163 new pending sales in San Jose
• Nov 15 to Nov 21, 2010: 198 new under contract or pending sales in San Jose

If I check sales from 11-1-2010 through 11-22-2010 there were 566 this year but just 386 for the same period last year in San Jose.

Ditto that for all of Santa Clara County: from Nov 1 – 22, 2009 there were 666 pending sales but Nov 1 – 22, 2010 it was 954! 

What’s the cause of all this? Most likely it’s the incredibly low interest rates, which are scraping the bottom and are at about 60 year lows.  My mortgage broker and mortgage banker friends are insanely busy with sales and refinances.

And what does this mean for you, a home buyer or seller in Silicon Valley?  A couple of things:

Silicon Valley Home Sellers: often people pull their homes off the market between Thanksgiving and the New Year or wait until after the holidays to put their home on the market.  This year, perhaps you want to rethink that strategy.  Homes that have been “just sitting” on the market are in some cases now seeing multiple offers.  I have seen this in my own practice.

Silicon Valley Home Buyers: you may not be able to get away with “low balling” homes even if they’ve been on the market awhile because many other buyers who have been watching the market are now jumping in with both feet.  Study the comps and write a realistic offer if you want the home!

Next week I’ll be putting a Willow Glen house on the market so have been paying attention to the trends & statistics for this charming part of San Jose.  Here’s a look at the absorption rate for Willow Glen houses and duet homes (numbers run yesterday) by price band.

Willow Glen Months of Inventory June 17 2010

My Real Estate Report provides numbers (which I don’t have to crunch!) on a monthly basis for all of Santa Clara County, including the Willow Glen (area 10, mostly 95125) part of San Jose.  It’s a good, broad view of the Willow Glen market overall.  Here’s the summary for the  May 2010 Real Estate Report for Willow Glen – June’s info will be out sometime in early July. Click on the link to get all the data rather than just this quick view.

The Willow Glen real estate market trends are up month over month for the median & average sales prices, but the average sales price is still down year over year.  Pendings are down compared to April (possibly a reaction to the federal home buyer tax credit?) and year over year.  The list price to sales price ratio is up, though, and the days on market are shorter.

Looking at both sets of numbers, mine and the REReport’s, it is clear that the homes priced up to about $900,000 are the ones leading the recovery, and that the most expensive homes are not selling well at all.  When we began to see improvement in the market, it was first entry level houses that were selling well.  Eventually it spread to the move-up market, both here and throughout Silicon Valley.  Will it continue?  The very high end homes in Santa Clara County are selling much better than they were a year ago, but as you can see, there’s still loads of room for improvement for the luxury homes market.

In Almaden Valley, like in other parts of San Jose and Silicon Valley, some parts of “the market” are hotter than  others.  The real estate sweet spot appears to be homes priced in either the entry level or move-up markets – but things cool considerably as the homes become more elegant, grand and luxurious.  (This appears to be true across all of Santa Clara County: the most affordable homes are still the hottest segment of the realty market.)

Months of Inventory in Almaden Valley

Here’s how the current inventory and sales breaks down, together with the months of inventory, for the Almaden Valley part of San Jose (95120 zip code). Info from MLS Listings deemed accurate but not guaranteed. The “closed” column represents homes closed (houses & duet homes) in the last month.

As you can see, up to about $1,200,000 it’s a very strong seller’s market with less than 2 months of inventory. But beyond that price point, it’s suddenly a completely different market and is instead a very strong buyer’s market.

What about distressed property sales in Almaden?

There are almost no bank owned properties currently for sale or recently closed in Almaden – just 1 in the entry level price band which is currently listed for sale.

There are not many short sales in Almaden: right now just 5 for sale: 3 in the lowest of these five price groups, 1 in the 2nd lowest and one in the highest. Closings among short sales are also few in number: 2 in the lowest price point and one in the second lowest.  The absorption rate or months of inventory among short sales was 1.5 in the lowest price point and 1 month in the second lowest. No closings among higher priced homes that were also short sales in the last month.

How About Home Prices in Almaden?

Altos Research (to which I have a subscription) has a wonderful system of charts which can display the market data in a wide variety of ways, but please be aware that they track list prices, not sold prices.

Here’s a look at the Median List Price of all Almaden Valley houses & duet homes over the last three years:

Notice all those dips? Now look at the dates – they all occur in January or in winter. It’s very consistent. So is the upswing in prices which follows. So to a degree, the up & down is somewhat predicatble or “seasonal”. We tend to see the lowest prices in winter – that’s true for most of Silicon Valley. It’s just that normally – if you were to track 30 years or so – you’d see that most of the time the overall movement in price is up, rather than down. It looks like the downward trend may be getting reversed, but it will take more time and data to confirm that.

Next, the same data but broken down into four equal price points or quartiles.

Taken together, the dips seem a little milder than might be accurate. Here’s just the top tier, median list price in Almaden:

Upper-middle tier:

Lower-middle tier:

And finally, the bottom tier:

Taken by themselves, the median list prices seem to be pretty negative news, though there’s now an “uptick” in progress.

Almaden Valley Days on Market

If we look at the days on market (which is a helpful number, but not as strong as the absorption rate), we see the drama that is our market change in much of the Almaden area. This next chart displays all price quartiles combined.

This is much more than a little reversal or a seasonally predicted trend. Let’s see how it plays out if we break down the quartiles separately:

It looks a bit chaotic, but please note that all four price groups are displaying the same change in the last few months – a very sudden, steep drop in the days on market or DOM. You may also be able to make out that the DOM tends to peak each year in the winter season. This part is normal and seasonally expected. What’s not normal is the “falling off the cliff” kind of change which is being experienced in all price points.

Inventory of Almaden Valley Homes for Sale

Almaden inventory of homes for sale, too, is a little reminiscent of the Giant Dipper over at the Boardwalk in Santa Cruz – lots of steep ups and downs over the last 3 years:

Each of the four quartiles has identical inventory patterns, so it is not helpful to break this one down by group.

Market Action Index in Almaden

Altos has its own proprietary “Market Action Index” by which they note if the market is more in the buyer’s or seller’s favor. For the Altos MAI, 30 is the cutoff – below that is a buyer’s market, and above that is a seller’s market. Here’s the MAI for all price points combined or “Almaden as a whole”

As a group (above), it’s very much a buyer’s market. But how about by price quartile?

Still a buyer’s market, but better for the less expensive homes, just as we saw when viewing the absorption rate or months of inventory at the beginning of this post. It might be clearer if we looked at a smaller window of time. Let’s see just the last 6 months:

Interesting that the upper middle (2nd from top) had been the “best” and has now fallen to second worst position. The very worst is reserved for the most expensive homes, which we also saw with the absorption rates.

Of all four price points, the lowest (or most affordable) is the one that seems to be improving the most. So we’ll see if this continues and it pushes through to hit the number where Altos would (also) call it a seller’s market. Based on the absorption rates shared at the beginning of this post, I would say that it already is a seller’s market in the bottom price points of the Almaden Valley real estate market. Conversely, the luxury home market in Almaden is taking a beating right now.

Get Historical Data on the Almaden Valley Realty Market

Want more information, with historical data on the Almaden Valley real estate market trends and statistics? Or data on the condominium & townhouse market in Almaden?  Please visit my Real Estate Report page for Almaden Valley homes, which is automatically updated monthly and contains monthly, quarterly and annual info dating back to 2001.

Find Almaden Valley Homes for Sale Now

What’s on the market or listed for sale in Almaden Valley right now?  Do a “real time” search that reqires no registration!

Search Almaden Valley Homes for Sale

Additionally, you may also search for homes by map.  This may appeal to you more if you want to be near a particular school, park, the community center, or any other landmark in 95120.

Search Almaden real estate for sale by map

If you search by map, the link above will pull up most or all of San Jose.  Almaden will be in the lower right corner of the map.

Just browsing? You can also view a list of homes for sale by price range
Almaden Valley Homes under $1,000,000
Almaden Valley Homes between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000
Almaden Valley Homes $2,000,000 and up

Cambrian Park is a district of San Jose which borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Almaden Valley and Willow Glen (the last two are also part of the city of San Jose).  It’s got a population of about 77,000 between the two main zip codes, 95214 (about 45,000) and 95118 (about 32,000 residents).  (There’s also a little sliver of 95008, but most of that area is covered by Campbell.) The 95124 area tends to be a little more expensive and a ittle less densely populated (7075 people per square mile in 95124 vs 7595 per sq. mile in 95118).

How’s the Cambrian real estate market?  Right now, it is a strong seller’s market.  This doesn’t mean that all homes are selling or that prices have returned to their peak, but in general, homes are selling briskly, much faster than a few months ago. As you can see from the Altos chart below, the average “days on market” has been falling over the last 90 days.  It is interesting to note that in the last 90 days, the more expensive area of Cambrian (95124) is selling a bit better than the more affordable.  This is a switch from the not so distant past, as you will see in the chart following this first one. (Charts below from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription.)

Average Days on Market for Cambrian Park homes for sale(San Jose zip codes 95124 and 95118)

We can look back further and see that the market does seem to have changed in recent months from the trends of the last few years. The longer time frame below also visually accentuates the change in the DOM. (Please note that from about 2007 to 2008 the 95118 area was selling faster – then the two areas were in a dead heat – and now 95124 is selling quicker.)

Average Days on Market for Cambrian Park, San Jose houses over last 3 years

Cambrian home buyers will tell you that homes are selling a lot faster than they used to, but also that prices are rising, especially among entry level priced homes. It is getting harder and harder, especially for first time home buyers, to get their foot in the door in Cambrian.

Cambrian Park, San Jose (95124, 95118) average list prices last 90 days

For those actively involved in the Cambrian Park real estate market, it’s no surprise that the sellers are now in the stronger position – especially if their homes are in good shape and well priced.

Perhaps the very best tool for understanding the realty market, though, is not a chart showing pricing or inventory or sales, but rather is the  absorption rate. This number factors the available homes or inventory to those which have closed in a recent period of time (it can be by days, weeks or months).

Next we’ll focus on the Cambrian absorption rate, particularly the “months of inventory“.  According to the National Association of Realtors, 6 months of inventory is a balanced market, less is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market. Today I ran the numbers from MLSListings.com using the sales recorded in the last 30 days to bring you current info on the Cambrian market and those are the figures we’ll use next. (“Sold” refers to homes which have closed escrow.)

For our MLS area 14, which corresponds to Cambrian Park, right now there are a mere 2 months of inventory for houses & duet homes.  By itself, this means that it’s a strong seller’s market in Cambrian.  That doesn’t tell the whole story, though.  If we break it down to “type of sale” (regular, short sale, bank owned) we get even better information. Here’s how these categories line up for the absorption rates or months of inventory:

As you can see, it’s twice as hard to get a “short sale listing” sold vs a regular sale type of property in Cambrian – regular sales are at 1.9 months of inventory while short sales are 3.8 months.  But the hottest segment of the market is bank owned homes, which are flying off the market (thanks to their bargain basement prices) at 1.1 months of inventory.

Want even more info?  Next, let’s look now at more of the info on listings and sales in Cambrian right now.  Again, I ran these numbers earlier today from MLSListings.com (deemed reliable but not guaranteed).

*The numbers reported usually add up to the “all” figure, but not always as there are a couple more categories not displayed here (referring to court confirmation required or not required for probate sales).

Takeaways on the Cambrian Market today:

If you are a home buyer wishing to purchase a house in the Cambrian area of San Jose, be advised, then, that the competition will be extremely steep on bank owned homes for sale, and that they generally go fast!  Conversely, the “softest” part of the market is short sales, so you may well get your best deal there – if you’re patient and can stand the wait. Even the softest part of the market is still a seller’s market, though.  To have a good chance of success you need great financing (at least 20% down or smaller down but with a conventional – not FHA – loan). FHA home buyers are simply getting creamed in this market – they cannot compete unless they are willing to pay above market value for a home (and most are not).

Home sellers, this info should help you with pricing strategies too. If there are a lot of short sales or bank owned homes on the market near your property, it will pull values down and the bank owned sales, especially, will siphon off traffic you’d like to have come through your doors. But if your home is in an area with few of these properties, you should be seeing some recovery in pricing.  If you get your home into top selling condition and price it aggressively, it should sell in well under a month’s time, possibly with multiple offers.

If you’re interested in buying or selling a home in Cambrian or anywhere in the “west valley”, please contact me today.