What’s the Silicon Valley real estate market doing? Silicon Valley is composed of many micro markets, and they may all behave independently of one another, but we are seeing some general trends.We’ll have a look at them today.  Things have really, really changed from six months ago. It’s very dramatic.

First, a city by city comparison of the numbers for the county and Campbell, Cupertino, Los Gatos, Saratoga, San Jose (as a whole), Sunnyvale, etc. This first chart is for houses in the cities and towns of Santa Clara County. On the first line, which is for the entire county, please notice the sales price to list price ration – it is over 100%.  This is perhaps the best indicator of the market heat we see here.  Also note how low inventory is for the county – from a year ago, it’s off 29.2% (and that year was low also).

Santa Clara County residential real estate statistics by city for single family homes March 2012

Perhaps not surprisingly, the sales price to list price ratio is highest in Palo Alto, where it was nearly 109%. Mountain View came in at 103%, Cupertino and Los Altos at 102%, Los Gatos, San Jose and Sunnyvale at a little over 100%.  Some areas, such as Monte Sereno, have so few sales that their numbers fluctuate wildly (in the case of Monte Sereno, best to look to similar areas of Los Gatos for the best sense of pricing, usually, as they share schools, parks, police etc.).

Next, the same type of data but for condominiums and townhouses rather than houses & duet homes:

Santa Clara County residential real estate statistics by city for condos & townhomes March 2012

The condo market has been taking a beating for years, but at long last, the sales price to list price ratio is now very close to 100% (99.9% for the county) and many areas are more than 100%: Campbell, Cupertino, Los Altos, Milpitas, Mountain View, and Palo Alto. Most of the rest of the county is at 99% with just a couple of exceptions.  What’s happening? The inventory here tells the story: county wide, it’s down 74% from last year.  In Campbell and Los Altos it’s off 75%.

Inventory is at record lows, buyer demand is way up: we have a strong sellers’ market with multiple offers and overbids

First, there’s extremely low inventory. In February there were just 1389 single family homes for sale in Santa Clara County.  A balanced market is somewhere around 3000 homes – so this is quite severe!  In fact, it’s the lowest amount of inventory for any February going back 10 years.  Here’s what it has looked like in other Februarys, per my Santa Clara County Real Estate Report (you can see these numbers yourselves):

2012  1389
2011  1812
2010  1739
2009  5443
2008  5338
2007  2876
2006  2235
2005  1412
2004  1672
2003  3410
2002  1965
2001  1784

Prices are moving up

Second, prices have started to climb in much of San Jose and other areas, especially in cities or towns with really good public schools like Cupertino and Palo Alto.  Talk of triple or other “dips” is long gone. Looks like 2009 was our low point for pricing, and since then we’ve been bouncing along the bottom – until now.

How do we know that they are rising? For those of us who are in the market, we are seeing it each time we have a listing that gets multiple offers and sells so high that we know that we have an “appraisal problem” or when we put offers out for buyers that are over list price with great terms but we lose out to a bidder who’s all cash and $100,000 over the list price, where there are NO comps to support it.  And that is what is happening right now in many areas and price points.

Also, of course, we can do the math.  I’ve been crunching numbers on what’s happening in Cupertino (insanely fast rising prices), Saratoga, Los Gatos, Campbell, Almaden, Cambrian, Willow Glen, Santa Clara and more  – all with rising prices very noticeably but not 10% per month, which appears to be what’s happening in Cupertino.

Other things are at play, too – unemployment is better, Apple stock is trading at $600 per share, and of course, there are IPOs happening on the Peninsula and in the South Bay.

How is this different from the seller’s market we’ve been in for the last few years?

It is true that it’s been a seller’s market for awhile here, but it was a seller’s market with soft or even falling prices.  Buyers were willing to buy as long as the prices were so low that they hurt.

Now the shoe is on the other foot.  Almost overnight, it went from a seller’s market with soft pricing to a seller’s market with rising prices, and in some areas such as 95129 with Cupertino schools, it’s dramatically rising prices.  Really not the same thing, though the following chart might mislead you into a complacent sense that nothing has really changed.  That would be a mistake.

Every market is good for someone. Right now, it’s good for sellers, especially if they are selling and moving out of the area. But many sellers continue to wait, hoping that in a year they will sell for much more.  They may well be right.  Meanwhile, the dire shortage of inventory combined with buyers who’ve been sitting  on the sidelines for years waiting for prices to quit falling have all jumped in at once.  It’s been like this before – it was like this in the late 80s when Jim & I were trying to buy our first home, and a decade later when we did our move up.  We saw craziness in 2000 and again in 2006-2007.

The risk, of course, is that in this overheated market, what we really have is another bubble.  It’s certainly possible but one never knows when it’s happening if that’s the case or not.   To those sellers who want to wait, please understand that this can be a risky game. It’s very hard to time the exact top or bottom of the market.  If you are ready to move, analyze everything.  What you hope may be the sales price in a year may or may not be there.  It could be better than today, it could be worse.  My sense is that it is likely to be better but we don’t ever know what’s around the corner.  If you are thinking of selling now, the opportunity is fantastic.  Call or me if you’d like to discuss your plans and hopes.  I’ve been selling homes since February of 1993 and know the ups and downs of the market in Silicon Valley.

Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor

Working with home sellers and buyers in Santa Clara County
and focusing on the “West Valley” areas of Los Gatos, Almaden, Cambrian, Saratoga, Willow Glen, Campbell, Cupertino, Monte Sereno, Santa Clara, and other parts of San Jose and the rest of Silicon Valley

Sereno Group
408 204-7673
mary (at) popehandy (dot) com

The condominium & townhouse market is improving dramatically now.  It is evident both in looking at the stats countywide and in my recent experiences holding open my townhouse listings in Saratoga and Sunnyvale as well as recently participating in the sale of a townhome in Almaden Valley (representing a buyer) – all different areas and price points but all very active.

Here are the numbers for May sales of condos and townhomes for all of Santa Clara  County:

As you can see, the days on market are shrinking and prices (both median and average) are rising.  A few numbers cut back slightly in May: the sale to list price ratio retreated a little to 99.9% and the pending properties went down a little too.  But the number of sales were up.

The “months of inventory” or absorption rate is a great way to know how much of a buyer’s or seller’s market it is in any given place. Six months is considered balanced, less is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market.  Here are the months of inventory for selected communities in the “west valley” area of Silicon Valley – they are all “seller’s markets”, but some are strong and some are approaching balanced:

Of course, this is still painting with a broad brush.  The absorption rate for any of these areas may not be accurate for the various price points or school districts that might be found there.  For instance, a large luxury townhouse in Los Gatos which is downtown might be a really different type of market than a small, entry level one bordering Campbell or Cambrian Park.

What everyone’s wondering is if this seller’s market for condominiums and townhouses will continue despite the end of the federal home buyer credit.  To utilize that credit, homes had to be in contract by April 30th.  Most of those should be closed now, or nearing that date at best.  So we’ll really know more as we move into summer. My sense, though, is that what’s driving this market is much more the affordable prices of homes and of loans. The credits are a bonus, but many in Silicon Valley make too much money to be able to use them.

For information on your particular part of the Silicon Valley condo or townhome market, please give me a call or email me!

It is a fairly strong seller’s market in the Cambrian Park area of San Jose.  Sales are up, inventory is down, and the list price to sales price ratio is at almost 102%.  Days on market are down for houses (which make up most of the market).  Some indicators are still negative but most are improving.

 Here are the numbers from my online Silicon Valley Real Estate Report for single family homes – houses & duet homes (click on the link for the whole report):

And for the condo and townhouse market in Cambrian Park, things are looking up quite dramatically, with prices even higher than a year ago:

Days on market are still a bit slow but other indicators are quite strong.

Generally, it appears that the bottom of the market is well behind us in Cambrian Park.

Now let’s look at pricing by price quartile and zip code, using stats from Altos Research (by permission) . NB these are list prices, not sold prices (numbers from RE Report, above, use sold data).

Houses (and duet homes)

Cambrian Park, single family homes (houses & duet homes), 95124 List Price by Quartile:

Cambrian Park, single family homes, 95118 List Price by Quartile

Condominiums and townhouses in Cambrian Park

In 95124:

In 95118:

And now for a “super simplified” overview – all quartiles combined, both condos and single family homes’ list prices by zip code:

For information on the home you want to buy or sell, please contact me today!

The post below was written in October 2009. To see the most current posts on Willow Glen and the real estate market there, please click on this link to see all related posts with the most current on top. At the bottom of this post, I’ll add links to some articles which are specifically related to the Willow Glen real estate market trends & statistics, too.

Willow Glen is an interesting, varied, historic, scenic and upscale part of Silicon Valley.  It is convenient to downtown San Jose but has its own distinct history; even though it’s been part of the city of San Jose for nearly 75 years, ask a Willow Glen resident where he or she lives and the answer will be “Willow Glen”, not San Jose.

I’ll use Altos Research for my source (a subscription I have & have the right to reproduce images etc here). Since 95% of Willow Glen is composed of 95125 zip code, that’s what we’ll use. The graphs below are dynamic so although I’m posting this in fall of 2009, the charts should be accurate in the future too. NB, Altos uses list prices.

List prices for San Jose, 95125 over the last 12 months by price quartile:

Average days on market for San Jose, 95125 over the last 12 months by price quartile:

Average inventory levels for Willow Glen (95125):

Median price per square foot (95125):

Average price per square foot in 95125:

Listings absorbed (homes sold):

Median market action index (below 30 is a buyer’s market):

As the last chart indicates, there’s a lot of variation in “the” Willow Glen market. Willow Glen is extremely diverse, with a wide range of pricing, styles of architecture, age of home, lot size, and neighborhood type.

Within Willow Glen, there are many neighborhoods, each with a unique charm and personality.  Palm Haven, close to the downtown Willow Glen shopping area, does feature not only a lot of palms (royal & fan palm trees), but beautiful architecture: mediterranean, craftsman, and more.  On the southwestern side of Willow Glen you find a delightful pocket of Eichler homes, spacious and lovingly maintained. Cherry Acres and the Dry Creek Road area boasts spacious homes, large lots, big trees and a graciously winding road for which the latter area is named.  Canoas Garden is one of the more affordable sections of Willow Glen and is set between Almaden Expy and 87.  Other Willow Glen neighborhoods, such as Lincoln Glen, feature ramblers, traditional homes, and in some areas, not a few willow trees too. Hacienda Gardens straddles the border between Cambrian Park and Willow Glen; these homes are on the more affordable end of the scale too.Ages of Willow Glen homes range from very large and old (you will find quite a few Victorians and even an original adobe in WG) to very new (mediterranean style, two stories, on a 4000 SF lot).

Each part of Willow Glen may have its own “real estate market” or micro climate.  Additionally, the market can vary depending on price point, precise location, or school district.  Most of Willow Glen is in the 95125 zip code, but a sliver is in 95124.  A  portion of each of these zip codes belong not to the San Jose Unified School District, but to Campbell Schools.  So while the graphs and info above are accurate to the best of my knowledge and ability for Willow Glen as a whole, it may not reflect your home’s exact situation. Please contact me for a personal, confidential consultation on selling your Willow Glen home, or you are looking to purchase a Willow Glen home for sale now.

Related Willow Glen articles on this Valley Of Hearts Delight Blog:

Willow Glen Market Update in Brief for June 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010

The Condo and Townhouse Market Update in the West Valley for June 2010
Saturday, June 5th, 2010

(This is a comparative post which includes multiple Silicon Valley areas together with Willow Glen.)

The Micro-Markets of the San Jose Neighborhood of Willow Glen Saturday, March 20th, 2010

The Willow Glen Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics
Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

It’s Not Your Imagination: There are Fewer Homes to Choose from in Silicon Valley
Tuesday, June 16th, 2009

(This is a comparative post which includes multiple Silicon Valley areas together with Willow Glen.)

The Almaden Valley real estate market is complex – “how it is” very much depends on the price point, school district (there are several in Almaden) and neighborhood.  The broad overview and the micro-view of this San Jose area are both helpful to buyers and sellers. Today we’ll do a little of each. (Graphs courtesy of two subscriptions I have: one is the REReport and the other is Altos Research. Both used by permission.)

First let’s see how Almaden Valley homes for sale fared in recent months, in 2008 and in recent years. Then we’ll have a look at the current situation. Here are a couple of graphs that make clear the condo market in this part of Silicon Valley:

Inventory has been rising in recent months, and sales have been declining fairly steadily in recent years.  If you have friends who sell homes or home loans and work the Almaden or Silicon Valley market, you already know that things have been worsening for quite awhile.

Now let’s look at the single family home market; first is the the days of inventory over the last 18 months or so and then the number of sales in Almaden over the last few years.

The patterns among single family homes in Almaden are even more clear in terms of the numbers of sales: it’s a straight decline.  Time on the market has fluctuated a little but the overall movement has been for longer time to sell a home.

So that’s a look back in time, using sold data.

Now let’s have a look at “real time” or more current market information using the currently available homes for sale (and list prices).

How long does it take to sell a home in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? Below please find graphs indicating the average “days on market” for the 95120 zip code, which is the same as the boundaries of the Almaden Valley area of San Jose.  The data is divided by price quartile, since sometimes the market is different from one price point to the next.

First, a look at condos in San Jose, 95120:

Next, the graph for single family homes in San Jose 95120:

While there’s some variation, the patterns are fairly consistent: the days on market were lowest last summer but rose again and are generally higher than they’ve been in recent history.  Obviously, the longer it takes to sell a home, the worse it is for sellers and the better it is for buyers.

How about levels of inventory? First let’s view the condos and then the single family homes.

Next, we’ll see about the inventory of single family homes in the Almaden district of San Jose:

Surprisingly, the inventory levels are almost identical across both housing types and price points. This is often not the case!

Finally, the issue that is most important to home buyers and home sellers in Almaden Valley, in Silicon Valley or virtually anywhere: pricing. How are home values holding up? How is affordability?

Among Almaden Valley condos, real estate median list prices are falling, but not at the same rate or level across all price points. The lowest priced homes appear to have had the “steadiest” pricing, and the second highest price point appears to have had the most volatility.

Finally, we’ll look at the single family homes’ median list prices by quartile in Almaden.

Here we see that the lower priced homes, the more affordable ones, are not coming down in list price nearly as much as in the high end prices. Relative to the rest of Santa Clara County, Almaden home values are holding up pretty well.  While some areas see a change of 35% in the median price, here we see that it’s often within 10%.   This is also true in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cupertino, Los Altos, Palo Alto, and anywhere in which the incomes are higher than normal and schools are much better than average.

It is reinforced that the old adage about the importance of location is not just something for days gone by, but is equally true today.

In sum, the bargain prices are not going to be found in Almaden as they are in some parts of the Santa Clara Valley. But at the same time, it appears that these homes, whether houses, townhomes or condos, will “hold their value” better than normal too. 

This is, of course, an overview. Your neighborhood, or the one in which you wish to buy, may be different.  The Graystone area is different than Oak Canyon, for instance – they have different school districts, different commutes, etc. For information on a particular area, please contact me today for a confidential consulation.

 If you are contemplating selling one home and buying another in the same general area, it may be that you need more space – or it may be that you simply want a home that’s updated and you’re not sure you want to experience, first-hand, the joys of remodeling.

Not too long ago, I stumbled upon a website to help folks work through this question:  www.RemodelOrMove.com.

Have a look. I think it’s pretty unbiased information that can help with this angle of the “move up” question.